RodneyS

You're welcome. This contest is always a lot of fun -- especially when you win, as you did five years ago.

See below summary table. We have 69 entrants this year, which is about halfway between two years ago (64 entrants) and last year (75 entrants). 52 of our 69 entrants this year played last year, and 17 either played two years or more ago or are new to the contest. The forecasts are generally lower this year. Specifically, here are this season's mean forecasts for each airport, with last year's mean forecasts in parentheses: BWI 14.1 (25.5), DCA 9.3 (18.4), IAD 16.0 (28.1), RIC 6.8 (13.5). The actual totals last year were: BWI 11.3, DCA 8.0, IAD 11.7, RIC 0.7. So this year's forecasts are in line with last year's actuals, with the exception of RIC, which presumably last year was an aberration for the second straight time.

November 2024 at DCA has for sure broken the record high average November DC temperature of 54.8 degrees, which was set in 2001. DCA finished at 55.2, which resulted in a record high January-November average of 63.6, beating the previous 11-month record of 63.1, which was set in 2012. That puts DCA on course to break the previous DC calendar year record of 61.6, also set in 2012. All that is needed is for DCA to average 39.0 degrees or higher in December -- 39.0 would be 2.7 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. Note: Edited on December 1st because the final November 2024 DCA temperature average was 55.2, rather than 55.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 -2.5 -3.6 -1.5 2.9 2.6 1.1 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 5.8 22.0 38.5 42.5 45.0 99.0 58.0 9.5 85.0

Reminder: The deadline for this contest is fast approaching: Sunday, December 1, at 11:59 PM EST -- the contest will lock then, and no late entries will be permitted. So, if you have not entered thus far and wish to do so, follow my below example (except for using the same numbers) and do it now. BWI: 9.6" DCA: 5.8" IAD: 12.1" RIC: 6.1" Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.4"

FYI, Reagan National Airport received a trace of snow today. I mention this because on only two previous occasions since this contest began did DCA receive a trace or more in November. The first time was the first year of the contest, when DCA received a trace on both November 13th and 26th, 2014. During the 2014-15 snow season, DCA received 18.3 inches of snow. The second time was six years ago, when DCA received 1.4 inches on November 15th, 2018. During the 2018-19 snow season, DCA received 16.9 inches of snow. Both of those years were Weak El Ninos, and so you can draw your own conclusions as to whether November snow has any predictive value this season.

Okay, so I'll list your current guess for DCA as 2.5 inches.

@Scarlet Pimpernel Does that mean that your actual DCA guess is zero?

Thanks.

@IronTyDp you have a tiebreaker for LYH or SBY?

Today reached 84 at DCA, the warmest temperature ever in DC from November 5th to February 24th. February 25, 1930 also reached 84, and the first day in a calendar year to exceed that was March 8, 2000, which reached 85.

You omitted RIC.

Your point is well-taken. I just did an analysis that shows that the DCA October 2024 average maximum of 73.0 (3.6 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 8th warmest in DC history. On the other hand, the DCA October 2024 average minimum of 53.0 (0.8 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 27th warmest in DC history. So, in contrast to many recent months over many recent years, the average maximum was much further above the recent normal than the average minimum was. As a personal observation, when you couple the DCA October 2024 maximum range of 60 to 83 degrees and the minimum range of 44 to 67 degrees with only 1.48 inches of precipitation (all of which fell on the first two days of the month), a case can be made that October 2024 was the best month in DC history for sunny and pleasant weather.

Your tiebreaker could be the key to victory . . . but not necessarily your victory.