Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,938

  • Joined

  • Last visited

6 Followers

About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

Recent Profile Visitors

124,525 profile views
  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not forecasting above normal snowfall or below average temps for the season...just to be clear.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wonder if anbody stopped and wondered what will happen if they issue a stop-payment on their subscription?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have talked about this and it's the recent why I am employing the "reversal" terminology moving forward, rather than SSW to avoid these scientific inconsistencies.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC has built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like bviking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I assume this is a typo.....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my track record for the 15 cities that I do seasonal snowfall forecasts for....mid Atlantic killed me in a couple of seasons....13th will be next week.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The system that dropped a 40_spot on PVD was just outside....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris only does calls out to like 3 weeks, which he is very skilled at...but he does tend to have CC autism, just as we do with respect to snow. It is a "spectrum", you know.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got like 10"...I went to sleep very early on because I knew it wasn't my storm...just like in the Jan 2022 event. The lead-up is exhausting, so if I don't think it will produce to a level commensurate to hope/expectations, then I check out.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is infallible...I'm disregarding. Who knows, maybe he caught a buzz and was feeling gitty....dude is human-
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it lingered just long enough at 70mb to help trigger this...who knows....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why celebrate your kid's 1st grade graduation, or take pride in dropping 30lbs....the rate of warming in the arctic is more impressive. I mean, if someone is in fact using a single storm or arctic outbreak as evidence against CC, then by all means....start the firing squad, but simply enjoying it for what it is? The fact that CC is in fact real warrants that we savor it even more TBH.
×
×
  • Create New...