SnowGoose69

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength. We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does. We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong

Its just really a bunch of clippers

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period. I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last I heard the NAM may run for another year or so. Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events. The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels. The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

Next year the RRFS is supposed to replace it

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow

The Euro has nailed the last 2 events in the Upper Midwest, I'll say that much. But this is a totally different setup and area of the country.

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol. That was more or less the pattern that winter. The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

The RRFS looks reasonable with 2-4 or 3-5 up that way which is good news because it'll be the NAM replacement within a year.