SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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I'd say we can toss Thursday now just about though in winters like this I would caution don't dump it totally. Because this is the type of winter it'll find a way to make a comeback and we get a couple of inches.
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Now the 18Z AI way south and the Euro lost it
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I was suspicious of how much liquid fell from 2-4pm. The 1-2pm made sense but I wondered if the ensuing QPF was perhaps melting of snow off the sensor or something as it seemed way too high. I could buy they got 20.1 or something as it snowed decently from 1-2pm but not sure they realistically got anything after that.
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NYC schools never closed til the 2/11/94 debacle. After that they more or less close for any major snow event.
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In general any El Nino, especially in today's climate of over 1.5 is going to be a fairly mild winter nationwide. Even 09-10 was not all that cold, it was just narrowly cold enough to snow.
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I still don't think its that strong. I've been tossing the CFS/Euro on ENSO predictions for a few years now. They've generally been overdone.
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QBO may not be favorable next winter. I think even if the El Nino is like 0.8-1.3 which is ideal magnitude it may be heavily backloaded with December at risk to be very warm. I saw 86-87 being thrown around early as possibly being a similar match.
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The HREF seems to do well on big events where there is going to be widespread 8 plus amounts. Lesser storms, especially with marginal temps it seems to be overdone most times.
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The CPK measurement is logical to me, LGA is a bit suspicious
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It'll be snowing for awhile longer so I think they measure again at 4-430
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12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess.
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"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.
SnowGoose69 replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Airport had 5 at 7am. I have to think they are near 12 now already -
Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event. I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles. Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic.
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.38 liquid since then. So would assume they at least have 19 or so now
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Providence will likely see the most of the airports. I could see 30 there. The HREF was fairly close with many areas on this
