40/70 Benchmark

46.4

I would def. prefer moderate where you are in the mid atl, but up here, I'd prefer weak.

RONI, since ONI is obsolete. I use this for PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

I forecasted 2015 to pull that off, Chuck, and it was a failure aside from getting the blizzard right....but I hope we do it one day. I know we've come close.

We've been through that....higher end events are going to leak east. You keep imagining this uber-strong, western biased unicorn...have at it. Yes, strong events are favorable for rouge blizzards, agreed. I called the 2016 event down to the week on a seasonal level. I am talking about temps and NE overall snowfall...only one that was decent for NE snowfall was 1982, which had somewhat of a -WPO.

I do not expect it be like 2023-2024.

I could see it perhaps hanging near neutral like 2004 or 2009....23-24 remained strongly negative.

It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.

Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

I called BS on that early on.

Well, they are correlated....and I feel it will flip with a strong El Nino on the heels of two consecutive -PDO El Nino events.

Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57....