weatherwiz

Folks complain when there is no weather and complain when there is weather to talk about lol. It's almost as if every single weather phenomenon has to be extreme or bust. Everything is meh, meh, meh unless there are 20 tornadoes, trees get blown down all over, snow accumulations exceed 2 feet, winds gust above 60, or half the region is under water.

Pretty stout LLJ.

I think Oct. 6 unless its been pushed back again.

Looks like Hawaii will get hit AGAIN. Rainfall forecast of 15-30"+ across the Big Island...yikes

The NAM very well may go out on a very sad demise

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too

a few models

This could be another great test for AI guidance. However, didn't we have some similar scenarios last winter (maybe not truly anomalous as this setup is given time of year) but where we saw AI guidance holding steady and then collapsed towards traditional guidance inside of like 48-60 hr?

Only a couple of weeks until the NAM is toast (unless that gets pushed again). I don't know why I thought of this but it's kind of funny, just thinking of how many models have been introduced and retired since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance)

That was a sounding from New Haven he posted

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines

Oh my lawdy

I think there is also some potential this could become a deeper storm than what is being advertised now, especially given it starts warm core and how it may take its time transitioning to more of a cold core. Another factor in this too is how the upper-level wind field evolves. At least on the Euro, look at how the structure of the ULJ evolves...that is very favorable for enhanced diffluence aloft which would further factor into the strengthening of the storm and wind fields. Lots of interesting processes will be undergoing with this thing. Sexy science at work

Yeah we can't ignore the rainfall aspect of this. This is a setup in which models (even the more aggressive models) could underplay rainfall totals. As impressive as the Euro is with rainfall totals, it could still be underdone (taking verbatim). That is a continuous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic and the system takes its sweet time occluding. There could be a swath of some substantial rainfall totals.