mitchnick

Gefs says yes, Eps has a ridge rolling in at 348hrs. Don't fall in love with either possibility, but Eps has been warm in the LR this fall/early winter fwiw.

I remember that vividly. Have a number of pics from that day in anticipation due to some funky clouds and during the event. I think Bob Chill was in his garage enjoy I ng it if memory serves.

Didn't see that, but the NWS forecast was cloudy.

Got a dusting and coming down pretty good. This wasn't in the forecast.

Here too to my surprise

Actually,it was intended to be a bit facetious, but accurate, joke. He actually pointed out good numbers on the SOI showing the Niña fading, but the SOI numbers themselves were "negative."

Do you always have to be so negative?

That makes 2 of us!

That post was based on the 12z runs. There have been 4 runs since and the AI has come up with 4 different forecasts. Apparently, it needs my time to learn.

Updated Euro seasonal out and it can't get out of its own way insisting on AN temps in the east. Don't buy it as mby has been BN for October and November contrary to the Eps seasonal. Heck, even September was only +.5F, also cooler than forecasted. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html

Hrrr support from the Srefs

18z Rgem came north fwiw.

No! We've seen failures in shorter times. Lol

18z Nam's a wreck. I think we're better off if the 12/5 threat fizzled and left some energy behind for our next long shot.