40/70 Benchmark

We'll both get the same amount of snow....story of the season here.

Well, that is one way to kill a cool, raw early spring day...

34.2

Even my area with a hundreth of a inch.

Yup, what he said-

Just nusiance level there in the MRV, I would think...

Its also possible nobody really knows how warm it will get, and where....

Absolutely bonkers, while MJO is dancing naked under the spray of fire hydrants in Brooklyn.

Man, I can't even win in spring model hallucinations.

Yea, it has been like pulling teeth to get any -NAO winter seasons for a couple of decades now....while I do agree with Larry that the solar cycle is a factor (min favored for -NAO), I also think CC maybe affecting the Atlantic pressure pattern.

Jesus, I think that piece of guidance is out of its tits, but I do like the cold trend..not thinking 28 IMBY midday tomorrow, though. I think the 00z INEEDSNOW maybe in error there.

Man...that tries to get a bit of glaze on the car tops here....nuts with it being 70 in SW CT.

I was speculating online with someone the other day that the front would probably end up closer to I 84 rather than the pike...always take the under when the ocean temp is 42F.

No severe for me, I guess

That is awesome....my sister-in-law just moved to DC Wed night, so good timing haha

I am honestly intrigued by this and my interests are usually pretty parochial. Should be a cool evolution....literally NE of ORH.

March Slightly Warmer Than Forecast West Pac Changes Lead to Warmer Outcome Despite PV Disruption The major assault on the polar vortex that begin just prior to the midway point of the month was very well forecast by Eastern Mass Weather. The following is an excerpt from research cited pertaining to the increased likelihood for late season SSWs during westerly QBO seasons that occur near solar max. These relationships between solar behavior and the NAO are evident in the graph above, with reds, denoting +NAO, very evident in the declining phase of the last several solar cycles. And Blue, indicative of -NAO, prevalent in the ascending portion of the cycles. What can also be deduced from the graphic above is that while solar max seasons are not as favorable as the ascending phase of the cycle for incidences of high latitude blocking, nor are they as hostile as the descending seasons. Thus winter seasons such as 2024-2025, which are near solar max, are not entirely devoid of blocking, however, nor is this season as prone to an intense round of late season blocking the magnitude of March 2023 given that the solar cycle was still ascending at that point. Be that as it may, solar max seasons are not entirely hostile to incidences of a disturbed polar vortex and this is evident when considering the best solar analogs of 1970 and 1999. There was a split of the polar vortex on January 17, 1971, a displacement on March 20, 1971 and a displacement on March 20, 2000. While there was an easterly QBO evident during the 1970-1971 winter, the polar vortex displacement (PV) that took place in March of 2000 occurred during a westerly QBO, as will be the case this season. Thus the latter displacement seems worthy of more consideration for the coming season. When considering the three primary QBO analogs of 2016, 2020 and 2022 within a solar context, although none took place during solar max, 2022 was the closest, followed by 2016 and 2020, the latter of which is a poor solar match having taken place near solar minimum. Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends credence to the late winter/early spring displacement scenario. The research clearly implies that a displacement of the PV triggered by a SSW beyond mid month is a distinct possibility based on the history of westerly QBO seasons that have occurred near solar max, and this is precisely what took place. Note the displacement of the PV in concert with the warming polar stratosphere that had already begun prior to mid month. The event continued to evolve until a reversal of the zonal winds occurred around March 20th, as suggested by the analogs. The research also suggested that any cold resulting from the PV disruption would be insufficient and/or too late to bias the monthly mean negative and that has also proven correct. Warmer & Drier Than Average March With Very Little Snowfall Eastern Mass Weather forecast anywhere from near normal top +2F positive mean monthly departures for the region, but this is likely to verify anywhere within a range of approximately +3 to +5F due in large part to the reversal of the prominent -WPO pattern this season. The lower heights in the vicinity of Northeastern Siberia in the +WPO composite are very apparent. This is consistent with the 500mb pattern throughout most of the month. As well as the aforementioned analog season of 2000, which perhaps should have been weighted more heavily throughout the pattern half of the season. It is fair to consider whether or not the behavior of the polar stratosphere had any impact on the evolution of the Pacific given the uncanny similarities. The drier than average pattern, especially near the coast, was well forecast and undoubtedly played a role in with southern New England saw very little snowfall throughout the month. March Conclusions The forecast for the month of March was not bad overall, however, its success was limited by an incorrect assessment of the WPO in conjunction with an underestimation of just how unfavorable the polar domain would be despite the major polar vortex disruption. The PNA was not a prevalent factor for the majority of March, but its decided descent into strongly negative territory to close the month may assist in mitigating any potential impacts of the ongoing stratospheric warming for the region.

The main wrench in my March forecast was the flip to big +WPO, which shifted the warm north and intensified it a bit. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/03/march-slightly-warmer-than-forecast.html

Thanks

Where are we at with the monthly departures at the major SNE climo sites? What is a good site for that? I had +1 to+3 F

69 ORH and 39 here. Now all we need is for a serving of 6" paste there with white rain here a in a few weeks.

The Pacific is seemingly becoming an even more pervasive driver. BTW, my early hedge is more of that bolded next year....maybe less so with respect to the AO, but its early.

Ok, gotcha. In that case, I agree that we haven't began to see the transition, but it should be fairly imminent.

No accumulation?

We're onto gypsie moths, installs and spring clean up at this point...and then we passive aggressively chastise those who don't keep up with our timeline.