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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I brought up Lily and Opal yesterday...Ivan was another.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see...should interesting to watch play out.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The western Pacific was absolutely warming faster than the eastern Pacific over the past decade. Good discussion....sure beats the hell out of "warm and rainy".
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand what you are saying, but I feel as though you are viewing it backwards....more heat in the western pacific absolutely triggers a stronger El Niño response from the tropical atmosphere because the earth is trying to redistribute said heat...why do yo think the strongest of El Niño events usually occur on the heels of solar max? Now, if there remains enough residual heat in the western Pacific, then it can create a competing influence that acts to mitigate the warm ENSO expression throughout the extra tropical hemisphere, as we saw in 2023...but let me ask you this...why do you think we have seen two warm ENSO events this strong just three years apart, which is unprecedented in recorded history....I know where my money is.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    How are we looking for latter October? Trying to get a feel for whether or not we can get away with doing my 7 yr old's Bday outdoors....looks kind of seasonable-ish?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doubt it...my call from yesterday still looks good...110mph peak overnight before a Destin, FL LF early Sat at 90mph. Famous last words....lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    On the east coast...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be a good flex tonight before it gets pummeled early tomorrow.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which is why it probably isn't a good idea to speak in absolutes....the issue that has been plaguing us for the past decade is that we have been mired in a perpetual state of MC forcing...if 2023 was buoyed in phase 6 and this is further east, then I'll take my chances with that.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the mean....not necessarily over the shorter-term due to more stochastic pattern flexes; there are also favorable periods within a bad season.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean this to be insulting, either....I have had some brutal forecasts....anyone being honest and transparent has.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way, it all boils down to a warmer baseline.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty sure Forky missed the nice season we had last year...honest question @forkyfork, what would you need to see to forecast a decent winter? It was petty obvious to a lot of folks that the combination of high solar/very strong easterly QBO and modest-eastern biased La Nina would yield a plethora of chances last winter.... I get that the ridges were larger, troughs smaller as compared to similar patterns 50 years ago...not the point-
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