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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....about 150W....that is what was in the MC previously. I have a question for you guys..name me all of the El Niño events with a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan like we have now....then, once you do that, do me a solid and eliminate the ones with ample MC contribution and let me know the ultimate list. I think the folks whacking it to subsurface erotica need to remember that absolutely nothing operates in a vacuum...not even the most intense El Niño in history.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We don't know how it's going to work out....maybe it won't end up mattering and the eastern convection will dominate for a 1997 replica, but I think ignoring alternative outcomes is silly. You can't just pretend the dual forcing isn't there on modeling.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally no one said that......arguing for competing forces to emerge mid season and claiming something is "more important" are two different statements. It's not a matter of something else "trumping" the El Niño, but rather how other factors interact with it and the rest of the hemispheric landscape.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's because the El Niño forcing is the only game in town right now .....as the season goes along, it's going to get some competition from the west that 1998 didn't have once some of these gradients steepen. I never debated intervals of record warmth...but it's not going to be wall-to-wall. The first half will be very mild and that will not be negated...no way.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ultimately deemed 1997 worthy of inclusion in the final QBO composite, but agree it's not one of the stronger ones.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    AGREE.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The season may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only real weak spot is solar.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Total agreement.
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