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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 had -EPO and a-WPO....uncharacteristically favorable N Pac. that year...only on in that subset, which is actually an outstanding analog....we just need to keep closing that RONI/ONI delta. 1972-1973 was the worst N Pac.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see that delta continue to slowly shrink. 1982 actually ended up with a RONI that was higher than the ONI, which is likely why it's the only intense El Niño to average slightly -WPO. I don't expect us to get that far this year, as the ONI will remain somewhat higher, but I do think that the absolute RONI value will get higher than that Dec 1982 record of 2.4. I could see that RONI/ONI delta getting down to like .2 by winter.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that the RON/ONI delta seems to be closing a hair (.5 to .4)...I mentioned back in my blog earlier this summer that this will be key to salvaging a decent second half...I hedged towards a 2015-like middle ground (think 1997 canonical /2023 MC opposite ends of spectrum), and still like that....at least.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get what you were saying...no way will December be similar. I am sure to explain how I derive my seasonal composite members before introducing the map, in addition to also giving a composite list for each individual month, so I agree that a measure of preemptive context is important.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It implies a negative AO winter in the mean for the coming season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2010 is a perfectly viable analog for the second half....there seems to be this misconception that you can't include an analog in the composite unless you feel like the coming season will be a replica of it. Good luck operating like that because it's a pretty exclusive methodology.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    50mb to 1948, too. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.50mb.data
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have QBO data to 1948 at the page I use.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably best for his mental health...I applaud the resolve to actually do it.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still struggle with that, but have gotten better...it's just tough when you have a history of struggling to be receptive to alternative viewpoints and spend so much time and effort articulating your own thoughts....all of the investment, which is ostensibly a positive in that it's a vehicle for growth, tends to leave me more susceptible to undervaluing dissenting viewpoints. It's a balance between the understanding the that the incorporation of others' thoughts is ideal, and the instinct to be protective over an ideology that you have spent in an inordinately excessive amount of time and effort formulating. That is the essence of DBT in a nutshell...utilizing the ability to balance the extremes in life to identify and correct maladaptive thought and behavioral patterns to improve intrapersonal relationships. It's apparent on social media that many folks within weather circles could use a DBT course.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same. Last time I had it out with him a few weeks ago there was an OT thread started and I suggested dialectical behavioral therapy to him...I was serious, too....I really think he'd benefit from it, as would his interpersonal relationships. I don't intend it as some big insult, either....I've participated in it as a clinical and a patient and it's something the majority of us could benefit from.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like he just peaced-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    What's up with @snowman19? He get banned?
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