OHweather

Picked up another 2" yesterday and last night. So, 0.4" on Friday, 2.3" Friday night, 2" Saturday into Saturday night for a 4.7" event total. Fluffy snow. Geauga and inland Ashtabula Counties will be missed LES warnings due to the Huron connection

The physics background definitely helps I’m sure! I’ve considered it, but I do enjoy forecasting it full time (most days) and would likely need to go back and get a bit more education to do it. So I don’t have any current plans, but things change and who knows how long I’ll want to do these rotating shifts for.

Sort of kind of. The upcoming Pacific puke/warm up is definitely driven by a half-decent MJO passage out of the Indian Ocean into the western Pacific, which is adding a good bit of westerly momentum into the Pacific jet: What's also contributing to the upcoming strong Pacific jet and warm up is a strong high pressure dropping into eastern Asia, which puts a significant torque against the Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau and also acts to speed up the Pacific jet: Into early January, the MJO will attempt to work across the Pacific and appears likely to weaken, allowing the warm waters over the western Pacific to become the primary source of tropical forcing. The east Asian mountain torque will also weaken somewhat, though won't completely reverse. All of this should give us a nice mix of allowing the Pacific jet to back off just enough to allow ridging to pop on the west coast (as opposed to the upcoming strong +EPO and strong Pacific jet into the west coast), while keeping the Pacific jet strong enough that the ridge doesn't slide back towards the north central Pacific (which would be a -PNA/SE ridge pattern).

Garbage pattern for the next 10 days or so, sure. But it's looking like January will feature plenty of wintry opportunities. Hopefully not too boring for some people though. Pacific puke in the short-medium term. However, good agreement that backs off quickly as we head into January. It will take a bit of time for truly cold air to start returning to the CONUS since the source region will be scoured so badly over the next 7-10 days. However, it should start trending colder during the first week of January with legitimate potential for notable cold to return by the second week of the month. The initial pattern, with a ridge on the west coast and trough axis over the eastern U.S., is not conducive to big snows in the region. However, it'd at least offer some potential for clippers and there could be a more notable low pressure of some sorts the beginning of January towards the beginning of the pattern change. Towards the end of the loop, the ridge axis shifts west towards Alaska and there are hints the sub-tropical jet becomes more active into the second week of January. Those trends should shift the trough axis farther west and could provide for some phasing opportunities over the Plains the 2nd-3rd week of January.

A bit over 2” here last night into this morning. Still seeing some off and on snow showers, but as expected the Huron band is well to my east. Maybe can squeak out another inch.

Feeling optimistic that we’ll at least need some advisories where the Lake Huron band sets up late Friday night and Saturday. The clipper still isn’t that impressive, but should bring light snow to much of northern Ohio on Friday at least.

Little clipper may graze us on Friday (though it seems like the swath of snow is targeting areas west/southwest of the Cleveland area the most), with some lake effect/enhanced snow Friday evening/night as the flow comes around to the north, with lingering lake effect in a north-northwest flow into the weekend. This doesn't look like a huge set-up, but probably will yield at least some light accumulations in areas impacted by the clipper and/or anything off the lake.

The idea of snow showers/squalls with the Arctic front was advertised decently well, but the localized amounts were predicted quite poorly, and the lack of a snow squall warning as that crap came in (which we can now issue without the burden of everyone’s wireless emergency alerts blowing up) probably didn’t help for anyone out and about. Luckily it didn’t happen 3-4 hours earlier. As it was, this “sub advisory” event in the Cleveland metro (between the squalls last evening and black ice this morning) was probably more impactful than about half of all winter weather advisory events actually are and was definitely way more impactful than the first LES Warning for Cuyahoga last week, and was more impactful than the LES warning for the inland portion of Ashtabula today.

Ended up with 6.5-7” here. Hopefully we have several more events like this on the way this season.

Your area looks to be doing quite well! It’ll be a mixed bag for this event, those near the lake haven’t gotten much snow but the inland Snowbelt is. I’m at work so won’t have an evening measurement, but I’m guessing my additional snow today and tonight will add at least a few inches for me. Not too bad!

Had a little over 3” this morning. After a few hours of not much happening snow is starting to pick up a bit again.

This is the first notable snow of the season for a lot of the area and it will blow around a good bit...but I agree the hype is likely a bit overblown due to the big dump over the weekend to the northeast. With that said, I think you'll still get several inches of snow by the time it winds down early Friday AM and it'll blow around a good bit. Up the lakeshore where there's a deeper snowpack and where they'll get much more wind this will be a big deal...the upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Erie PA was not done likely, and I was close on (and slightly regret not pulling the trigger) Ashtabula and Crawford PA. Yeah, I could see how snow totals somewhat disappoint (we'll all get snow and it'll blow around, don't get me wrong) given the strong winds, though they do back off a bit Thursday afternoon and evening. The wind direction will be in the 290ish range a lot of Thursday and Thursday night, maybe briefly 300 or so. There are hints by several models of broad convergence in the Cleveland area points east-southeast, which could help focus snow through most of Thursday. That would be good for your area (and probably mine too), so fingers crossed. Truth be told it was somewhat marginal to issue, but once it hit Findlay and they gusted to 56 MPH with 1/4 mile visibility (and cameras on I-75 looked fairly decent), we went with it. Had quite a few reports of thundersnow, though I personally didn't see any. The Snow Squall Warning was the first ever for your area, and was only the second one ever issued by our office.

Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow.

Unfortunately you may be correct here. Will be curious to see the morning snowfall reports. Snow finally pushed south overnight but activity weakened significantly just as quickly as it did that. Some signs now that it's trying to re-flare a bit, but it may also be trying to shift back north. I FINALLY have a forecast shift for this storm today and will have some annoying decisions to make with the Cuyahoga warning. Honestly all the OH warnings may be an annoying predicament by the end of the day shift (will need to try to figure out if it's worth keeping the warnings going for "impact" with some additional snow continuing through at least early tomorrow, or if it's better to downgrade to signal the worst is over if no one is getting more than another 4" tonight into tomorrow).

I think your area has a decent shot tonight through early Tuesday to get some snow, but the big winners will be around Lake County today. Already 13.9” of new snow in North Madison as of 9:15 AM!