40/70 Benchmark

Pretty close...I'm at 39.5".

Makes sense, as there is usually a break right when the SSW takes place,.

It will because it won't meet the 5 consecutive months at or blow -0.5 criteria, but I considered it a La Niña, anyway....per MEI and RONI.

That looks like the Jan 2022 band that croacked I 95...I suffered the same fate as you lol

It's not an official La Nina, no.

Agree!!! Candidate for post of the year!!!

Probably centered on when the actual split is taking place.

Take a look at set ups with decidedly +EPO/+WPO/-NAO...promise it won't be this cold, and often downright mild...we've seen some examples over the past several years.

No it hasn't, the North Pacific has. -NAO can prevent a torch and help to lock cold in when it matters, but it's not the source of this arctic flow.

No, it impacted March, but the extreme RNA still worked mid atlantic and SNE.

Why is that?

Those were my two top SSW analogs, and very good seasonal analogs in general. Hence the KU window in early March,

Just being a dick. Long range forecasting is hard...only way to get any better is falling in on your face enough (not suggesting you did). I think I have another 22-32" to go IMBY this season.

Say buckle up enough, the seatbelt will eventually click.

Snowing at the rate of 3"/week....Feb 2015 and Jan 2011. I actually see the value of the Feb 2015 analog, but my gag-reflex kicks in when people compare the snowfall.