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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. What a difference a week makes...I awakened to snow on the ground last Saturday.
  2. Same here....2013-2014 had above normal snowfall, whiile this past winter was brutal. However, obviosuly snowfall is subject to a high degree of variance and I do see the value in 2013-2014 as one of the better analogs.
  3. Yea, means a moderate-strong El Nino is probably off of the table, which we had all assumed.
  4. No, I didn't. The season was brutal. 34.25".
  5. Just started to rain and sleet 38.5/35
  6. Have a few more of those and then I'll send you a very fair trade proposal...
  7. Yea, looks like I had +.38 to +.68 for DM mean NAO.
  8. Awesome...also means may NAO forecast was good because we were in lock-step on that this year.
  9. My guess is up to 3" above 1000 feet in ORH CO and N CT and perhaps several inches well above that in the Berks.
  10. I think 4" is probably reserved for the higher spots of the Berkshires.
  11. Right...not bothering. Marginal enough at low elervation this time of year....if out of banding, forget it. We're onto next season.
  12. It will probably do that for most of the event since the best dynamics remain W of me.
  13. Crazy how often this general theme has reoccured over the last several years...always either that, or about 10 mi north of me in NH.
  14. I doubt its 3"+, but then again, I haven't a fu(k to give and have not viewed a model since early March-
  15. I have zero snow to show for it...what do you have, 2" since March 1?? Keep it going?? I suppose its better than 90s...
  16. Seasonal models often are too biased towards default ENSO regimes.
  17. Strictly ENSO.....I don't mean it was the best analog overall...
  18. I did expect the marginal La Nina to evolve into a Modoki event, which worked out. 2008-2009 was the best ENSO analog IMO.
  19. For sure.....kicked my ass in 2023, I made some adjustments and was better this season, though far from perfect. The +PNA/cooler temps was a bit of a curveball, but I did not oversell snowfall this time.
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