weatherwiz

surprised they didn't with the afternoon update.

Maybe gusts 60-65 on parts of Long Island later tomorrow on the 18z NAM.

I'm really curious what the algorithm is (and this could vary by vendor) for the wind gust output products. I would presume its something as simple taking the wind at the top of the models forecast of the mixing height and bringing that to the surface. If that is true, that could explain why the gust products are more underwhelming in this situation. With a subtle inversion present just above the ground, the model mixing heights may be meh (probably barely mixing beyond a several hundred feet) but we'd probably mix deeper than that, particularly a bit inland from the shoreline.

Some convection blossoming too north side of the center. Also, a very nice flux of moisture entraining into this from the Caribbean

GFS doesn't seem as inverted either, especially inland. In fact, even developing a couple hundred J of MUCAPE

I'd also watch for models overall to perhaps miss some of the very early rain potential (which could have implications on overall flooding risk too). Wouldn't be shocked to see some rain and rain bands get in much earlier than indicated and the rainfall rates would be quite heavy. Maybe progressive movement limits totals but something to watch

Not bad stuff mixed in there. Tomorrow is going to be a fun day seeing how this plays out

Yeah looking at some euro soundings for tomorrow morning inland CT there is a shot we can gust 40-50 even inland, especially the eastern half of the state

Yeah there is a bit of an inversion but not particularly strong or very deep. I can still see the coast gusting 50-60 mph, particularly with any rain bands. But given how shallow the inversion is, we have to watch sfc temps very closely. Another 1-2F warmer and the inversion is weakened and may not do much in preventing some of those stronger winds from being tapped into.

Yeah Euro would be some big winds along the CT shore

LLJ looks a bit more robust on the 18z NAM

just wear a goalie mask and wear a baseball glove just in case. Personally though I'd be playing dodge that apple and if I get hit...so be it

More an Oceanstwx question but I believe the biggest reason for that is radar coverage. We have a unique terrain and lots of trees and objects. This is much easier to see visually but when watching convection, Albany's radar gets Litchfield County better while BOX gets Hartford, Tolland, and Windham better, and OKX gets the southern 4 counties better. Though I will say...I think OKX actually does better for at least the southern half of Hartford county but with BOX now having a 0.3° slice, it may be much better with Hartford county. There are still definitely some gaps though in a portion of Litchfield/Fairfield/Hartford county that all 3 kind of don't sample well

Yeah SSTs really drop off with northward extent and models don't seem to hang this over the Gulf Stream very long so I am shocked at how long guidance is maintaining this as a warm core system. Like Scott said this morning though, it terms of sensible weather this has really has very little impact on the sensible weather side of things. Maybe one thing it influences is the overall strength of the LLJ. If you're able to maintain a 70-75 knot LLJ and push that to the coast...would be some problems

There seems to be a trend to keep this warm core much longer and a slower occlusion. Very curious what the Euro is like