40/70 Benchmark

It was just a hypothetical comment.

God, I hope that grouping fails spectacularly moving forward....I'd just assume drive out to the desert's of Albuquerque and shot-gun a cactus than experience anything akin to the past four El Niño events during this coming season.

Of course Miller A is more prolific for the majority of the east coast, Miller B is dependent on N stream influx, so they are northeast centric....which is why we are more likely to get a favorable track and timing of evolution. Less time for it to go wrong....kind of like how storm chasers on the gulf coast would father a home-brew under pristine conditions than a CV long-tracker.

I don't give a rat's ass about the east coast as a whole, I care about MBY.

PDO isn't close, though.

Right...you want the max rate of mid level keeping to coincide with their passage just beneath your latitude....tougher to pull off with with respect to track, and timing of the evolution of the cyclone's life cycle in Miller A.

If you want a great outcome, the mid level lows are below us in Miller, B, too.

IMO, "hybrid" is Miller B. SWFE on roids has to be Miller A designation......the influx of moisture is from the south without any real northern energy. PD II was kind of like that, though it had a bit more of a surface reflection.

Now look at that list and tell the ones that would most like to relive and I bet they are Miller B.

Conisder this list: According to National Weather Service data compiled by the Boston Globe and Boston.com, here are the top ten largest recorded snowstorms in Boston history: February 17–18, 2003 – 27.6 inches: MILLER A (But I have always been VERY skeptical of that total) February 6–7, 1978 (Blizzard of '78) – 27.1 inches: MILLER B February 24–26, 1969 – 26.3 inches: MILLER B January 22–24, 2005 – 25.4 inches: MILLER B February 8–9, 2013 – 25.4 inches: MILLER B March 31–April 1, 1997 (April Fool's Day storm) – 25.3 inches: MILLER B January 26–28, 2015 – 24.9 inches: MILLER B January 25–26, 2026 (Winter Storm Fern) – 23.2 inches: MILLER A January 20–22, 1978 – 23.1 inches: MILLER A February 8–11, 1994 – 21.7 inches [1, 2, 3, 4] (OES ENHANCED) I count 3 of the top ten that are clear Miller A events.

Miller A Million ways to pork me

Given our longitude, I'd much rather take my chances with "later" development...not close. The ceiling us also lower on Miller A because they are usually more progressive.

Another possibility I am toying with is having more of a supply of cold readily available to the CONUS relative to the east-based intense Nino composite AND having the STJ displaced N & W relative to said composite...which could be great for us, especially across the interior.

I'm a bit torn on how the disconnect between the PDO and ENSO may go.....I see some indicate that it could force a colder outcome in the east, but that definitely didn't work out in 2023. I see how it could weaken the GOA low, thus reducing the proclivity for +EPO/strong Pac jet, but I also see that adding an element of destructive interference via elevated se heights....I tend to place greater emphasis on the latter, but perhaps we are especially prone to severe bouts of winter when said SE heights relative to expectation relax.

I was actually going to add a mid atl reference, too. haha The majority down there are great posters, but there are a select few that just make you want to make use of the idle snowblower and lie yourself down on the drive way.