SnowGoose69

The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8. I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning. I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time. You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989. I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it. In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive. We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.

There was just a ton of bad luck. It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89. Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed

I guess the snow total was skewed by the 4/1 event. Overall it was a strange winter because indice wise it was good in December and January. There was just no snow or it was all inland

The 90s were odd depending where you were. 92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters. 93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas. At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb. The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen. It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern. If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs. Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though. It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

The last minute or two I think they are partially in the eye. Conditions seemed to have improved a bit

Definitely picked up as soon as winds flipped more NW from the ENE

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE