SnowGoose69

Well the TWC behind the scenes folks sure like the NRN most solutions. Their depictions at least in the MA on S and W are on par with the CMC or UKMET.

Its pretty safe to say this event up this way will not be as insanely long duration in all likelihood as it may be down in the SE because they may see a crazy long overrunning period. I felt the 12Z Op Euro was gonna go full blown UKMET when I saw it through like 96 hours but it ultimately deviated after that.

I'd think no at this range. I think the mid-level warm advection will push a layer somewhere over 0C very early on

I still think they mostly end up sleet but long way to go. If some CMC version occurs or close to it the risk is there for mostly FZRA but they'd also be drier in that case though

CMC was just slower overall but also moved towards the more east later transfer idea. I said last night that either happens way west in the TN Valley or in coastal SC/GA in these setups. It won't typically happen over WRN GA/AL.

I would not worry a ton about the GFSAI. If the EUROAI begins going flatter its more a concern.

Better than the GFS but this is not the type of storm the CMC tends to make big scores on. I like the CMC for major phasing events between the NRN/SRN streams or classic Miller As that result in deep surface lows. It can tend to be less reliable in this type of storm.

CMC gets there to a degree still but I have felt for awhile its idea was nonsensical, we do not typical see phases happen in the location it had been trying to show it. I more buy the interaction and turn north happening later along or off the SC/GA/NC coast

CMC definitely moving towards the GFS/Euro idea it seems so far

ALL models do! lol

Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48. 2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did

I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA. They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.

Euro/AI solution makes more sense as to how it evolves. I still like flatter down in the Deep South with more a late evolution to near the CMC idea off the MA coast

The CMC is phasing/turning the corner in a climatologically very rare location. I have seen some systems do that but they are often monster deep Miller A lows. I think in the end that idea would result in a phase either earlier and more west or more likely east near the SC/GA coast or GA coastline

Its phasing the storm at an unusual point climatologically. Chances are it will either phase and turn the corner quite a bit west of that or more down towards the coast. No question verbatim its solution is unlikely to the T, you'd need to have a much more dynamic phase or deep low.