weatherwiz

Activity will be more on the widespread side into western CT...probably up to the CT River. Activity begins isolated but should quickly organize into short lines and clusters.

Sounds like the Earthquake caused an avalanche and the snow/ice dumped into a river and caused a major blockage, allowing the water to build up and unfortunately cause the flooding. Heartbreaking. I can't imagine being in a situation like that, trying to run with essentially nowhere to go and not a chance to outrun it.

The front comes through on Friday, anything tomorrow would be pre-frontal trough related. Hudson Valley to the CT River will see scattered storms develop during the afternoon, perhaps evolving into multiple lines but there won't be much in the way of west-to-east progression, will be more southwest-to-northeast so probably will see some flash flooding where storms train...probably within the CT River Valley and Naugatuck Valley (should start mentioning them too for future reference because of the rate they flood in these setups).

Friday could be a sneaky severe weather risk for eastern sections

In the end one of two scenarios will probably occur 1) MCS activity is confined to extreme northern VT/NH and ME 2) MCS activity dives to our southwest

These things are extremely unpredictable this far out, but there is some MCS potential on Tuesday...perhaps multiple MCS rounds

HRRR gone wild tomorrow

ha, didn't think it would happen with the 8:00 update lol

Brutal

The NHC will be reducing the probs on that wave in over the next day, just like we saw last week

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above.

I'll never forget turning on TWC on 7/15/95 and like 6 AM and them talking about the line moving across the region. Fun times

In addition to some locally strong-to-severe weather potential both Thursday and Friday, there should be some risk for flash flooding as well

yup, the 90's seem to be a thing of the past

One thing to watch moving through the first week of September is the increasing likelihood for ridging to be centered more towards or just off the Southeast coast. For much of the last several weeks (At least) we've seen the ridging centered more Texas/New Mexico. This will open the room for widespread 80's and 90's in the typical hot spots and we probably become active with convective potential too given a westerly flow developing aloft.