WxUSAF

Bourbon weather for sure. Makes me want to bake something too.

Blech. Don’t like 12z runs for next week. They don’t phase in any cold air so it’s just a cutoff slop. 12z GEFS looks better though so far.

It’s just like a winter storm. Can see the backside on radar before the first raindrop falls

6z gfs snow for the holiday week. It’s not a crazy evolution either…

12z op runs are all entertaining. Looks like potentially multiple reinforcing shots of cold air from late next weekend into the holiday. Definitely big lake effect and upslope snow potential and I think first flakes possibilities for east of the mountains even? Finally some interesting weather! And euro runs to 360 hours!

“Only” 34 at BWI

^wooowwwweeeee that’s a pretty -NAO. Hope we get that look again in ~2 months.

54 years ago I think

CWG winter forecast is out and it’s shockingly bullish. Near normal temps and median to mean snowfall.

Kinda flatlined at 32-33 after 3am, but touched 30 around 630am.

Nice job. That’s a ton of work. I think you’re in the right ballpark for our area. Hoping we get a 2-3 week period of real winter at some point (probably January as you say) and then maybe a couple flukes outside that if we’re really lucky. But don’t think anyone would be shocked with nearly wall to wall bikini weather.

Euro jumps back out. lol good thing it isn’t snow…

FWIW, WBAL in Baltimore going with 15” seasonal total for BWI. That would certainly be in the “good Niña” category.

Guidance pretty uniform on 0.25-0.75” of rain Thursday night. Euro finally jumped onboard.