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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the CANSIPS did best last winter, granted non of the models accurately incorporate the magnitude of CC attributed ridge expansion. Just saying...not mean to imply it necessarily will again.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another nod towards 1997.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Usually the seasonal guidance will be biased towards stock ENSO, so when a seasonal model shows that output leading into an intense El Nino episode, it should provide reason for pause.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I wouldn't. Did you see my May blog?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added. Interesting.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bob was a yawner for most.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.03" total rainfall.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it's all connected...sure, the RONI only measures the oceans, but I think the warming oceans are somewhat connected to the more pronounced 500MB ridges....I think there is an element of feedback at play. Bottom line is there is more heat, which is being reflected in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it just so happens that the RONI only measures the former...so technically, yes...it certainly goes beyond the RONI.
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