SnowGoose69

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win. In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right. Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon. Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile.

They'll still likely beat OU. Albeit, OU caught a huge break not getting MIA/ND. Those teams even vs their D would post 25-30 probably which would be too much for OU to overcome, Bama they might be able to defend their way out of it

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles. Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later. Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

Both GEFS runs and the GEPS today seemed to get cold feet on the warmup after 300 hours, the EPS not as much

I am surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS at 360

It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern. When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east. We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast. Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13. Look at 162 hours today its not even close. There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength. We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does. We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong

Its just really a bunch of clippers

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though