40/70 Benchmark

MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years.

Last trace of snow at the end of my driveway melted out today.

I certainly don't think we should be resigned to it.

I think a season like 1991-1992 is more of a threat than 2015-2016.

Absolutely, and we will be until the turn of the decade, but there are ENSO driven deviations from the multidecadal cycle....look at 1957....also near solar max and preceded by consecutive -PDO +ENSO events.

I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.

I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.

I'm not triggered at all....just having fun.

Ah.....it's the time of year when @snowman19begins scanning the globe ....he's finally come upon hieroglyphics scribbled on a pyramid that when translated, offers conclusive evidence that El Nino will in fact be east-based, and winter is doomed. Love the dude's passion.....he's very eclectic and cultured in the he finds a way to ram it up the keister of winter enthusiasts in 17 different languages between spring and fall.

it was mid-loaded with regard to snowfall here. I agree about needing one more major storm to be considered a great season...I said the same, exact thing.

Yea, I think my last piles should go today.

Father time is undefeated.