weatherwiz

Have to head to the store later and grab a few things...definitely switching from shorts to jeans. going to suck

Yeah but nothing near the widespread 4-6/5-7" that was floating around on some of the guidance. And the overall flooding risk seems relatively low...I don't think the moderate was necessarily needed by the WPC. This was a long drawn out steady rain (and kind of in chunks). Will be worse off to our south. Definitely a much needed rain for sure but overall this was below a much more concerning flooding risk

Noah almost cancelled his plans in Heaven to come down and build an arc when he saw all these crazy ensembles and high extreme forecasts index. Good thing he decided not too

The NAM does go ray with the LLJ too but still, if you want to see excessive rainfall amounts with a high flood concern, you're going to want to see a situation where the rain band is essentially stationary. This isn't exactly hauling but its not really crawling through either.

This evolution doesn't scream flood to me outside of any typical spots that flood even when someone leaves their garden hose on too long. I want to see an expansive area of 35-40+ dbz which is almost not moving and with a continuous fetch of moisture and a continued blossoming of the precip shield with intense echoes so the rain shield is essentially stationary.

I think its safe to say, that can be tossed and tossed very far

Goes very wild with the llvl jet

We can only hope

IDK This really doesn't seem all that impressive nor does it look like it is going to evolve to be so. Just a good ole fashion steady, soaking rain. Highest totals probably end up coastal CT/Long Island. Congrats to the Fish in the Sound

Good point. Towards the end of last summer when I would take the cover off before using it I would have bees flying out from it

Looking like the max totals will def be towards the coast but probably nothing obscene. Probably some totals up around 4-5"...maybe someone gets 6"

Damn it, I forgot to cover the grill before bed last night after making burgers

I think I saw vortex95 mention this but the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge of those storms was about as textbook as you'll see for these parts, hell that would even be impressive anywhere else. Anytime you see a super strong wind signature like that I guess there is the risk for a brief spinup but I don't think there was anything really pointing towards a tornado or rotation. Velocity signatures on all radar sites was pretty evident with straight-line wind signatures and if you look at the environment, there really wasn't anything supportive for tornado formation. Just a textbook classic setup for straightline winds and widespread given the development of a cold pool.

The warm front may not even get into SNE at all. Very possible it sets up to where coastal CT across coastal RI and far SE MA get the highest totals (anything greater than 3-4").

idk...I would you would want to see more convective processes involved when talking about potential for these widespread excessive totals some of the short-term models are indicating. I can see 1-3" widespread and then probably a narrow zone where you get maybe 4-5" but that may be more isolated versus widespread.