jm1220
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The source region for these "cold" shots is still Pacific origin, since we can't get a sustained ridge in the West to build up then deliver cold from Canada. It's somewhat modified Pacific air. Any attempt at a ridge gets blasted away by the raging Pacific jet developed from the boiling SSTs east of Japan. Rinse (or not since we're all in a drought aided by said pattern) repeat.
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Models over the last 24 hours have been getting less impressed, HRRR now has most of us at about 0.2”. Might end up being just a lot of virga with most of us just having the ground wet for a couple hours.
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Maybe we'll be rain weenies this winter for a random half inch that'll come by.
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33 here.
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Have to watch that SE ridge position and steepness. We live in a world now where if the NAO block is too south based it can link up with the SE ridge.
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Hopefully we officially get 19.3 flakes this winter.
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The Pacific changing back to a less hostile state should be enough to ramp the averages back up, not to the high bonanza period of the 2010s but we should be able to cash in once in a while with offshore coastal lows and cold enough air. The West certainly can, so we should too. The overall pattern is just way too hostile and has to change. But we’re just stuck with this garbage N PAC SST anomaly state blasting us with puke.
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Yep, I don’t see any savior coming like a massive NAO block in 20-21 to salvage a decent season. I think we’re largely screwed other than when we can get a lucky couple day period here and there and it can snow. The Pacific as you said is as hostile as can be. That boiling water east of Japan supercharges the Pacific jet and blowtorches the whole continent.
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Cooler toward the end of November?!! I damn sure hope so! Expect zilch this winter and be thrilled when something can happen.
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If Eastern folks means south of the NY/PA border to HFD-PVD line I totally agree. South of there is roughly where SWFE events are mostly lousy sleet to cold rain events and don’t meaningfully add to seasonal snow totals. Some exceptions happen like 2/22/08 but mostly are just garbage. These come all the time in Nina’s and especially in this new regime. NNE can really rack up snow from these since they are closer to any cold air source. Down here I have zero optimism, I don’t see any wild card like 20-21 coming to save us. At least the rain is hopefully warmer and we won’t have a useless Christmas bomb with useless cold like 2022. I’m sure the Adirondacks to ME will be just fine and they do best in this horrendous disaster regime. The Pacific has to meaningfully change before our outcomes will.
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Will probably be another great winter for the West. Another defining factor the last few winters at least and no indication that’s changing.
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I’m not concerned about a long term drought here. Sooner or later the Nina cutter train will start up and precip wise we’ll catch up.
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If there’s one OK winter period IMBY where it can snow more than a few inches I’d take that as a win. Otherwise the blinds are slammed shut. Honestly this warm weather is fine by me, if it won’t snow I hate useless cold. We do need the rain but sooner or later I’m sure the Nina cutters train will start up.
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Yep, winds calm. Some places a little lower in elevation than me are in the 30s already.
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Northerly winds can get it done in a storm here since the air would come from inland New England. When we have any easterly component off the water it typically kills it unless somehow we have a cold enough preceding airmass. Water is too warm until late in the month. For the Boston area and SE New England same problem.
