weatherwiz

Maybe it’s acorns coming down

Didn’t even get a breeze here before the torrential rain. Some bright flashes though and long rumbles. We inversion

Woah just got a flash of lightning and thunder out of nowhere. Just before I was going to start video

I don’t understand the 60 mile wide warnings in these. All of this stuff besides the Litchfield stuff looks terrible. Even that may not be what it looks

North part of Sherman must be getting smoked

That warning here is a little puzzling to me. Velocities haven’t looked great (though wind would be right on the leading edge) but haven’t even seen any reports of wind damage associated with it moving into western MA

It may tend to weaken, unless instability shoots up a bit out ahead of it but it’s in an area of higher MLCAPE now

Kent/New Milford going to get the best goods

No Chase but will be outside hoping for some goods

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South

Throw in the state of the PDO into the mix too. I haven't followed too closely the progression of the PDO since spring/summer but it seems to me like the -PDO has re-established itself to some degree...can't really strong Nino's with this degree of PDO regime.

That can't be ruled out, though probably rather localized. These setups are always extremely trickly...you have to respect the dynamics and you don't need a ton of CAPE but you need enough to combat the shear, otherwise the updrafts just topple over and it prevents vertical growth (big reason why these end up as low-topped events). One big discriminator in these events producing damaging wind gusts on a larger scale versus rather isolated is steep low-level lapse rates which we'll lack today.

Not sure we really get much, if any sun today. Perhaps some local breaks but I don't think it will be anything meaningful in terms of destabilization. The destabilization of the atmosphere today is largely going to be due to the advection of increased moisture in the lower-levels and at the surface. The SPC noted weak mid-level lapse rates as a hindrance of instability because of some observed soundings, but not so sure I totally agree with that. Mid-level lapse rates may actually steepen some as the day progresses and that would help provide a bit of a boost. Better heating and cloud breaks will be just off to our southwest...though you in SW CT could get onto the northeast edge of cloud breaks, so perhaps a bit of an instability gradient will become established. Regardless we should see a line of heavy downpours with some localized embedded thunder/lighting and a quick burst of strong wind gusts.

Anyways, could be a decent line that at least moves across western sections later. Curious as to how much lightning can be generated as well. One thing to watch as well is we'll see a sharp spike in dewpoints just out ahead of the line, so while instability numbers won't be eye popping we'll see rapid destabilization out ahead of the line...something that can enhance upward acceleration of parcels.

what the hell is all of this crap about some monster coastal storm next week lol.