40/70 Benchmark

Okay, yes...fair post. To me, it makes sense that the strongest of ENSO events, which are El Niño, reverse....but I can't say definitively that that trend will not cease with more data. We will just have to see. I wasn't trying to be dismissive, so sorry if it came across that way.

Thank you. January 7th, 2024 was an incredible event for me.

You know we're screwed when Chris starts saying "it will be interesting to see".....thereafter, you can insert a means for the demise of the impending winter. Are you able to access the latest ERA 5 data...ie for the entire month of March? I am encountering the same issue as with NCAR...

I don't expect it to be as warm as 2023-2024 in the northeast.

It's undoubtedly the best indicator...follow the $.

Do you have the link for the site that was used to generate that map?

Chris, I am unable to use the ERA 5 data set to retrieve the latest data, either...am I missing something?

What an absolute disaster that they have ended the NCAR reanalysis.

Eh....maybe more like replacement level...say Darren Bragg https://www.fangraphs.com/players/darren-bragg/83/stats/batting

Yea, I can't even begin to say at this point. Contrary to what some are implying.....I haven't "forecast" anything yet. I have said numerous times that I don't even begin to delve in until after the spring barrier. While I have opined on several occasions throughout the thread that I doubt that a super El Nino will materialize, that is simply an early guess based on superficial observations. If June comes around and the data strongly suggests that we are going over 2.0, then my initial ENSO blogs will reflect that. I don't know why on earth anyone would struggle to distinguish casual discourse on an internet forum from an actual forecast. If it can be found and linked on my blog, then it's a forecast...if you are quoting a guess from an internet thread in March or April, then that isn't a forecast. That said, at the end of the day, the only forecast that is graded is what I post in the seasonal write up released in early November....data changes throughout the year, which is not a novel concept because seasonal forecasting is immensely complex, fluid and multifaceted. I often respond to dissenting viewpoints with sarcasm...yes, as I opt to inject humor into any semblance of conflict in an effort to mitigate tension. This is different from name calling in my mind. However, if it turns out that I am wrong, as was the case concerning the El Nino of 2023-2024, I think that both yourself, as well as @bluewavewould attest to the fact that I wholeheartedly capitulated and offered congratulations. I then authored a long blog post in an effort to illustrate where I exactly I went stray as part of a concerted effort to avail of the opportunity to learn from my mistake. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html Everyone makes errors, but an "idiot" refuses to own them, and then ultimately acquiesce to an alternative view point in order to gain a greater breadth of perspective. I think I have aptly demonstrated a willingness to do so by way of my online contributions to this forum.

Not sure which I enjoy more, the liberation from mother nature's infernal oven courtesy of the Atlantic's salty life raft, or @Typhoon Tipcolorful rectal analogies....it's close.

I could see an evolution like 2023-2024, but hopefully we would have a more conducive western Pacific this go around to the extent that we would at least have a fighting chance to score a decent period or two.

Strobe lighting on the privates?

Man, thank god for backdoor fronts...almost makes the 33-and-rain days worth it.