Ji

how do we give up on this?

ive never seen a 986 low here with no NW precip shield so frustrating. worst hobby

it means were screwed either way somehow

its east but more north at that time frame lol...maybe it wont dig so far south?

yea def a tick east

dont bother--the ULL is almost in the GOM

progressive model progressive outcome

we need to clean up this brown/black. I bet we get more snow today than this weekend lol

HRRR has 1/2 to 3/4 inch today

remember NAM is only a thunderstorms and thermal model. Disregard everything else lol

Not one model has gotten close to doing this

Pro tip: it’s not

I think the GFS has a better handle on this. It was made for this type of storm.

Euro turned negative too late for all

Mike Thomas: New 0z European kinda held steady with what the 18z Euro was showing. I wouldn’t say it made any significant jog west from the 18z but it’s west of its last 6z and 12z runs. QPF (green shading) is heavily blown in on its eastern flank due to midlevel winds but the surface low itself very similar to the 18z. So I wouldn’t worry about that QPF at the moment. But interesting to see that it held! I’ll monitor the ensembles and get them out shortly when they roll in. We’ll see how the members did.