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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
Recent Profile Visitors
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Obviously we aren't near peak in early July...goes without saying. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That sounds fair....may actually help December to avoid being quite as exotically warm given somewhat less MC competition. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not where I am...it was an utter abomination....but I realize we could have easily had much more snow. The warmth is what it is. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
March hasn't seen the north Pacific flip that boreal winter has over the past couple of years...it keeps reverting to +WPO. Like I said before, this isn't ALL a product of CC, but I'm sure it helps. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I didn't have the data in front of me...I just meant it should be pretty warm. Maybe +6 instead of +13, sure. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Eventually it's going to happen...sure, the return rate maybe decreasing, but it will happen. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
(Saunters purposefully into oncoming traffic) Do we have an emoji for that? -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, it will be better, but the question is how much better...as Chris says. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I expect something similar temp wise, but snowfall in the higher terrain of northern New England is still a bit of a wild card. Not a pretty look overall for December, though. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
December 1995, 2009 and 2013 were pretty cold, but by and large, you are correct. December 2005, 2007 and 2008 were normalish... -
If this sticks, which I feel like it may, we probably pull of a serviceable snowfall season next year....albeit mild.
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I do think we have changed to a better north Pacific pattern.....seem to have flipped from predominately +WPO for many years to more negative the past couple.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, makes sense. I think some of that is just natural variation, but it is undoubtedly augmented by CC eroding the the bookends of the cold season. I'm sure it's not happening as fast as could be inferred by the contrast between those two decades, though...my money is on a better decade for the month of March during the 2030's relative to the 2020s. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, I understand that...most winter seasonal considerations don't. I only do because it's a large part of the snowfall season around here...well, historically, anyway...not so much this decade. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1982 is actually the only super El Niño to average barely -WPO DJFM (-.17)....probably largely why it's the only one in which my area pulled off normal snowfall. December was very strongly +, then January was about neutral before the bottom dropped out. Good Analog IMO. 1982 1.42 1983 -0.05 -0.89 -1.14
