mitchnick

Comparing this year to 4/1/15, 2015 was warmer in 3, 3.4 and 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for But after the pending wwb, there's nothing in site like it on the Cfs2. I don't know about other models however.

Latest SSTA in 3.4 is +.2C as of 4/1. Gotta have a lot of things go right for those +2C tri-monthlies, though there is plenty of time if they do. In the meantime, the trades are progged to hold east of the dateline through the 15th-17th of the month.

The usual suspects are all trying to outdo one another for clicks. Nobody knows with certainty what ssta will look like after the wwb, which is what counts, along with what comes after. Enso predictions have a way of humbling the honest forecasters imho.

Cfs2 has really responded to its December forecast over the last week. Top link is from 18z March 30th and bottom link 18z April 6. January likewise if you scroll forward. Precip is a wowzer too both months. Temps a little AN as expected, but in January it won't matter! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026033018&fh=9 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026040618&fh=8

Right. That doesn't conflict with what I said that we have a pending trade and then westerly burst. But I was talking about a return of trades after the westerly burst near the end of May. He skipped over that and says maybe another westerly burst in June. I was under the impression with your post that there were models other than the Cfs2 that showed westerly winds maintaining beginning with the westerly burst starting April 17th or so and beyond that pushes east of the dateline. And by the way, the maps in that last link you posted in Deoras' post are old. One is from 3/19 and the other is dated 3/18 (check the solid black line on the maps that say "Begin forecast period"...don't know why his 4/3 post would do that. If interested, the current maps are at the link below along with the current Cfs2 forecast that goes out into June that he references. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Which models show westerlies "taking over" Enso regions? I ask because after the pending trades and westerly burst, Cfs2 brings back the trades starting around the last week in May.

I'd roll the dice with that.

Not that anyone should care what I think, I'm stillnot seeing west anomalies prevailing over forecasts periods thru June. Gfs and Cfs are now both showing (I understand the relationship between the models) and easterly anomaly over the next week that has intensified over the past few days as reflected on the 2 attachments. That should knock 3.4 temps down a bit again. Again, I'm not saying a mod or strong Niño isn't possible, but more that the Niña continues to put up a decent fight.

New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast.

The Stormsurf link that I included in my post the other day has just added CFS2 Relative Nino plumes to its links, both raw and bias corrected. They are a little past half way down. Updated daily, they'll at least give us trends, which should make for a nice roller coaster ride over the next 9 or 10 months. Lol https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Wasn't March, 2025 a +NAO? Closer to +1 I believe.

Idk what's going to come of next winter, but this Stormsurf link has a lot of info and I've posted it before. Watching it the past 10-14 days, I'm not seeing off the Cfs links the things that were showing up back in 23/24. First of all, the SSTA plumes are starting to show a much weaker Nino. Likewise, as Chuck's mentioned, the SOI ain't cooperating. But what I find more compelling is the 3 month MJO forecast. The westerly wind anomalies represented by the yellow/red, seem to be stuck west of the dateline except for a brief intrusion east mid/late April-mid May. Moreover, there remains pockets of blue (easterly wind anomalies) scattered east of the dateline through the end of the forecast period in late June. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html I know it's early, but if that forecast doesn’t start showing some substantial changes, strong or super Niño forecasts look like a tough sell.

Snow in Hanover, but the back end is close. Just another reminder how this winter was a disappointment with snow.

My office used to be in Hanover. In fact, Emergency Management may be in the same complex if I'm not mistaken. If it is the same complex, rest assured she'll have better choices in the area to eat than Popeye's.

Fwiw, EuroAI still likes 26-28th period, but is on an island alone at this point.