SnowGoose69
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About SnowGoose69
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
we all know models have this right where we want it right now -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
That was the winter they had like 35 inches of snow in Dec then had 5 or 6 inches the entire remainder of the winter -
Its been hard to know in recent years if the MJO is really the problem or its just coincidentally been in bad phases when the Pac has otherwise been bad. Many of those winters such as 93-94 95-96 00-01 02-03 03-04 09-10 10-11 13-14 all had the MJO in bad phases and yet the pattern was still favorable here.
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
95 and 00 only 2 I remember that were cold the whole way and even 95 I think the final week was somewhat mild. -
The GEFS is almost a -EPO/+PNA...really everything is which is why I question somewhat if heights on the W Coast or Rockies will be that high as in recent years any true +PNA has been rare.
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HRRR/NAM both don't show nearly the QPF into NE NJ/NYC which is likely the higher res models seeing the downslope impact IMO. I have been suspect given the WSW flow that we'd see that much moisture south of the low
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
Those correlations never work in such small sample sizes and you can sort of toss 1931 given what ERA that was. There is no doubt this year has some similarities to 01 though given its most recent, near the solar max and also a cold neutral setup. That said, that followed 3 straight La Ninas too while this winter comes off an El Nino -
Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
That was like a weenie generated run. Add in the 1989 like cold shot that is coming down at 360 from NW Canada to the 2 storms -
The best part is its going to try and have a second storm behind it
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Not sure the Pac is really to blame, the system just is just going to be more closed off than originally anticipated a few days ago, there is plenty of cold air to have otherwise been tapped across south central Canada and without the close off Thu-Sun would have been pretty cold across the East, even down into the deep south. The Pac is more to blame for the relaxation in the D7-11 period which the post from bluewave shows the models never saw coming 5 days back. The one positive we are at least seeing so far is higher heights wanting to keep showing up near AK which Eric Webb and a few others on X have been hinting at for a couple of months the setup this year is one where historically some winters have had the -EPO or the poleward ridge into AK. I am not sure if the fact we now might have more of a neutral winter vs weak Nina is problematic somewhat for that. It could allow the QBO/MJO/solar to end up being more dominant.
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On 2/11/94 my district as always just was refusing to close. Finally the parents calling in furious led to them at like 750am saying they were closed. My mom had already decided no way was I going in that day. We were always one of the hardest districts on LI to close back in the 80s/90s. We went from Jan 87 to 2/9/94 without a single snow day which was remarkable. Weekend events helped that out somewhat but still there were plenty of bad week day events where we stayed open and almost 90% of LI was closed. Setauket was another district notorious for never wanting to close back in the day.
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I have definitely noticed a tendency for the Pacific or GOA pattern in late November to often end up carrying through the winter. I had never checked the stats on it but it seems more frequently it translates to Dec-Feb whereas the NAO in late November can mean nothing at all. Obviously 2 notable cases that failed though were 89-90 and 93-94. 89 was about as perfect as it could get and went to hell after December. 1993 is the only case I recall where the AK vortex was a mainstay from late Nov into mid December and then retrograded and never came back the rest of the winter. I had written off that winter by 12/15 based on that pattern and even CPC which back in those days tended to do much more scientific winters forecast a very mild winter for 93-94.
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Most sources have not yet even updated their sites to show it. Accuwx has yet to. As a matter of fact Accuwx had to overhaul their site just to get the Euro to display yesterday as the upgrade messed with things enough it was not displaying anything but thicknesses.
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If La Nina truly fades to nearly nothing or fails to really even hold weak status there is a better chance February is not as torchy though not a guarantee. We've had plenty of leaning cold phase neutral winters with bad Februarys too
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Yeah right now looks like maybe we can carry a workable pattern 11/22 til 12/5 or so as my hunch is the -NAO and the west ridge won't just snap off by 12/1 but probably 12/5-12/20 is going to be bad, how bad depends on the PDO. If its -1.5 and not -3.5 something can sneak in if we assume Canada is not torched like last year.
