weatherwiz

May have to watch out for a few (rather isolated) strong storms across western MA/CT late Thursday afternoon

I enjoy his posts and discussions. Extremely knowledgeable and doesn't try to hype things up...just tells it exactly the way it is.

Almost looks like a similar transition to the pattern we had a few weeks back. That is some ridge being modeled second half of the month...that is a massive area of 600+ dm heights on the GFS.

Much of next week is going to be quite warm with high dewpoints, at least until the front moves through sometime second half of the week. We definitely encounter a period of around average temperatures with low humidity, should that western ridge become as stout as some guidance suggests and we end up with a NW flow. We'll see how long that holds though...may get one more run at big heat/humidity following that period.

Thought this even looked good last Thursday or maybe it was Friday. Front is actually moving more quickly than I thought but when you're ripping a 40+ knot LLJ ahead of a slow moving front with sfc dews >70 and 850 dews into the 60's, PWATS > 2" and a totally saturated profile...great way to great prolific rain rates and over a large area.

AWT

Some knew

This rain is insane. Can’t even take a shower this morning because there’s been thunder and lightning. Have to go to a doctors appointment soon too

The big difference in this versus the previous setups is this rain isn't spread out over a long duration. This will be the type of stuff that produces 2-4" in 1-2 hours versus several-plus hours.

Rainfall rates will be quite impressive tomorrow and the initial round of rain is going to be on the widespread side and then we see what we can develop during the day in terms of convection. You have a stout southerly LLJ into the region with 8850 dewpoints +16 to +17C and PWAT values between 2.20" and 2.40". There is no capping and you have the LFC right about the same height as the LCL. The radar is going to be lit up with rain and continuous development of downpours and embedded thunder throughout the day and this will train across a large area.

I'm shocked there aren't flash flood watches out or flood watches. I bet tonight into tomorrow evening has more reports of flooding than the past few setups combined.

Not a bad looking core. Surprised at least no SPS on it

Thundering here!!!!

I'd actually be shocked if the ICON wasn't

Pretty classic wet microburst look on soundings if we can get anything to materialize