40/70 Benchmark

That's about as boring a two weeks as you will find at peak climo.

The more you have, the more is lost to settling/sublimation.

The concern there is the gradient between the NAO block and the se height bump via RNA....I think I'd prefer to play it safe and just do overruning rather than try for a coastal in that setup.

Nice looking tarrot card.

+QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.

Seasonal forecasting is like any other challenging endeavor...put the work in to learn from your mistakes and you'll be successful. Some are challenge-averse and that can't be helped.

I've been feasting for 3 months TBH.

I beg to differ.

Separate.

That is my inclination.

Depends on orientation.

That would be surprising.

Vintage 1980s aluminum can haha

Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree.