40/70 Benchmark

Yea, MC is going down...pretty clear.

100% dead-on. ...I just hit on all of that in he piece I just published...competing convective forcing nodes....one in the central Pacific in association with the western warm pool that was dislodged eastward, and one with the El Niño....we are now rooting for the same warm pool that we have spent the better part of a decade cursing out.

Good....not bad timing for a deviation from warm ENSO climo, especially a record one.

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview: A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html

Lots to unpack in this final El Niño update before the main Outlook in about 6 weeks time, but this weekend's major east coast storm may be a sign of what is to come. Here is one excerpt to provide a bit of a sneak-preview: A diligent forecaster that has engaged in an exhaustive analysis of the data will be acutely aware of the fact that the pattern across the hemisphere has grown much more representative of a healthy El Nino during the month of August. A forecaster of this ilk would position oneself to also be aware of a potential mid-season shift westward in the orientation of an El Nino that absolutely presents as east-based in the mean; not to mention a winter season that was exceptionally mild overall in the midst of a rapidly warming climate, yet managed to facilitate shorter-term unions between the arctic branch and the most impressive subtropical jet ever observed to author one of the more scintillating chapters in meteorological lore- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/09/record-el-nino-poised-to-trigger.html

I didn't need a blizzard to feel this way.

Imagine doing that with 100lbs of equipment under the stressful conditions in which they completed that task...

Awesome.

You mean impressive wind will be confined to the cape?? I had a great inside tip from my pal, climo....should have listened; dude knows his stuff-

Perhaps a few smashed pumpkins as they prep the razor blades for the trick or treat candy....

Just be leery that it may not be the wind if the bushes are reverberating.

I wonder if our resident -not-so-secret @CoastalWx admirer, Boris has put his clothing back on... @CoastalWx, take a peek outside your bedroom window and check...

Wow, that is probably too weak, but I'm balls-deep in ENSO right now, so only keeping peripheral tabs.

Doubtful....it's just unlikely to be as memorable as many starving weather enthusiasts would like.

I mentioned yesterday it's often overamped....I mean, it probably will have had the better idea when all is said and done, but it will also probably have capitulated to an extent relative to the more ominous runs.