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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably @Typhoon Tiplol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That JMA output is textbook Modoki composite. Again, I think that is overdone in the seasonal mean, but it is what it is.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's coming lol I'm telling you, he's going to shred this optimism like a ninja with absolute surgical precision.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Larry is feeln' it- Dude needs a Bluewave intervention, and pronto He'll slap you across the face with a series of JMA VP images.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I mean by exaggerated is with respect to the DJF mean pattern...it's probably going to be too cold in December, and while that DJF mean map may very well be representative of one month (February), it's highly likely to be overly reflected in the DJF mean on the model.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are def. due for a stretch like that.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    People were dicks because of the venom that he often spewed in his responses. The data that he posted was not the issue; I appreciated that. I had nothing to do with his latest intrapersonal conflict, but I have had my share with him, as well. Maybe he just needed a break...I think we all have at one time or another.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 had -EPO and a-WPO....uncharacteristically favorable N Pac. that year...only on in that subset, which is actually an outstanding analog....we just need to keep closing that RONI/ONI delta. 1972-1973 was the worst N Pac.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see that delta continue to slowly shrink. 1982 actually ended up with a RONI that was higher than the ONI, which is likely why it's the only intense El Niño to average slightly -WPO. I don't expect us to get that far this year, as the ONI will remain somewhat higher, but I do think that the absolute RONI value will get higher than that Dec 1982 record of 2.4. I could see that RONI/ONI delta getting down to like .2 by winter.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that the RON/ONI delta seems to be closing a hair (.5 to .4)...I mentioned back in my blog earlier this summer that this will be key to salvaging a decent second half...I hedged towards a 2015-like middle ground (think 1997 canonical /2023 MC opposite ends of spectrum), and still like that....at least.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get what you were saying...no way will December be similar. I am sure to explain how I derive my seasonal composite members before introducing the map, in addition to also giving a composite list for each individual month, so I agree that a measure of preemptive context is important.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It implies a negative AO winter in the mean for the coming season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2010 is a perfectly viable analog for the second half....there seems to be this misconception that you can't include an analog in the composite unless you feel like the coming season will be a replica of it. Good luck operating like that because it's a pretty exclusive methodology.
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