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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
Recent Profile Visitors
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No, I wouldn't. Did you see my May blog? -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added. Interesting. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Bob was a yawner for most.
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1.03" total rainfall.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It is. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2) is a comprehensive climate index used to measure the intensity and phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It improves upon single-variable indices by combining five oceanic and atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific: sea surface temperatures, sea-level pressure, surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, air pressure is an element of the MEI, I believe. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This is why I feel we want a high RONI during an El Nino event....the RONI represents a spectrum, or continuum if you will, of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific versus the baseline trend that is more reflective of CC, which is cool ENSO like. I think folks obfuscate this with the MEI, which simply measures the intensity of the warm ENSO coupling. RONI is not so much about the intensity of the coupling, but the war waged between ENSO and competing hemispheric forces. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not that it is going to flip on a dime, but the last -AMO cycle coincided with the negative portion of the multidecadal NAO cycle in the 60s. I think we are more likely to see a modified version of that (CC) around and after the solar min early next decade. This season should be decidedly positive. -
I don't think Boris would like that very much.
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February 1969 in May, yay.
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Perhaps you and @CoastalWxcan rent a cabin together in the wilderness of Maine?
