40/70 Benchmark

Spring Preview This Week Followed By Mid-Month Regression Cooler & Stormier Start To Astronomical Spring As the conclusion of the harshest winter in about a decade comes into focus, those beleaguered by the season begin to look forward to spring with great anticipation, and it just so happens that Mother Nature is obliging this week. Indeed, the progression of the MJO through the Maritime Continent is treating New Englanders to a bona fide spring preview this week, as temperatures soar through the 60s today, and even potentially past 70 degrees tomorrow across the forecast area. Note the similarity between the current pattern that is poised to bring near record warmth across the east. And the regime associated with passage of the MJO through phase 6 during early to mid March. One consequence of a mild pattern such as this is that the cold is afforded ample time to pool near the pole, which leaves the mid latitudes vulnerable to future incursions should the pattern permit, and in a season such as this not often will. Astronomical Spring More Akin To Late Winter This Year Mother Nature often refuses to abide by the calendar definition of seasons, which is but a mere artifact of Astrology, and at no other point of the year is this more evident in New England than the Spring. If one is in search for a deviation from that trend, then this is not the year to conduct a fruitful search. Last summer, Eastern Mass weather began making a case for why the coming cold season was likely to display a propensity for episodes of cross polar flow due to the expected configuration of both the polar domain, as well as the extra tropical Pacific. This analysis has proven very prescient in nature. It would stand to reason that "spring" 2026 may have one last bitter pill for the region to swallow and it just so happens that there are indeed signs that that will be the case. Note the progression of the MJO wave out of the MC and into phases 7 and 8. Although the wave is forecast to weaken markedly upon passage into phase 8, currently it is forecast to impress on the tropical forcing pattern, nonetheless. Here is the pattern that this type of forcing regime in mid-latter March, approaching the equinox would entail. This should look familiar. There is also a strong storm signal centered on the 16th, as a PNA judge flexes into existence for perhaps one final time. Obviously the cold will undoubtedly be less severe and more ephemeral in nature than it was during the heart of the boreal winter season, but one last winter storm can not be ruled out, especially across the distant interior between now and the "astronomical" start of spring. A cold rain likely on the coastal plain at this extended juncture; spring in New England, indeed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/03/spring-preview-this-week-by-mid-month.html

Yea, beyond St Paddy's Day requires a much great anomaly to get even a pedestrian snow event on the CP.

Well, it's not a climo-thing for me...it's a "the set up would blow in January"-thing....looks like we are going to have a 50/50 High.

Go draft

And I mean it, too-

I'd rather see a Montreal-mauler.

I could see it ending up more like a messy hugger, though....but I think the threat of another 40"er at the safe houses of Fall River is going by the wayside...

Yea, mid month-threat looks like a SLRV runner right now...tough to bank on the seasonal trend at this juncture because that BZ is lifting northward.

Yea, well the pause in snowmelt is quite real, as fleeting as it will be...

I snuck below freezing, down to 29.1

Eh...looks like I whiffed on March this season, but TBH that's probably a good thing for my DM numbers because I had been too warm.

GFS and EURO suck verbatim....only good outcome is EURO AI.

Yes, definitely...that failure kept it as a "B"....I need one more high-end event next week to go with an "A".

Yea, it's a good winter....not complaining....just stating why it isn't an "A" for me....I value precipitation a bit more than cold, which the stats back up at this latitude....that is why I grade a year like 2004-2005, which wasn't every cold and had a lot of melting, but also a ton of snow, higher than this.