moneypitmike

Good write-up from GYX for tomorrow night/sunday KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Saturday night, as a second low develops in the Gulf of Maine late Saturday night and Sunday. The first low brings warm air in aloft, while the coastal low helps brings colder air southward at the surface Sunday morning. Like we have seen several times so far this winter, cold air damming will help to drive temperatures and precip types through the event. With the NBM`s reliably poor performance through these systems, the forecast heavily weighted the available high res guidance, most notably from the Nam 3km. As the HRRR becomes more available through the system, there is likely room for continued refinement of temperatures into the day on Sunday. The set up overall is not as ideal at CAD set up as we have seen from other systems this winter. Saturday`s highs are mild with temps in the low to mid 40s, and precip arrives too early in the evening to allow for any meaningful radiational cooling. This means we`ll have to rely on wet bulbing and cold air advection for the colder temperatures. It`s pretty uncommon to wet bulb below freezing into sleet in freezing rain. For this reason, along much of the coastal plain and southern New Hampshire it`s likely to be in the 32-34 degree range with rain for much of Saturday night. Just north of this area, temps are likely to be at or just below freezing to produce a narrow stripe of sleet and freezing rain. Then north of here through the mountains and foothills, mainly snow is expected. This is the anticipated outcome through Saturday night. Then by daybreak Sunday, temperatures begin to fall as the coastal low deepens and winds shift to northerly. Colder air is expected to slosh southward at all levels of the atmosphere as the low deepens. This transitions precip to mainly rain or snow Sunday morning, with the rain/snow line moving southward. Precip likely runs out before the cold air arrives through the Seacoast as the dry slot moves in, but a period of snow likely ends the event through much of coastal Maine. Further north through the mountains, foothills, and across central Maine, moisture likely continues to blossom through the day as the coastal low deepens. Through these areas, there is an increasing potential for advisory level snowfall through the event.

Really? I'm heading back up tomorrow and Sunday. Hate to have to start from scratch.

The Reservation Golf and Beach Club was pretty busy today.

Sun and blue sky here in PVD

When someone offers you 10,000 to 1 odds on ANYTHING, you take it.

No doubt, bare ground is in store for SNE. Different story for CNE and NNE as they have more snow and it will remain both cooler and snowier. As one would expect. 33 already in PVD vs. 27 at Pit2. Off to rake more leaves.

I bought a lawn rake at Rocky's and spent a few hours of yard work. South Coast January's of yore.

Today was torchelicious.

What a beautiful day it’s been today being outside and raking up leaves at the new pit. Lawn cleanup in January. Can’t beat it.

The lawn in Mattapoisett is looking great. A little frost on it this morning......but it's ready to green up.

We watch. KEY MESSAGE 3 Discussion... Cold trend continues for the forecast winter storm late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure to the NW will aid in feeding cool air at the surface from the NE through Saturday evening. Still a good signal in guidance for CAD to keep surface temps below freezing for much of southern ME and central/north NH. No change in thinking regarding primary low track out of the Great Lakes. Still some differences in guidance re: transfer to coastal low, and this will have impact on QPF and temperature profile aloft for precip type. Continue to think foothills northward remain mainly snow until after midnight, in which sleet then mixes in. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible for points in the foothills and interior, with mostly rain into southern NH and far southern NH. Should cold trend continue, would see wintry mix hold on longer and closer to the ME coast.

8 years ago today in GC.

Driving was tough until PWM. Temps in 20’s until about York. 30 in portsmouth.

Snow/IP at the moment First time I've heard IP hitting the windows this morning, probably all snow before. Looks like we'll just be having some of this for a while unless it warms quite a bit. I'll measure in a bit when I clear off my car. 23.7*

What a torch period we have coming up. Monday is forecast to be the only day with a sub-freezing high here. And even that is just 31*.