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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    My El Niño intensity composites are pretty similar to his...few differences....notably, I consider 1972 as merely strong and 2009 as moderate.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA site is awesome, but my primary complaint about it is the inability to run composites.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's like your teaming having a lead in the top of the 2nd inning.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna touch upon this in my June blog in a few weeks....I feel like it's better to focus more on factors like this since it's pretty obvious where we are headed intensity wise, which makes the modoki value pretty moot.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jives with my early thoughts of a very warm December for the NE on par with 2006, 2015 and 2023...essentially a super/east-based composite. Looks like an early +WPO that maybe flips later in the season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you really like cold and snow? Sometimes I feel like your screenname is a sadistic manifestation of deep-seeded self-loathing.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not meant to imply it necessarily will again.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another nod towards 1997.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Usually the seasonal guidance will be biased towards stock ENSO, so when a seasonal model shows that output leading into an intense El Nino episode, it should provide reason for pause.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible.
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