-
Posts
77,966 -
Joined
-
Last visited
About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
-
Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
-
Gender
Male
-
Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
-
Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
Recent Profile Visitors
103,778 profile views
-
I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year.
-
I'll bet I end up right near the zone of demarcation...
-
It's quite challenging to entirely wipe the slate clean and not carry past forecasting failures into the next season, as this is something that I have grappled with after busting far too cold/snowy a couple of times during that least +WPO regime. That was definitely on my mind and played a role in the reluctance to fully commit in terms of aligning my temp composites to reflect the pattern that I was so confident would ensue.
-
I was wrong on that....the stratosphere never really clicked like I thought it would. The attempt the second week of February ended up being a fake-out, which is where we parted ways with 2018....then we ended up succeeding in a reversal in early March, but it wasn't a true SSW and was kind of late, anyway by that point. Disappointing finish to be sure, but I am happy overall with my outlook this year. I do need to fine tune how I develop my temp composites, though bc I wasn't cold enough...I'm still learning how to properly assimilate the role that CC plays in this. I think what I missed is that if the pattern is a dead-ringer for cold, which it was this year, then go nuts...don't water down the composites to account for CC in a generic sense because that is far too reductive a practice that will lead any forecaster astray. It can still get damn-cold, but it's just that the dice are now loaded against that particular outcome in any given region. The trick is to be a skilled and confident enough seasonal forecaster to identify those 1 or 2/10 seasons and go all-in. You can't be non-committal and meek, or else accuracy will suffer. The truth is that I am remiss because I diagnosed this seasonal pattern about as accurately was any accomplished seasonal forecaster ever will, but I never fully committed to it, which was reflected in my temp composites.
-
6" here...I've seen worse in terms of snowfall, but been very mild.
-
I can't believe how badly March sucked, but then again, it makes sense in one respect given seasonal snowfall was already about where I had envisioned.
-
Yea, it's the type of pattern we could work with a month ago, but now? Zone of proximal butt-plunge, as the spring zealots will still find it obnoxious to be outside, and the weenies will be at a loss for a reason to post the snow emoji. Perfect-
-
Yup.
-
I'm pretty much wiped. You can rest easy.
-
I'm fully immersed in fantasy baseball, so it's going to have to take a strong consensus for a major event to pull me back in, and a day 7 OP EURO won't do it.
-
Yea, probably the latitude at which that foot will verify.
-
You don't say?
-
Oh, man.....so sorry to hear. Dude was definitely enthusiastic about weather...he'd go with a 40"-burger somewhere in just about every big nor' easter. RIP.
