weatherwiz

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season.

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters.

This Gulf system is absolutely crap

Beautiful day for some baseball, although a tad windy

Yesterday didn’t really bust. The greatest threat for severe weather was off to the West, in which there were a quite a few reports, including at least one tornado. Threat was always lower here and worth watching.

yup multiple warnings.

yes MCD was issued which includes western CT mentioning uncertainty in whether downstream watch will be issued

Expectations should always be low in our setups really. At least for me, part of the fun in all this is the "unknown". 99.999999% of the time (or some number that's essentially 100% without being 100%) severe weather here is not going to be widespread or even concentrated, its just going to be some reports scattered about and localized. But back to the fun...its the tracking and monitoring to see even if one storm produces...and if that one storm does produce, there is someone out there who was directly impacted. These setups are just so intriguing in that regard because the kinematics support the potential and generally instability is usually just enough to warrant some concern, but ultimately low enough to where maybe only a few storms will ever become mature enough to utilize the environment.

Got the MCD for western areas...only an hour after I suspected maybe I meant 5:00 CT

I would wager by 5:00 we probably see an MCD for western areas.

That stuff west of BGM starting to look pretty good with cooling cloud tops. Looks like it just behind the warm front too. Probably up to the CT River probably still in game for svr potential given it looks like the warm front should get there. Want to see dews get to around 72-73...not sure how far northeast those will make it though

Hoping to go after that stuff moving past BGM now. Hopefully it will remain on a trajectory or pass close enough to BDL.

when I was outside with the dog this morning I was a bit shocked how it was outside...smoke was pretty evident. Thought at first it was maybe some fog but the smell of smoke was clear as day.

just edited...meant to say 3km is a bit off with how things are evolving. HRRR pretty good to get everyone with some amount of rain for rd 2. Severe potential remains complex. Might just have to watch where the instability gradient is. But even that will be tough to pinpoint because the warm front is moving.

The HRRR is wayyyyy off with how things are evolving EDIT: meant to say 3km