40/70 Benchmark

Funny, 2000-2001 actually had very hostile forcing...it's in the Modoki composite, but it's not a huge deal since it was weak and had the huge east QBO/Solar max attributed blocky polar domain.

Most great months do.

Yea, I mean its bette than a pure Modoki type composite, which is nowhere near 8.

Here is the money-week...

I'd hit it.

Eh...really skirting 8..was centered 6-7...but MJO wasn't much of a factor IMO.

Don't want the brutal cold and CF pinned to ACK...give me marginal with frigid SSTs.

I'm going to take a big interest in that pretty quickly if it keeps that up and other guidance follows suit...has my attention. I love, love , LOVE the fact that we poised to head into a strong east QBO/cool ENSO finish with potential strat implications and SSTs about as cold as can be.

I think we are going to get a similar pattern...maybe dates don't coincide precisely and we don't get 50" of snow, blah, blah....but elite analog IMHO.

Kind of like what the GFS is going VD Day.

It was COD.

This what I said earlier...if anything it was weak MC forcing, which had no impact.

Pattern def did NOT match phase 6-7, which makes sense because it was so weak...blocking from the Feb SSW ran the show.

Phase 6-7 Look like east-based to perhaps hybrid regime. From east to west...

I think we get at least a couple in the 40s.