SnowGoose69

EPS/GEPS at 00Z long range were close, GEFS not much but at 06Z GEFS was closer to those 2. Seems main difference is GEFS though stronger on the negative side on the AO/NAO is more + on the EPO and - on the PNA than the EPS/GEPS. But if we go with history as GA has posted a few times, odds favor the +PNA in January in these similar winters.

Its sort of a SWFE behaving event, I guess its an overrunning storm, but yeah very few historical matches to this

Comes in as the 6th closest match. Closest according to CIPS is 12/14/95, overall this setup has more of the NW-SE dive though, 1995 the low tracked well north so the results of that to me are not a good match. 12/19/79 looks like by far the closest match on track but this system is more juiced and more broad. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1979/us1219.php

It also went insanely north with yesterday's event at about 48-60 hours out too. Given nothing else at 00Z did that I'd not really change any ideas yet. The RRFS/RGEM at this range have recently tended to have slight suppression/amped biases respectively so something near what the GFS shows is what I'd go with now

Up here I could see it, down there a 40 mile shift they'd be mainly sleet or freezing rain

We'll see over the next 12-24 but this may be the start of the 40 or so mile push NE I expected could happen, thats every 18z model minus the ICON more or less.

2/8/94 did that down here. Overrunning events tend to do that, it often comes right at the beginning where it goes gangbusters or somewhere mid-end while the in between periods are light.

ATL seems to have missed 79 but I would imagine they beat it easily either tomorrow or on the 27th more likely based on temps aloft. 84-85 is reachable on the 27th I think

GFS will always underdo mid-level warmth though in that scenario the flow aloft at the warmest level is like from 280, not as bad as it being from 230 but probably still verbatim underdone a bit. Its why I said before you'll see ratios near 10:1 eventually, even if its 25F at the surface if you're -1C at 750 or 800

There's been many. 97-98 and 01-02 never had one for the 5 boroughs but may have had them NW but there's been quite a few winters with none. Obviously forecasts 30-40 years ago were so poor we had many storms with WSWs issue that today never would have been out.

We have had more legit threats overall though than we did in that stretch. In hindsight 3/14/99 and 1/25/00 both should have had WSWs out but model hiccups and some gaffs by the NWS led to neither being forewarned.

I think there was one since December 2020 I just don’t remember when. March 96 to December 29 2000 without one though still remains the most insane thing ever.

Surprised they left E Suffolk out but these days they rarely put areas in they are not highly confident reach 6 or will have both snow/mixed precip

Yeah it’s why often times on coastals Long Island does well but so does Passaic and Orange. That may be due to elevation at times as well but so frequently on benchmark track storms there is a secondary max up in that area

You'll end up as always here with someone on the far NE edge getting smoked while what you thought would be a jackpot zone gets less than forecast and places SW of that zone doing as well as was expected. You always sort of want to be 20-40 miles NW/N/NE of where at 24 hours out the biggest snows are likely because often times the zone expected to do best gets fronto/banding screwed by an area to their N.