40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I agree with him on late month...just wish we hadn't wasted so much season beforehand.

That's fine, I was just jumping in....

I don't think the rest of winter is doomed or anything....all I meant is it's hard to essentially punt the first half in a cool ENSO year and end up hitting normal totals or above. I will also say that this seasons does have the profile to buck that trend.

There was plenty of whining...yes, I do partake at times, but I also contribute a great deal...not like I just spew garbage endlessly.

I'm done...I vent every now and then, but I'm not carrying on. Just a quick burst this AM.

So you need more evidence to conclude that February and March usually suck in a La Nina??

Nailed my spot...8"

I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.

Mid January I think that will change...

Right...near the solar min....seasons that average negative NAO in the mean have been declining in frequency, but the time to get them is ascending solar near solar min.

Not you....the sentiment behind the post.

No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.

I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.

Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.

Either Jan 2024 or 2022