Met1985

Oh yeah not trying to be a pain but with the current climate and all the variables. I wish it was as easy as it used to be. With pattern recognition and rolling things forward. Seems like it's more frustrating than anything.

Yeah obviously last year was an anomaly of sorts. If we do see a mild November then we may be cooked for Winter. But im hedging on the optimistic side of things with us being in a weak enso state and a multitude of other factors.

Well let's hope this one is different because I do think that this November starts out cold but goes mild and may average out to above average in temps. But as we've all talked about these winter patterns tend to last 4 to 6 weeks so mild November, cold December, mild January and possibly cold February? Obviously the blocking is a crapshoot and there is no way of really forecasting that with any kind of accuracy. But I do like the PV in a constant weakened state and we've already seen that this Fall. Oh the joys of this hobby lol.

With today's climate and also a plethora of variables im not so sure about a cold November leads to a cold winter. Last November was pretty warm for many and we then had one of the coldest January's on average in about 30 years. I think we actually see a mixed bag this winter to average things out in my opinion.

Yes it would have. About a foot plus.

The PV remaining weak can lead to better and more blocking sessions in the NAO and AO regions. The PV has remained weak all the way back to last spring and so far this Fall has continued that trend.

Socked in here with just a bit of color remaining. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The latest EC46 showing a significant deceleration of the stratospheric vortex as we progress through November with a small cluster showing a major stratospheric warming early December. The models at long range want to strengthen the PV but it never fully does. I still don't think it does and this will lead to better blocking down the road hopefully for our area. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I was just going to post about this, this evening.

Yep. I went from 39 to 42 for a high and that's where im at currently. That's impressive for the end of October.

This week will definitely help with any drought worries. I still like our chances of seeing a mix around here at least especially if the cold core low passes right over us. And it looks like we see several cold fronts passing down in the next week or two.

Yeah especially in these downpours. They've canceled work for us today so going back home myself.

You might not get out of the 30s today.

A raw morning out with a low of 39 and rain knocking on the door.

A spectacular Fall day. A high of 54 and current temp of 44.