weatherwiz

Should see some lower 60's around tomorrow but yeah could be our last 60's for a bit...probably Christmas like you said

Sat outside for a few hour earlier, just a sunning day. A little breezy at times but manageable.

and a closing off H5 low over Michigan with an occluding system, sfc temps barely in the mid 30s [in the high terrain], with 925 temperatures around -0C is going to produce that?

when?

1000%

This is the 500mb level and is displaying absolute vorticity and the height, in meters, the 500mb level can be found at

Getting a bit excited for Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a marginal risk with the D3 which comes out overnight Monday as long as things hold pat.

Umm how about both

Actually probably not, the Sun will be on the other side of the house and it will get chilly shaded over. Damn you cold

Might watch the Bruins game outside today

The upper evolution is interesting, that's for sure. I just question whether we have enough to yield a widespread synoptic rain. There undoubtedly would be a great deal of upward vertical motion but we may be lacking one key ingredient...and that's moisture to really lift. The greatest combo of lift/moisture would be on the leading edge of the dry slot with the cold front where you have also a narrow wedge of instability. We'll see what happens though, I would not be shocked if we see an entirely different presentation come Sunday.

end of week?

One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow.

A combo of those three would be phenomenal. One negative about COD too which I forgot to mention is it is not mobile friendly...at all. Several years back I believe a husband and wife had developed a mobile version and it was in the beta stages and there was an app...it wasn't bad. But I believe they ended up getting divorced and it died. I wonder how much better cod will become. What helps them is its the College of DuPage which developed it so 1) As long as they continue to receive adequate budget funding 2) If you're a student there and interested in modeling and development, what a freaking phenomenal opportunity to have. Imaging putting on a resume you helped build/develop products? 3) Also being freely offered - they probably aren't as cocky as some of these private vendors who all they care about is generating revenue and are going to create products to suck in the weenies.

If that end of the week evolution pans out like what is modeled, we could see a pretty decent line of convection develop and move across the region. That's a nice narrow ribbon of instability on the GFS in the warm sector.