weatherwiz

Spoke too soon

Not bad out! No mosquitos either…so far. Usually get destroyed with them here

Oneonta is our target area for tomorrow!

Bring on the 75F dews

the post about the accounts of sun breaking out was about the 10/3/79 event...don't want to get that confused with the 7/10/89. But its not uncommon for our EML days to begin with clouds and showers/thunderstorms moving through followed by quick clearing (hell, probably the case too in the midwest). I remember 5/31/98 was like this. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until like 9 or 10 AM (maybe a bit earlier) then off to the races with full sun

I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft.

ahhh right...the Oct 79 was left moving

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity.

Yup a little worried about that. But targeting probably E NY/NW MA/S VT area tomorrow.

AWT

Lets get some sort of show tonight

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again.