weatherwiz

I don't think I could make it to Thanksgiving but seems like I could go for a while. Probably could get by with shorts and a light long-sleeved shirt.

Curious to see how long I can go wearing shorts. It was chilly outside last evening with shorts and short-sleeve shirt but at least there were no mosquitos!

You know what's funny... In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

Thank you. Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios: 1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo) 2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

That is an awfully pathetic look. Is there a global shot for that? I wonder if much of the Arctic cold will end up being displaced on the other side of the hemisphere. Going to take some well-timed airmasses here to really have a good chance to cash in

Should be a fairly widespread heavy rain tomorrow. Increasing LLJ across the region with a strong surge of higher theta-e air advecting in. Pretty well defined 700 warm front too moving across the region

Looks like the ridge is finding a new home just in time for winter

I mean all you have to do is look at previous strong EL Nino episodes...they all (I'd presume) had very low ACE seasons. The EL Nino's of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 only had seasonal numbers in the single digits. 2015-2016 I think was a bit higher but still below the climatological average

What a night. Endless alcohol not cool not hot

Today is spectacular. Headed to my nieces for a BBQ after work...going to be lovely outside. Gotta soak up these days while we have them. Soon enough they will become few and far between until they gone until next year

it is quite cool if bit in the sun. Welcome to Fall y’all

Sun out here and it feels good in the sun but quite cool if not in the sun. We'll see how long the sun last though before clouds start developing

Sometimes forecasting is hard and a PITA. Sometimes its easy. in the case of this weekend, all you had to do was see the giant cold pool drifting southeast across the region

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall