40/70 Benchmark

Just going by climo...not the depiction. Didn't look.

My area is likely porked......maybe CT is okay.

Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet.

First order of business is to determine whether or not El Nino will ultimately grow prohibitively strong.

It depends....if it gets over 2.0, it doesn't really matter where the anomalies are focused, it's going to torch. I made that mistake in 2015 and won't again.

Mass in general doesn't care....other areas don't get it.

MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years.

Last trace of snow at the end of my driveway melted out today.

I certainly don't think we should be resigned to it.

I think a season like 1991-1992 is more of a threat than 2015-2016.

Absolutely, and we will be until the turn of the decade, but there are ENSO driven deviations from the multidecadal cycle....look at 1957....also near solar max and preceded by consecutive -PDO +ENSO events.

I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.