40/70 Benchmark

I do like 2023 as a late season analog (Feb-March), but the RNA shouldn't be as extreme.

Yea. I'm impressed with the AI suite overall.

VDDay coming up..no better time to fully exorcise those Kristine demons.

Relative to WINDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Looks like the main PV lobe is headed to Asia. That is why the airmass grows rather stale on this side of the hemisphere beyond about Feb 10th.

Yea, probably a great pattern for NNE.

I guess I sensed an optimistic tone in your interpretation. Agree concerning volatility, but I think the correction vector in terms of at least the middle third of the month is warmer. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I don't echo Steve's optimism that we are geared up for a conveyor belt of prime threats. I think it's going to be a messy month that will scrap and claw it's way to near climo snowfall in SNE.

I'm not saying it's a warm-sector with all rain...but it's probably a mess for SNE.

Yup.

Yea, this weekend into the onset of early next week concludes the utility of the 2015 analog...that is coming to an end.

My guess for that bigger VD event is that you will want to be up and in....probably not too unlike OP GFS, but maybe more aggressive triple point development.

I agree for the most part, but I think we will get above average for a stretch centered on the time of the SSW/split....kind of like January with the cold start-moderation-colder finish, but the PNA will be reversed...ie January had the first week RNA carry over from December before PNA took over. Here we have the initial carry over +PNA from January until RNA rules the majority of the month. Feb def. won't be as cold as January relative to climo....the N Pacific will also probably break more hostile for at least an interval mid month, along with NAO.

This is what I had for February in my Outlook last fall....I think there is still some colder risk to this forecast, but probably not as much as looked last week. Def. looks like I could be wrong on the +NAO, but I could still see a flip + later this month, despite what guidance does....usually there is a relaxation of the pattern when a PV split actually takes place before any impacts are experiences down the line. February 2026 Outlook February Analogs: 2025, 2022, 2018, 2014,2008, 2002, 2001, 1971 The Alaskan ridge will rule this month at least to start, along with -PNA and +NAO. Some -NAO blocking could develop late if stratospheric warming gets underway early enough, but it likely holds off. Alaskan Ridge Regime Courtesy Lee et al (2019) The polar vortex should begin the month fairly strong, but will be weakening rapidly, as a SSW is likely by mid-month. The January-February 2001 transition from reflection event to SSW may be a reasonable expectation, in terms of progression, as RNA pattern resumes and refocuses the cold west prior to any SSW. The interior will continue to be favored for snowfall as the storm track remains either inland or hugs the coast. While not prohibitively warm, this will largely canonical La Niña month with average to below average snowfall on the coastal plane, and average to above average snowfall across the interior. Should the SSW develop in the earlier portion of the 1/17 to 2/17 window, the the second half of the month may change that due to the development of high latitude blocking, however, it is more likely not to occur until mid-month, as previously alluded to. The month will finish between +1F and +3F over New England and +2F to +4F over the mid Atlantic.

Def. looks like I could be wrong on the +NAO, but I could still see a flip + later this month, despite what guidance does....usually there is a relaxation of the pattern when a PV split actually takes place before any impacts are experiences down the line.