NC_hailstorm

GFS is still going with the dig and dump solution out west day 7/8. EURO,Canadian,ICON,UK disagree at the moment and keep things progressive.

Euro brings the big dog late in the run,good grief.

There's also the 11 year solar lag response for NAO,AO.Also affects the Aleutian Low Doesn't guarantee cold other things have to be included as QBO,ENSO,and MJO and where they are. On average for eastern/central N America Lag 0 year-warm Lag 1 year -warm Lag 2 year -warm Lag 3 year warm Lag 4 year- cold (here now) Lag 5 year- cold Lag 6 year-cold Lag 7 year -cold Lag 8 year-cold Lag 9 year- neutral to cold Lag 10 year-warm Lag 11 year -warm

Seen that,and the Euro is sorta honking too but not as big .Makes sense MJO coming into phase 8 around the new year.

The PNA is very positive,AO is negative let's see what happens.

Good grief a 972 low on the Canadian.

Don't know if it's right but a hit on the Icon tonight.......

Canadian might be a hit for western NC,foothills,western piedmont. Heck of a storm off the coast.

Just from what I'm seeing at 144,the UKMET,ICON,and Canadian have more shortwave energy further north in CO,OK.and northern TX. Euro a tick south of there,GFS way way south of there. Oh and the GFS is scoring very poorly lately,way behind the other three. NOAA/NWS Headline Scores: ACC 31 Days

Good news I have the S word in the forecast now Sunday Snow before 10am, then rain. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Yep that wacky 0z GFS is dropping that PV into the USA late in the run.

Think that was the 1st Euro run that dropped the polar vortex into the USA,GFS has already had a few.

Euro is bringing the hammer at day 7,polar vortex dropping into the upper midwest with strong ridging on the west coast.

No worries the 18z GFS is going all 1899 again lol.

The 12z GFS has a strat split/reversal up at 20mb at day 11.GaWx is right a technical SSW is a reversal at 10mb but anything above 30mb can shake up a pattern from what I've read.Carry on.