40/70 Benchmark

Yea, hot, steamaing pile of excrement lol

06z GFS appears as though it's struggling with the convection, as it has like 8 different lows.

I'd love to see a slightly shallower trough with the N energy phasing in more aggressively.

Obviously track is one issue, but I would also like to see this close off later.

Like I said last week, the dip may have just been rushed...we are seeing some trending towards that.

Yea, I mentioned folks have up on that reversal too quickly...maybe it won't technically get there, but it will be close.

Yes, the "fast flow" explanation is a bit too reductive IMHO.

Yes, exactly.

Irony being @MJO812has been citing the decaying block as the reason we are going to get a big storm all week

I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.

So why does the fast flow allow phasing in that area relative to other spots?? I have my response, but interest in hearing your's....

The band has also gotten less impressive. Everything has trended towards the EURO AI, which more like a coating to 2" yesterday.

Probably, but could be a decent-sized one.

Actually really good consensus now on the near miss. I expect this to end up close to reality, c0cktease runs notwithstanding.

Not sure I follow, and not sure I want to....