mitchnick
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We don't "luck" into any snowstorm let alone the #1 snowstorm for BWI. It was a strong Niño. 82/83 would have been BN too, but for the Megalopolis storm. Nobody knows for certain what's going to happen, including the eternally depressed CC crew in the Enso thread. But you're in a decent spot in Reisterstown being both inland and with a decent elevation. You should be at least moderately pumped, but patient because odds favor the second half of the winter. But we could still sneak one in ala 12/12/83 despite being +3.4 that month.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Amen brother, Amen! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That certainly explains it. The Control runs are 95%+ of the time garbage. EDIT: They didn't say it was the Control run, but the "weeklies". If they're going to say it's the weeklies, they need to include weeklies Control run. Pretty disingenuous if you ask me. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's not what Euro site shows. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202611010000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202612140000 -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Do not, do not -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Iow, we'd have to find something else to argue about?....That shouldn't be hard! Lol Thanks to Weather Will in MA forum, JB posted the Canadian's snowfall map for November's run. -
Couldn't agree more...well I guess I could, but that would be really weird. Lol
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Did you forget what happened in 2015?
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The difference between the Cansips and current Cfs2 runs isn't that much really. Precip signatures are very close indicating coastal storms. With Cfs2 running 4x/day, it's far from "done" adjusting one way or the other. For those of us inland (as in you and me), we'll have our shots for sure. -
If JB was worried about a blown forecast, he shouldn't limit it to just December as the cause. Lol
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'm impressed and excited. Look at that potential record breaking heat in the west. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We disagree on geographic labels. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
In these parts, November snow is rarer than March snow so temps are pretty meaningless. I'd rather save the oil for when it counts anyway. Lol -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. Even some in the NE US. -
Been beautiful up here since 10am with a NW breeze and a wonderful 71 degrees right now at one of the nearby Wunderground stations.
