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my total uneducated guess - there are still some robust cyclical/decadal global patterns that are not as influenced by climate change as others and/or are more influenced by climate change but in a way that can occasionally correlate with potentially good winter patterns. eg, 80 degrees in anchorage and baffin island on January 15th with 594dm omega blocks and 113 degree ocean temps in the Atlantic (all hyperbole of course) - which is more likely to mix here and more likely to not be able to access siberian airmasses, but still have an elevated chance of something stupid happening like a cutoff over the TN valley that stalls and gives the burbs 18-24". tl;dr - I think DCA will have a 35"+ winter over the next 5 years and at least one -7 or colder winter month, and IAD will have an 18"+ event. Problem is the other 4 years lol. DCA 2024-25: +5, 3.1" 2025-26: +2, 6.3" 2026-27: -2, 38.4" 2027-28: +4, 1.8" 2028-29: +1, 8.7" I guess we take? Do we have a choice?

It is, but I'm trolling them. I know it isnt obvious looking at the post, but all the winters mentioned were awful for Boston. And in Nov-Dec 73 they were shut out. Silly inside jokey stuff that a handful of posters there will get. We've been on these forums for 25 years now. We have to keep it fun, especially now that it no longer snows in DC.

Bust

I remember 07-08 up there. SWFE for days and days I've been looking at specific Nov-Dec analogs, and I think I like Nov-Dec 1973 the best. Pretty decent in DC. Not sure how you all fared.

My top analogs for 2024-2025. Mixed bag for DC. I think Boston did pretty well during these winters. Good luck guys. 36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

49/39 here at midnight, h*****. Love the chilly airmass. I still haven't turned my heat on. I did put on a hoodie this morning, but felt ashamed.

Looks like August will finish -0.1 so June +3.4 July +2.7 August -0.1 overall +2 3rd hottest summer on record behind 2010 and 2011

what did HM predict?

Hey H****d. Looks reasonable to me.

December isn’t a winter month. You will have to wait until March 34th for your 8”+

I haven’t looked at much yet, but haven’t seen any reason for optimism so far

This is pretty early for fake fall. damn. 65/52. I think I hit 58 this morning. Someone at the coffee shop was complaining about how chilly it was this morning and I gave them the evil eye.

whats up y'all 64/52 here. What an amazing day for August

Congrats all. Seems most people did really well with avoiding too much cloud cover. And the folks in western NY had some heads up to get out of there. Of course that isn't realistic for everyone.

Mansfield is a good spot. Surprised you got a room!?