40/70 Benchmark

John, was the reversal in early March from the bottom-up, too? I haven't bothered to look yet...

Yea, plenty of coastals to soak the marathon runners.

I would like to see that map for a later baseline.... What is the link for that data?

This is why I am beginning to use the language "reversal" instead of SSW because it more accurately denotes what I am actually forecasting. I don't really care whether it begins on the ground or in the strat. RE the "front-loaded" aspect....I think the only reason that worked out is because the early February reversal failed....had that succeeded, it would evolved differently, a la 2018 and 2001....as it was, it was delayed until early March, so we get the Feb 2018 like record warm spell in March, instead, and then the return to "winter" will engineer an April butt-bang for everyone due to the erosion of climo.

It was intended as a December-March analog, not April/May, so yea...maybe. Definitely in terms of the direction ENSO is headed.

Absolutely....never disagreed with that. If you look at my composites, February 2018 was one of my main analogs, but my timing was off...so we got it in March.

This season has a shot at something like that, but always a long shot that late...even if the pattern is favorable. This season is a prime candidate for April snowfall, though.

I was wondering about that season...would have to look. 2000-2001 comes close, but more for the interior...coast was susceptible to unfavorable tracks.

I don't think the January thaw set any records...it was a pretty run-of-the-mill mid-winter thaw.

It's too bed that reversal attempt in early February failed...that is the one I expected to land.

I mean..name we a winter without a thaw? The whole first half of 2014-2015 sucked....95-96 had the worst that I have seen. If you need to avoid thaws at this latitude to be an "A", then you're going to wait a loooong time...especially this day-and-age. I understand we had some Pacific trough periods....I predicted them 4 months ago.

It wasn't like this...big difference between 50 and 70.

It won't impact mine....only one of these all season and it waited until second week of March.

52.3..just finally mixed out around 8am.

Stay safe and find an interior room