weatherwiz

Certainly may be a brief window for something to become a bit organized before shear increases some

Understanding smokes impact on convective potential is extremely complicated. If you're talking about convective potential which is extremely dependent on instability, then smoke is going to have a large negative impact on convective potential because its going to inhibit the convective temperature from being reached and of course lead to a reduction in instability. If you have a setup though in which forcing and dynamics are strong and you don't have to rely on large CAPE, smoke is probably not going to inhibit convection from developing (but of course may negatively impact strength). In the case of what happened across western Maine the other day, you already had capping in place from a stout EML so the dense smoke further enhanced capping and of course prevented convective temperature from being reached. Forcing for any afternoon storm development was always weak, which also increased tornado potential. So adding smoke into things just add another level of complexity but the impact of smoke on potential is going to vary based on the mechanisms involved in convective development.

may fire one up after 12z

Nastiness moving through tomorrow night. Probably some violence western areas

I am so ready to rip a squall line through Saturday night

Pretty crazy how this happens. There is research too about damage paths in the South contributing to local enhancement of thunderstorm activity because of the temperature gradient which becomes established between the vegetation and the damage path. I think even some research with burn scars in the West with rain/storms

but is that a snap shot from a general pattern or is that a pattern post front? If the formal, then yeah I would tend to agree.

I think we're back in action with goes 19

that looks probably isn't terrible for severe wx potential...would probably mean strong fronts moving through with good shear...probably not good for EML potential

No EMLs but outside of Saturday night, Tuesday looks decent too for storms. Good shortwave and shear...just have to see how timing works out and what instability is like

Saturday evening/night looking quite interesting. Good shortwave, strong height falls, good shear, increasing instability

Maybe it got hit by an asteroid or an alien spaceship

yeah its blue sky here. Kind of shocked, but I guess the next plume arrives sometime today

May see a decent line of storms move through Saturday evening...probably some decent wind potential. maybe even a TOR

depends on the hot dog