SnowGoose69

Thats like a -7 NAO on the GFS at 300. I'm sure the GEFS will look different.

Chances are those will be wrong. The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter. I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February

They seem to think we're in an El Nino

As long as Canada stays cold this flips quickly if the PNA goes positive if the other indices largely remain where they are. If somehow though we get a week or 2 of a GOA vortex we're probably done til 1/20 at least. No signs of that though

It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything. The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern. We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.

We probably need some heavy changes if we're gonna get that 12th straight La Nina +PNA Jan after a -PNA Dec. I don't see a -2.5 on 12/31 flipping to positive before 1/10 or 1/15. Does not mean we won't see cold and snow though if the AO/NAO are negative

That looks like a lock. Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal

Well hopefully the GEFS idea of the SER linking with the NAO block does not happen because by the end of the run we have a decent -NAO

They got 2.8 last year and it did not turn out well

JFK broke the record from 12/14/2003 by 0.1

They actually came in 0.1 higher than LGA. You can see a noticeable dip in accumulations in NE NJ near NYC into Queens/Brooklyn. Some of that was the heat island but some also was this area got hit by subsidence somewhat. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

I think they'll be right near 3-3.5

They weren’t that far off. I got 1.6 at 9am. I was surprised how much it melted or must have been melting. My guess is they’ll end around 2.1 to 2.4

.11 liquid since. Probably about 8 or 10:1 so I'd say yeah they have to be near 3.5

All stations will be trying to break the 12/14/03 daily record tomorrow. Not sure any do it, will need over 4.5 to do so except for JFK