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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957-1958 also had quite a bit of -NAO.....but Chris is correct to question how effective it would be today because even if the west warm pool relents, we still need to account for the exaggerated ridge and attenuated trough responses in our modern climate.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never any guarantees with an El Niño that powerful, but we can all agree that we'll need some negative NAO to have an appreciable shot.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would welcome this, regardless of how we fare this coming winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's more of a traditional, canonical-intense El Niño response, more in line with 1997. NAO will be crucial to salvaging a winter. Probably cooler than 2023 in the NE in the absence of that competing MC element.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we are going to be playing with fire a lot between periods of Modoki forcing and MC forcing....probably a good deal of variability after a consistently mild early season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way in hell this is going to be a cold winter in the mean for the NE...even 1957 and 1965 were near normal.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I nailed it in 2016, though granted I was too cold and snowy. I have no issue with a big snow risk, but the cold that Europe site was selling is BS....maybe an arctic outbreak like Feb 2016, but not in the seasonal mean.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grain of salt....this guy is kind of a weenie IMHO. https://www.severe-weather.eu/
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been researching this for my upcoming blog....2015 had it somewhat, but it was much more pronounced in 2023.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing close-minded about my sentiment. I'll peer out the window every now and again if it happens to look ominous, but that is about the extent of my commitment.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems a higher percentage play at your latitude from what I have gathered.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Convection just doesn't do much for me because the odds of anything noteworthy at any given location is just so low........I mean, what are the odds one of those rogue cells sets up over MBY....and furthermore, what are the odds said rogue cell offers anything more anomalous than some heavier rain and gusty winds. While the jackpot is inherently elusive, at least during major winter storms the noteworthy significant blanket of snowfall is pretty uniform. That is a worthwhile endeavor relative to the ill-fated summer rendition of pin the convective tail on the weenie.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm the same, completely, except for hurricanes.
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