40/70 Benchmark

@CoastalWxKnowing his measurements, he probably did come up with 2 feet.

Was there a need to measure?

I call BS on those hyper El Nino runs......I'm not sure why those shouldn't be getting the same weenies attached to them that @MJO812's day 10 blizzard maps do during the winter. I mean, tell me what the difference is....long range guidance displaying an either highly anomalous, or unprecedented occurence.

We are due to a snowier El Nino in the NE....2015, 2018 and 2023 all sucked. I can't find an instance of four consecutive in that regard, although I'm sure @bluewave can scan through the Era data base and find one from the 1700s. 1987 was a pretty normal winter. 1991, 1994 and 1997 all sucked...then we had 2002. 1951 and 1953 were poor...then came 1957. There is value in anecdotal analysis, as long as it's buttressed with more empirical research.

That CFS does not have any trouble whatsoever popping a SE trough....2023 that is not. I get the time range, but that is every bit as valid as these 3.0 El Nino delusions. I am willing to bet that if the CFS were right, we see that prism between the RONI and ONI narrow over the course of the year, eventually meeting roughly midway between 1 and 2 by next winter.

I'll gladly take somewhat above normal temps to get copious precip.

Yea, need to take him with a grain of salt...I have noticed that you can really treat folks in the met community like models. They all have something to offer, but you are best suited to become familiar with their biases and tendencies in order to know how to screen their feedback and view them through the proper lens. Webb never simply offers an opinion or a take...it's always an OPINION or a TAKE. Perfect example of what social media does to an otherwise fine met.

Saw Northfield in the news yesterday...rough spot!

Over an inch in the "higher terrain"....?

How much?

I think folks are getting carried away with it this early to be frank. Not to say that winter can still suck...nothing to do with that.

Yes.

I wouldn't be so sure.

I never realized CC was so XXX.

We're onto next season.