40/70 Benchmark

Here is the money-week...

I'd hit it.

Eh...really skirting 8..was centered 6-7...but MJO wasn't much of a factor IMO.

Don't want the brutal cold and CF pinned to ACK...give me marginal with frigid SSTs.

I'm going to take a big interest in that pretty quickly if it keeps that up and other guidance follows suit...has my attention. I love, love , LOVE the fact that we poised to head into a strong east QBO/cool ENSO finish with potential strat implications and SSTs about as cold as can be.

I think we are going to get a similar pattern...maybe dates don't coincide precisely and we don't get 50" of snow, blah, blah....but elite analog IMHO.

Kind of like what the GFS is going VD Day.

It was COD.

This what I said earlier...if anything it was weak MC forcing, which had no impact.

Pattern def did NOT match phase 6-7, which makes sense because it was so weak...blocking from the Feb SSW ran the show.

Phase 6-7 Look like east-based to perhaps hybrid regime. From east to west...

I think we get at least a couple in the 40s.

Pretty good consistency with that VD Day Miller B on the GFS.

Tough to say, but not necessarily...no more than MC....but would need to see a hovmoller to know for sure.

A lot gets lost in semantics...technically, that mid January period was a torch because night time mins were very high, even though we didn't get any 55 degree-torch days. I get where both sides are coming from. I don't think that mid February break will stick, like the mid January break...but it won't get as cold as late January early February again, not that we need it to.