The real problem is the propensity to lock on to whatever model has the snowiest solutions. We’ve seen it like 10 times this year. I love how each failed storm, we get a nice write up about why shitty model x,y,z is best to handle this and the other models Ill trend towards it. And as usual, it never happens.
the euro had almost no support and completely gagged the solution away in one cycle. It shouldn’t be surprising to people that the only model showing a certain outcome was very likely wrong.
We are turning a seasonal corner whether people want to admit that or not.