40/70 Benchmark

Hopefully it's an inverted tough.

I wonder if CoastalWx agrees? I thought it was -12 to -18?

Yea, need more phasing....as is, it's a moderate impact...maybe more if you considier the cold.

Wish he had the balls to make an account and post.

The events like that are definitely prone to the screw jobs....just a weak low with ton of overrunning...had a bad screw job, but yea...everyone was around 1', at least.

I have often wondered how to get around those mesoscale porks... I know one way is an H85 firehose, which we won't have...but I think the other way is to get intense H7 deformation bodily over the area.....Jan 2015 pulled it off. Jan 2005 kind of did.

All good. Hopefully trends keep coming.

Yea, I don't think anyone should sweat that. If we can get that N stream injection to gain some legs through tomorrow it would be very reassuring for a large scale heavy event....eventual meso struggles be damned.

Tough shit. Sey-Mour 40/70andlikeit

Nothing like that...I remember I was like WTF when I heard that.

They have an ignore feature, have at it.

IF it redevelops, sure.....I said that. But we still aren't sure it's going in that direction. My sentiment about a graze was if it stays primarily overrunning with a weak surface reflection. Regardless of whether or not you understand that mesoscale aspect or not, it makes sense with that airmass in place. It doesn't take a particularly skilled pro met to see that even at this range if he/she has any knowledge of local climo whatsoever.

Figured.

These first two are not mutually exclusive....there is mesoscale risk with arctic air pinning the CF like that. Issue for a few days from now, but this is a setup conducive to that.

You clearly do not understand e MA climo and while the model had that snowfall distribution.