40/70 Benchmark

I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.

Mid January I think that will change...

Right...near the solar min....seasons that average negative NAO in the mean have been declining in frequency, but the time to get them is ascending solar near solar min.

Not you....the sentiment behind the post.

No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.

I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.

Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.

Either Jan 2024 or 2022

What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.

I don't understand why energy congealing near the east coast ends up being delayed until the Maritimes as a result of the fast flow, but a developing eastern lakes or NYS bomb doesn't end up near the east coast...is there a gap in the flow or something?

I was just hoping for at least some virtual excitement by this point, and all I am left with is a clipper that will produced a mini CJ as the dong drops on my grape on NYE.

Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....

Okay, sure...yes. I agree....slow start doesn't prohibit a good stretch, which I still expect, regardless. I am just referring to the ultimate seasonal total.

I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.