40/70 Benchmark

More Active Week Ahead Return of Pacific Trough Regime Implies Mixed Events Mid January Redux Pattern Reprieve The Eastern Mass Weather winter outlook from early last November posited that the milder Pacific trough regime would become prevalent during times of pattern relaxation. The first interval of this pattern presented as forecast, during the middle third of the month of January Another pattern relaxation of this ilk is also slated to return this week, during the middle portion of February. However, the trade-off for the milder temperatures will be a more active weather pattern in terms of bouts of precipitation. Milder & More Active Pattern Ensues For Latter Half Of February The implication for southern New England is likely to be a serious of attenuating waves that will be accompanied by light-to-moderate mixed precipitation throughout the region. The first such system is likely overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. The primary threat for a light snowfall is north of the Massachusetts turnpike. Then a follow up system Friday night into Saturday, which may be more focused on Connecticut. The largest storm potential exists in association with a potential coastal development on Monday, February 23, however, the early indication is that this system is likely to pass predominately out to sea and pose a larger threat to the Canadien Maritimes. More updates throughout the week as needed, including the potential Tuesday issuance of a forecast for the Wednesday system.

Looks like a milder, albeit more active pattern is on tap for the coming weak. Two weaker systems with mixed precipitation likely overnight Wednesday and Friday. The first focused north of the Mass pike for a light snowfall, and the second maybe a bit further south, but quite a ways out. Initial hedge is mainly out-to-sea for a larger storm potential in about a week. Will have a closer look at Wednesday on Tuesday if necessary. This will not be a big deal. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/more-active-week-ahead.html

That may not be as big of an issue in February.

Yea, I wasn't trying to assuage any angst by making that comparison Just pointing it out. I made the mistake of including seasons in the January composite, like 2001-2002, because of that expected PT regime mid month.....but as it turned out, the cold dwarfed it so much it was a mistake. That is why I busted too warm. I feel like diagnosing the pattern is easier than the making the temp composite maps.

It's not good any time of the year....that wasn't my point. Just saying it's similar to that thaw period.

I don't like that middle system...those sheared systems are usually a lost cause here. It will probably work for CT.

Yea, it probably won't work out like that, but that is the pathway to be falling short of climo for an 8th consecutive season.

OP EURO is a disaster verbatim....1st SWFE snow is just N of me in S NH, the follow up is sheared sw of me, and then the coastal is OTS.

I'm just teasing John.....I know it's true. I just think it's a bit more nuanced than some imply.

Same pattern we had in mid January.

And isn't debatable...there's research, so any voices of dissent must be born of an aptitude deficiency.

I'll burn a few extra tons of fossil fuels.

Fish are immune to the enhanced CC gradient.

Trends from that mid January PT regime are probably most pertinent here.

Kind of like January looked -PNA? Looks can be deceiving.