40/70 Benchmark

That about sums it up-

@NoCORH4LI expect a big stratosphere disruption in early to mid February. Take a look at March 2023, 2018 and 2001...

Gladly take it....this pattern has made me nauseous...cold and windy and a steady dose of 1/4" clippers. Wipe that shit out.

@qg_omega

Yea, we'll see......I'm talking like a KU type...not a 6-12" coastal. Not complaining, BTW...just saying-

I'm sure La Nina's influence has definitely peak and is starting to wane...so maybe a bit less resistance to more favorable outcomes, but not like it's the primary driver....+TNH is not uncommon in La Niña seasons.

Yea, I get what he's saying...those changes aren't really impacting the pattern this winter IMO.

We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.

It's going to be lose...that isn't a 2022-2023 Baja trough.

That is the type of pattern where you get a slew of moderate SWFEs and redevelopers...not a big dog set up with that gradient.

Next spring is when El Nino starts to drive the bus.

I don't think so...RONI and MEI are still safely negative....GLAAM only approaches neutral next month. It's more the +TNH that will save February...a la 2014.

March 1984 and January 1987 were no slouches...December 1981 for a lot of e MA...of course April 1982, Wolfie's fav ...

I agree...I do think the +TNH can carry over, though...maybe some misattribution going on if we get the colder Feb.

I actually explicitly said this was to be expected in my seasonal outlook when noting this tendency the past several years.