KokomoWX

ACUS02 KWNS 201759 SWODY2 SPC AC 201758 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday across the Midwest, especially including portions of Iowa and Missouri into Wisconsin and western/northern Illinois. Tornadoes (a few strong), damaging wind gusts, and large hail are expected. ...Lower/Middle Missouri Valley to the Upper Great Lakes... A notably strong belt of cyclonically curved westerlies (70+ kt 500 mb) will extend from the south-central Great Plains to the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a lead/convectively augmented shortwave trough likely to spread from the central High Plains toward the Lake Superior vicinity late Tuesday night. An elongated surface low over eastern Nebraska Tuesday morning will deepen and lift northeast to northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan by evening, with a surface warm front lifting northward ahead of the surface low, although its effective position will likely be influenced by the early day precipitation. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge east across Iowa/eastern Kansas/northern Missouri from mid-afternoon into the evening. Remnant clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across central/eastern Nebraska, with the possibility of additional storms farther east across southern Iowa/northern Missouri in association with a warm-advection regime. Some key uncertainties persist about the influences of this early day convection, but trends will be for quick air mass recovery given a progressive/highly dynamic pattern. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the increasingly moist warm sector, supporting aggressive diurnal destabilization especially on the southern fringe of lingering convection/cloud cover. Significantly strengthening mid-level winds and a diurnally persistent strong low-level jet will support initial supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, including strong (EF2+) tornado potential. But a mixed/transitional mode is expected overall, as upscale growth occurs given the degree of forcing for ascent, with likely evolution into a well-organized/fast-moving QLCS capable of increasingly widespread/intense damaging winds and a continued QLCS-related tornado risk. This scenario currently appears to be most probable across southern/eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois and nearby far northern Missouri. The severe risk will persist into the Upper Great Lakes region and middle Mississippi Valley overnight. ...Southern Plains... Convective coverage will likely decrease with southward extent as large-scale ascent focuses northward toward the Great Lakes. Nevertheless isolated storms are possible into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by late afternoon/evening, and more conditionally with southwest extent near a dryline from central Oklahoma into central Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Northeast States... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England. This will result in a band of enhanced westerly deep-layer flow from northern New York into Maine. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints into the low 60s F, with strong heating and steepening low-level lapse rates. MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt will support organized cells. Elongated hodographs and favorable vertical shear suggest marginally severe hail will be possible along with locally damaging wind gusts. ..Guyer.. 05/20/2024

The GFS has been brutal with cloud cover.

Reed Timmer is bring the Dominator 3 to chase. Every time he has come to Northern Indiana, we bust hard.

Yesterday was a surprise over performing system. Widespread 4-6" reports. Half of my seasonal snowfall came yesterday. Spring returns quickly with near 60 by mid week.

Today has been an unexpected over performer for Kokomo and south. I really was not expecting anything beyond a heavy dusting on grass with the pavement being wet. We have 2-3" and it was falling pretty good around 10-11:30. My work (school) called for an early dismissal. Sadly project will for me to stay all day or possible even late. The forecast calls for near 60 by mid to late next week.

I attributed some of it to the lack of snow cover. Almost every deep cold event I can remember included a snowpack and not bare ground.

Same. This morning, I managed a wee but of slushy stuff before the rain washed it all away.

Well this figures... Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 309 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024 …Heavy Rainfall Expected over Central Indiana Friday… An active weather pattern this week will bring a second round of heavy rainfall on Friday. Current forecast totals for Friday of around one to two inches across central Indiana with locally higher amounts will bring additional river rises after the responses from early week rains of 1 to 1.5 inches. Area river and stream levels have been very low up to this point due to ongoing drought, but this round of heavy rainfall Friday could bring many river locations to action stage, which will mean faster flows and higher stages than have been seen in quite some time. While widespread flooding is not currently expected, some smaller, faster responding streams and even a few spots along the Wabash could see minor flooding develop depending on rainfall rates and where the heaviest rain falls. Stay weather aware and monitor for any possible flood watches or warnings going into and through the weekend.

I hate this world.

I feel like a permanent resident in this forum. Misses NW or south have been a reoccurring theme.

My money is on the ICON. It has been pretty locked on a very favorable track for MBY.

Temperatures will be marginal at best for some parts of the 1/8-1/10 storm IMBY (north central Indiana and south towards Indy). Both the GFS and ECMWF show any single digit and teens are 8+ days away which are always skeptical given past history of forecasted cold which tempers as we draw closer.

I know the models are showing a lot of potential in the next couple of weeks but I'm already confident I'll be on the side of cold rain and disappointment. I figured I'd get started early with my prediction.

Bah Humbug!

Indy NWS shared some news stories of the doppler radar installation.