SnowGoose69

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well. But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it. The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too. The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing.

Inside this range go with the 3km NAM/Euro/RGEM...they're going to handle this better than the GFS.

The Euro is probably overdone on magnitude, but I could see a 1.6 or 1.7 peak still which is a tad too much for the East...you ideally want around 0.8-1.2 for the best winters in El Ninos.

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern. Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990. Its become quite rare now. It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping. Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

Since the 2014 disaster I think everyone just stays home now. I know the Dec 2017 storm which was a forecasting disaster it was close to another mess but temps stayed just a nose high enough the roads did not ice up before the evening.

Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come. Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way more cautious these days about not doing that. Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.

I'd go like 0.5-1.5 for ATL with a risk of up to 2.5-3 in worst case. But I think WSW criteria there is 2 if its all snow though I am not sure on that. I think though NE parts of Fulton county may see 2 so all you need is one report of that somewhere. I was surprised DeKalb was not in a warning to begin with.

I remember CHS airport closed for a week back in 2018. I could not believe there was no snow removal equipment within a reasonable driving distance. They just waited for it to melt

WSW in GA is being expanded SW shortly over ATL. I think it should have been a county back anyway. Decent chance of the threshold being met

Nothing. Warnings got put out at 3-4am and by 8-9am there was already a few inches

I think Athens is going to see 4 plus from this. I'd like to be a bit east of them to feel really good but I just think ratios with this will be solid.

I did my first one last year fully awake lol, they had to be convinced to even allow it. Most GIs do not anymore, not because its hard to do (in Europe and many other parts of world its standard practice due to medical costs) but nowadays because its becoming harder for US doctors to make money many have a policy of no colonoscopies without sedation because they get paid boatloads more money if its used. Same as many, if you have kids know that for orthodontists its way more lucrative to do wisdom teeth pulls with sedation than without. In our case it was 1200$ less without it

Yeah, I mean even places like Stone Mountain and Norcross could get like 3-4 from this with just a marginal west bump. The airport though or Marietta I think needs quite a bit of help to exceed 2.

I'd still not give up on this NYC east...I don't think NYC is getting 8 inches but would I be shocked if they got 3 and Montauk got 12? No. Most storms in 2026 at this range I'd feel good about not seeing major changes at this range but this setup to me has too many moving parts. I could even see places like SE VA/SE MASS having massive changes still....I'd not feel good in either of those places.