40/70 Benchmark

Well, anything is theoretically possible when ENSO isn't overwhelming....because other factors dictate the hemispheric pattern...too early to say just yet.

First order of business is to determine whether or not El Nino will ultimately grow prohibitively strong.

It depends....if it gets over 2.0, it doesn't really matter where the anomalies are focused, it's going to torch. I made that mistake in 2015 and won't again.

Mass in general doesn't care....other areas don't get it.

MULTI-decadal cycle....it's more like 30 years.

Last trace of snow at the end of my driveway melted out today.

I certainly don't think we should be resigned to it.

I think a season like 1991-1992 is more of a threat than 2015-2016.

Absolutely, and we will be until the turn of the decade, but there are ENSO driven deviations from the multidecadal cycle....look at 1957....also near solar max and preceded by consecutive -PDO +ENSO events.

I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.

I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.