SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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The RGEM was headed that way too it seemed.
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None really getting up into SNE but I think it still could. I do believe though Sunday needs to go away or be very flat. Its noticeable on many Op runs and individual ensembles that those which are amped or more intense Sunday as a whole are flat or nonexistent with the second event.
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Might be some wild temp gradients if that heat wave verifies, probably mid to high 70s in NJ and maybe low 50s on LI. Does not look like it lasts terribly long, another cold stretch could easily occur by mid month or slightly before
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The Euro and AI both came north for late tomorrow, still more or less total misses but would be funny if GFS nailed another one
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The AI has suddenly gotten a bit shaky the last few weeks. I'm to the point I am blending the GFS with the CMC/Op Euro because its been wildly flopping around with systems since about the start of the month.
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UKMET is basically non existent with it. Partly because I am sure it has that first system at 90 way north and more amped than anything else does. If that happens I think it increases the odds the 2nd one is flat.
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This one continues to be incredibly complicated and now we have a subtle front running disturbance ahead of the main ejector too showing on all models. That could potentially help pushing the main one more south but it could also lead to suppression too
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The timing of the ejection is everything. Anything from PHL-DC or BOS north could be the bullseye with that setup
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Next weeks threat is pretty thread the needle. Really need to eject the shortwave at the right time, otherwise you'll get suppression or a track too far north.
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1996 was when most of LI got 5-10 inches of snow. I think it never really accumulated west of there. Mets opener in 2013 or 2014 ISP had 5 inches of snow that morning, not sure it ever snowed by the stadium
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I'd say we can toss Thursday now just about though in winters like this I would caution don't dump it totally. Because this is the type of winter it'll find a way to make a comeback and we get a couple of inches.
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Now the 18Z AI way south and the Euro lost it
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I was suspicious of how much liquid fell from 2-4pm. The 1-2pm made sense but I wondered if the ensuing QPF was perhaps melting of snow off the sensor or something as it seemed way too high. I could buy they got 20.1 or something as it snowed decently from 1-2pm but not sure they realistically got anything after that.
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NYC schools never closed til the 2/11/94 debacle. After that they more or less close for any major snow event.
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In general any El Nino, especially in today's climate of over 1.5 is going to be a fairly mild winter nationwide. Even 09-10 was not all that cold, it was just narrowly cold enough to snow.
