donsutherland1

There very likely was measurable snowfall on May 4, 1812. The newspapers described a violent snowstorm (likely heavy wet snow) that was "among the rarities of the season." The reports noted that the snow fell all day and accumulated.

Tomorrow will be another warm day with temperatures topping out in the lower and middle 70s. Showers and thundershowers will likely bring a moderate rainfall tomorrow into Sunday morning. The region will generally see 0.35"-0.85" of rain with some locally higher amounts. Sunday will be the coolest day of the weekend with the temperature struggling to reach 60°. Temperatures will rebound into the 70s early next week. April will end on a warmer than normal note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -1.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.611 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

The trade winds and dominant circulations are almost certainly responsible for the cooling of SSTs.

New Study: Rapid changes in temperature have become more common as the climate has warmed Abstract: Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58544-5

Today was another warm day before the sea breeze pushed in. Temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the area. The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend. Sunday will also be the coolest day with readings topping out in the lower and middle 60s. Temperatures will rebound into the 70s early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -5.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.666 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

It will turn quite warm for the middle of next week, but there remain differences on the guidance concerning the magnitude of the warmth. IMO, May looks to be warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal.

Today was another delightful spring day. Readings rose into the 70s. The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -7.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.743 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.1° above normal).

Temperatures surged well into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. The warm weather will continue through the week. It will turn somewhat cooler but remain mild during the weekend. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around April 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +2.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.405 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.4° (0.7° above normal).

It very likely has far more to do with Southern Atlantic Convergence Zone dynamics than what JB hypothesizes. After all, JB uses the same explanation to argue for overall ocean warming when, in fact, surface temperatures have warmed faster than deep water (2000 meters and below) temperatures. A good paper on the topic that is likely relevant here is: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06195-3

A few showers are possible tonight as a warm front moves across the region. It will again turn milder tomorrow. The generally mild weather will continue through the week. It will also remain mainly dry into at least the middle of the week. A moderate rainfall is possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +14.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.131 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (0.3° above normal).

The generally mild weather will continue into at least the middle of the week, although tomorrow could be briefly cooler. It will also remain mainly dry into at least the middle of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +11.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.953 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.7° (near normal).

It probably depends on the exact angle of the wind.

I've updated the JFK number. The 5 pm reading came in at 78.

Periodic AI update: Through April 12th: Through April 19th (preliminary): The one area where the AI idea appears to be at the highest risk of being off is April precipitation. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the April mean temperature should finish within 1° of the AI estimate. With today's high temperature, the AI estimate for the monthly high temperature is very close to what has occurred.

The New York City area experienced an early taste of summer today with the temperature soaring to the highest level so far this year in many parts of the region. Highs included: Islip: 76° New York City-Central Park: 85° New York City-JFK Airport: 78° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86° (old record: 85°, 1976 and 2002) Newark: 87° White Plains: 84° The generally mild weather will continue into at least the middle of next week, although Monday could be briefly cooler. It will also remain mainly dry into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late spring. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +0.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.737 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.6° (0.1° below normal).