mitchnick

Lots of feasts or famine on individual members.

Similar result to what the GfsAI would likely look like cobbling together the TT maps.

The Eps, Gefs and Geps snowfall thru day 10 look supportive of a storm favoring western locations (similar to EuroAI to my eyes). Geps is the look we've seen all winter favoring VA. How long until the Eps and Gefs look like Geps? Lol

Reinforcements look to be headed our way with the front. Inasmuch as all that has fallen so far came from the same trajectory over the PA mts, I would expect a decent % to make it over the mts especially considering the atmosphere is already saturated. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

It's right next to your outhouse with the half moon on the door.

GfsAI has the storm but a touch warmer than op. Hard to tell on the TT rudimentary maps.

Just gunna say. Not exactly like the Euro, but a big change from 12z that had nada.

This has GOT to stop!

Lt snow but coming down plentifully.

Same here except for random flurries until 3 or 4 minutes ago. Very light snow now.

I hope not. Flurries just started here fwiw.

What's this....the 8th modeled snowstorm on the AI thus season? Hard to get excited at this point. But we hope.

Hey...1990's! My youth! I missed it then, so don’t take it from me now.

Obviously, something fell before that panel which means probably a start as snow. Once you get to the red doted line, you're likely losing some part of mid levels.

My 2 cent opinion is that this Nina's last gasp of strong trades (blue on this map for those unfamiliar) is occurring and will remain until the end of February. That will make it difficult, if not unlikely, to squeeze in anything greater than a 2-4" event (if anything) imho. Come March, Niño conditions will finally overpower the Niña. Whether we can get everything to align (cold and qpf) is too early to say.