40/70 Benchmark

I have probably 16-17"

About to...wanted to get the forecast out of the way so I can just weenie out after I lift today.

Oh, yea...I quickly decided today it was noise.

Yea, never had a blizzard with this much antecedent pack and so fresh on the heels of another storm with zero melting...

Worried about 15-25"? Not sure I follow...

Final Call: Severe Winter Storm Imminent This Evening Through Monday Widespread Closures Likely Monday-Tuesday Synoptic Overview A ridge has rapidly built over the inter mountain west during the day on Saturday and will ensure that two pockets of Pacific energy encounter a relaxed gradient on the east coast over the weekend, as heights over the southeast fall in response to the development of the aforementioned ridge out west. This represents a very favorable pattern for major storm development because the reduced gradient ensures that the energy is not sheared apart by the compressed flow between the polar vortex/block dyad to the north, and the southeast ridge to the south, in much same manner the previous two systems. It is because of this relaxed flow that the energy with these two disturbances can coalesce and phase beneath the block upon reaching the east coast by Sunday night. This is where it becomes apparent that the North American landscape has changed since this major storm was expected to remain south of the forecast area. Not only has the PNA ridge over the western CONUS trended significantly westward into a position ideal to foster the development of major east coast winter storms, but the system currently affecting the region also departs into the Canadien Maritimes at a slightly faster pace, which allows confluence to lift north. This is crucial because it the position of the PNA ridge and the confluence north of Maine that were cited as the reasons why this storm would not be unable to travel up the coast. Below is a juxtaposition of guidance from Tuesday morning (right) and Friday morning (left) to better illustrate these changes. The differences are apparent, and the discrepancy concerning the placement of the Western ridge is even more apparent when comparing guidance this morning (left) to last Sunday (right). It is these changes that leaves the forecast area, along with much of the east coast, poised to experience the full wrath of the impending blizzard of 2026. Expected Evolution Of Blizzard of '26 Snowfall should begin to work into the southwestern portion of Connecticut by around midday today. Snowfall should then work up to about the Mass pike by 10pm, and will rapidly become heavy Sunday evening south of about I 84 in Connecticut, as well as throughout Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Snow will spread into the remainder of the region by midnight, while areas of enhancement begin to take shape as the storm quickly ramps up. Note two distinct bands, one over southeastern Mass and one from southeastern New Hampshire into the east slopes of the Monadnocks and Worcester hills. These bands will also be augmented by an ample influx of moisture at the 850mb level, which will act to limit subsidence between the banding with the exception of the Connecticut river valley, and to a lesser extent, the western slopes of the Worcester hills and Berkshires, as these locales will experience a down sloping phenomenon that will limit snowfall somewhat. This is the portion of the storm on Monday morning that will feature blizzard conditions, as hurricane force wind gusts on cape cod induce moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion, as well as severe blowing an drifting of snow that will greatly impede cleanup efforts. It is as at this point, during the height of the storm from roughly dawn through mid-morning, that banding is likely to stagnate for an interval of time, creating considerable variation in snowfall across the region. Thus it is the precise placement of these bands, which is exceptionally difficult to diagnose, absolutely crucial to the snowfall forecast. Here is an assortment of the approximation of the band based upon the 700mb temperatures profile of several models. Note that the guidance on the top (NAM, EURO, EURO AI) are all reasonably similar with the placement of the H700mb warm front through the central portion of the forecast area. The likely axis of the deformation snows denoted with a line is directly on the poleward side of said front and it is here where the most intense snowfall rates are likely to occur during the peak of the blizzard on Monday morning into the mid day hours. The bottom two models, which are the GFS on the left and GEM on the right, are outliers with their placement over southeastern sections of Massachusetts and are disregarded. Here is the Eastern Mass Weather's best approximation of this band during the day on Monday. The very heaviest amounts of snowfall are likely to be within these bands, as well as on the east slopes of the Worcester hills, where a deep layer easterly fetch will induce upslope enhancement. While 850mb flow off of the Atlantic will ensure that the variation in snowfall between bands will not be as extreme as is often the case in systems of this magnitude, amounts are likely to be somewhat lower between these bands due to some extended residence time. Snowfall will finally begin to taper off during the afternoon on Monday. Some mixing with rain occurs over the outer cape and islands at the height of the storm due to the fact that the track of the low is anticipated to come close enough to entrain some milder ocean air on hurricane force wind gusts. Snow will be last to taper under the aforementioned bands, where the steadiest snowfall will tend to "rot", as the bands decay in place throughout Monday evening. Final Call: First Call Issued Friday Feb 20 @ 8pm:

Final Call Blizzard of '26 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/final-call-severe-winter-storm-imminent.html Final Call: First Call Issued Friday Feb 20 @ 8pm:

Well, that was before this blizzard....no one will whine after this.

Last run was better for me....went from 19 to 16".

No more room....only trend we are getting is later load blown, which helps south of us more...

Now that is a Nemo run...

Actually cut back a bit by me...tighter, but mostly noise.

LBLI now...

NAM is closing off later...