SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer. If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening. As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday
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Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.
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AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.
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This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much
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Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it
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I think this will be weak-moderate. The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events. I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.
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I'm amazed in 02-03 it did not totally freeze
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Tomorrow night looks a bit too windy, if it was not I think many places would go below 0 outside urban areas Monday AM.
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Yeah it looked done. My co-worker walked in at 6 and was really upset about his forecast from the evening prior thinking it was going to bust. Around 10pm he finally began to talk again lol, but it was dead silence til I finally said I think you're gonna be good
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That late capture with the upper low really saved us. That was quite close to busting west of central Long Island til the last minute. Similar to December 2009
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33 years ago a setup that had some similarities to this weekend, synoptics of the snow were not the same, was more a weak surface feature forming as the arctic boundary came south. 2-5 inches fell, mostly from the CT coast/NJ/NY border south with little north of there. Forecast was T-1 inch and it just kept snowing til like 3-4pm. Setup looked like one that was a classic below 0 setup, but only HPN made it to 0. ISP got to 2. Airmass just was not quite cold enough aloft despite the snowpack. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0206.php https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0207.php
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Its quite amazing how much that SER feature has flattened from 2/11-2/13 the last couple of days, even for places way down south, its like 2/09 and 10 are now the only really much above days in there
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One thing I have definitely noticed with the AI models beyond 120 is they tend to deviate less wildly from their ensemble average. The GFS/Euro Op have been showing December 2015 like ridges the last 2 days late in their runs at times. The AI GFS/Euro seem to look way more like the ensemble mean and that has been the case most of the winter.
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I felt like all El Nino summers here have been at best average. I just checked and since the 80s only 2002 and 2018 were above normal and that was by 0.2 and skewed mostly by August. I was surprised to see 1991 was not above normal. Its common to see places nearby like PA/OH average above though. I assume 2018 may have been an issue with coupling as we saw the ensuing winter. Makes me wonder if perhaps a sign an El Nino may not act like one in winter is a mild summer in the NE
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I'd classify 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 as Miller Bs more than SWFEs, 12/14/03 was a SWFE though more of a south approacher like 11/2018 was...most come in from way further west than that so the core of the heaviest snows occur to our W and N. Overall systems do seem to amplify more now, we rarely see these weak washed out systems anymore like a 2/8/94 or 2/2008, those types of events always seem to want to majorly intensify or amp. There are numerous reasons why thats the case, likely the Pac SSTs being one of them
