40/70 Benchmark

Strobe lighting on the privates?

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.

I don't "use it to forecast". It's just something I have noticed about the strongest of events. I love how 1983 and 2016 are qualified as BS when in fact they were officially designated as La Niña....that is BS. 1966-1967 sure as hell seems cool-neutral to me........1957 and 1991, sure....I'll grant that. Must be a sample size issue I don't think I used any offensive language in my response to Chuck.....if he feels as though I did, by all means, let me know. At least to me, employing sarcasm is different than using incendiary terms like "idiot". And yes, as a father of four young children and a licensed independent social worker/therapist, I would be immensely offended if I were called a pedophile, despite the fact I have never harmed any child. Frankly. I find your analogy utterly disgraceful, but it doesn't surprise me coming from you.

I'm not offended. I'm proud of my work over the last decade plus...learned a ton. I'm just tired of your loathsome, vile persona acting as though you're superior to everyone and always spewing venom. When in the hell did I run to the mods? I know as a byproduct of your incredibly meager existence you repeatedly made baseless claims of me plagiarizing your work....I called that out, but I don't recall ever getting mods involved. That accusation is every bit as accurate is your idiotic claim about the "smiley" snowfall pattern leading to another shitty east coast winter. Of course, you never acknowledged that. Okay, cool...you found a couple of exceptions ....of course, within this context the sample size is no longer an issue, and those examples can be used to completely debunk my assertion because it's convenient. "The sample size" crap is so fraudulent when you aren't consistent with it. Like I said, put your money where your keyboard is and take the bet, if I'm such an idiot.

I out the central air on a bit before bit and after I woke up this AM...but no need now.

Yep...62.2 underneath the baseball.

71.6

Great...."now batting for East Coast Winter Enthusiasts....Dave....Kingman".

That would be brutal for eastern winter enthusiasts...would mean warmer and less snowfall overall, but perhaps more large events.

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic".

What is idiotic is your inability to wrap your mind around the fact that it works for the strongest of events. Weaker events are much more variable and cool ENSO doesn't get as strong; I have already stated that. Assuming we peak over 2.0 during the coming El Nino, I will bet you an idiotic $100 right now that 2027-2028 is yet another cool ENSO. Should be something akin to taking the proverbial candy from a baby for you, right?? I get what you are saying about the sample size being inadequate in the grand scope of time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the relationship doesn't exist. You can pull sample size on any relationship or correlation with respect to the weather because all of our sample sizes are inadequate. We have been keeping records for such a small fraction of time.

Well, we won't have the frequency of strong cool ENSO events.....no Uber-strong events. It's the strongest events that are most likely to trigger the opposite phase.

I agree....I could totally see a weak-neutralish +PDO. Just saying I don't think we are going to do 2023/1972 again.