40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Not a large leap of faith, at this point lol
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I'm not sure why one wouldn't simply call for HECS within a specified time window, rather than analog one of the most prolific months in local lore if that is what is trying to be conveyed. A Jan 2011 call is more than one event in my mind.
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Okay...that is doable. When I hear Jan 2011...I think 50" monthly total and 30" snowpack w ice Jams. One HECS? I can see that in this pattern.
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Apparently...
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It's gone. We know.
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Yea, saw the PNS, but not the map. Thanks! -
I agree. You put as much time in as you want, at the end of the day it's a frontier science.
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Yea, I get the snowfall part....you guys are right about that. The luck/unknown element makes it fun...like sports.
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Just kidding, bud.
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Its tougher with kids...I'm lucky I started a new job in August that affords me more downtime. I don't even do it at home anymore...which has done wonders for the marriage hahaha
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I'm going to go on Facebook and mark myself safe from James' mid range model analysis.
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There are plenty of crafts that we have honed as a society over the course of the past century....hell, decade. How do you think we got to that point? A different attitude would still have people in horse and buggies battling polio.
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I understand that I include snowfall in the seasonal outlook, and I admit that there is reduced value in that variable....but I do it because it is my love for winter weather that fuels my drive to complete the whole undertaking.
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It's funny how some people will never wrap their minds around the difference between forecasting a large scale hemispheric regime, and the subtle nuances in relation to the phasing of a cyclone. That is such a silly analogy...its not the same thing. "We can't even forecast a snowstorm 2 days out, how will be forcast a pattern 2 months out!" If you can't understand that, then you're probably better served to never venture into seasonal forecasting.
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Funny how its usually the guys who don't do them that shit on the effort....I think there have been enough successful efforts in general (not just me) to justify the value. Anyway, it's the best exercise for expanding your knowledge on the topic if nothing else.
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I would say 3/6 of mine have been very accurate. I've been better with la nina. I was 3/4, but past couple fraud nino events killed me.
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I have some hope for March. Like I said, I expect some fun to come in January.
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I would say if that happened, it would be a very early phase change event.
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I am confident February will not be great.
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Good luck with that.
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Sorry, dude....if we get to Jan 18 with nothing even on the table, something has gone wrong , regardless of your level of denial. Do I expect that....no.
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I'll tell you, give me Feb 2018 over what the long range GFS is selling verbatim.
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I honestly had a sinking feeling when I first started reading this back then......but once I started seeing shutouts to the mannerisms of prominent posters, I was like "you dick"....lol
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Anyone catch BOX totals map? Just checked FB and couldn't come across one...
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Yea, I got about two weeks left in me, and if the hunt hasn't paid off, or a payoff is not imminent, then I'll be ready for baseball.
