40/70 Benchmark

This record warmth occurred in February 2018, a bit over two weeks earlier...also on the heels of the SSW, so while March is warmer this year...February was warmer in 2018. Like I said, timing is off a bit, but similar progression.

Well, in terms of snowfall, which is largely due to indiosyncracies.....first of all, the fact that the colder pattern is coming in nearly 3 weeks later hurts even if all of the storms materialized in an identical fashion. Secondly, the pattern we have coming up could have easily worked out in terms of a large storm on the east coast, but the timing is off, so it goes inland...those are the breaks. You are viewing this from a very reductive perspective......but in any event, snowfall along the east coast is actually ending up pretty similarly to that season, anyway, as January and February were snowier. If you expect an analog to line up 100% perfectly, I think you have some learning to do.

I know....just speaking of DFJ....we were on the same page with that. Thanks for your work on that, Chuck...I love integrating it into my stuff....it's lined up remarkably well with my polar composite past two years.

Part of the problem is the first reversal attempt narrowly failed...it succeeded on Feb 12, 2018.

Again, if you had read the post, the timing is about 3 weeks behind 2018...

Not very impactful in the traditional sense given that it wasn't a SSW, per se, however, I do feel that the very rare early season reversal predisposes the PV to disruption, and the polar domain to irregularities overall on a seasonal-level. Here is a composite of the two other seasons that had one: And this year: I definitely don't think it's a coincidence that we went onto to register a -NAO with high solar, which is exceedingly rare as you know from your research.

Yea, wasn't intended to be a lecture or anything....I just happen to quote your post because we were discussing. Thanks, I appreciate the positive feedback. It was not perfect and I do see room for improvement...will all be discussed in May.

Very strong -QBO and high solar is a dead-ringer for +TNH....that crap about solar max always being warm is BS....solar max and conspire with certain stratospheric set ups to facilitate some of the most consistently cold regimes possible.

I also wrote about the value of 2015, despite that it was a warm ENSO....highly anomalously cold several week stretch from +TNH regime January into Feb.

Yea, we haven't had much of that...coming later this week.

Perfect way to develop a composite...come up with a cast of characters, and explain that none of them are intended to be an exact prototype of the coming seasons, and then explain the role that each season will play and when it will appear. This what I love about winter forecasts...such an art form.

But it wasn't up against as hostile conditions...March was cold.