i have a chart i use--it works pretty well
204 out--pure fantasy. Weenie stuff
192 hours--it becomes a threat
132 hours-it becomes a legit threat
84-132 hours. the graveyward for storms. Many storms never survive this window
48-84 hours. fantasy Nam Range. Minor shifts start happening with big implications. This is where we go from 29 and snow to 33 and rain but the the storm is still there. Just shifted north or south
48-24 hours. Minor adjustments...can still get screwed if we are on the edge
24-0 hours--you want to see good last minute trends here. Could be the difference between 6 inches and 3 inches
0 hours-GFS and NAM range