mitchnick

Speaking of ensembles, the 12z Canadians were in line with other ensembles too despite the operational.

Didn't see it posted, pardon me if it was. The 12z Ukie ensembles. Back to looking a lot like 0z with DCA/BWI being the bullseye.

18z GGEM looks like it's getting all wound up at lonk below, but comparing it to the Rgem at 84hrs, Rgem with noticeably better confluence fwiw. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

Icon children (ensembles) say "forget my old man, my real father is the Gfs."

Double digit snows Harrisburg north

Icon sorta sux. Lost the confluence too fast.

With virtual an option, probably longer than they need to.

At 60hrs, heights on 18z Icon are also lower than 12z by around same margin as Nam fwiw

Virga vs fallen

At 84hrs on Nam, 534 Height line is thru Fredericksburg while Euro same time had it cutting thru DCA. We'll take all we can get.

As was the snow/ice line.

Still at 69hrs

Better confluence than 12z Nam run will help. Still lower heights at 60hrs vs 12z Nam.

Heights still a little lower than 12z Nam at 57hrs

Heights are lower a bit on the east coast.