40/70 Benchmark

Yea, Scott...Fri night is a SWFE...exactly what that is.

Elaborate?

That would have a crazy deform-band...someone would be having a snow-thundergasm.

Funny how there is just a grave yard of Pacific disturbances amassing underneath that little block.

Yea, that's blatant plagiarism of the KU cookbook.

This is why 2018 and 2023 are both valid analogs, despite each invoking drastically different reactions from CoastalWx!!

Remember all year I was saying I think it will be like March 2023 with a little more help...case in point. While the pattern is redolent of that particular latter season stanza, the Pacific troughing is not quite as deleterious to winter prospects in this case because it's not as extreme and is accompanied by a favorable PV positioning.

Undoubtedly related.

That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.

EURO is the least impressive in general with the two follow up potentials.

I'm not trying to imply that it will necessarily rival that stretch on a per inch basis, but I think it does help to validate the use of that season as an upper tier analog. That was a very anomalous period.

You are a bit better off being further west because it's attenuating as it comes eastward. 06z EURO ticked back N a bit, at least.

First event is at risk of sliding just south of me.

Not sure how that invalidates the analog.....potential light-moderate-major trifecta is close enough for me.

Jesus, 3 systems? I'm overwhelmed with blog overload. I haven't experienced this since...oh, IDK....March 2018??