weatherwiz

Throw in the state of the PDO into the mix too. I haven't followed too closely the progression of the PDO since spring/summer but it seems to me like the -PDO has re-established itself to some degree...can't really strong Nino's with this degree of PDO regime.

That can't be ruled out, though probably rather localized. These setups are always extremely trickly...you have to respect the dynamics and you don't need a ton of CAPE but you need enough to combat the shear, otherwise the updrafts just topple over and it prevents vertical growth (big reason why these end up as low-topped events). One big discriminator in these events producing damaging wind gusts on a larger scale versus rather isolated is steep low-level lapse rates which we'll lack today.

Not sure we really get much, if any sun today. Perhaps some local breaks but I don't think it will be anything meaningful in terms of destabilization. The destabilization of the atmosphere today is largely going to be due to the advection of increased moisture in the lower-levels and at the surface. The SPC noted weak mid-level lapse rates as a hindrance of instability because of some observed soundings, but not so sure I totally agree with that. Mid-level lapse rates may actually steepen some as the day progresses and that would help provide a bit of a boost. Better heating and cloud breaks will be just off to our southwest...though you in SW CT could get onto the northeast edge of cloud breaks, so perhaps a bit of an instability gradient will become established. Regardless we should see a line of heavy downpours with some localized embedded thunder/lighting and a quick burst of strong wind gusts.

Anyways, could be a decent line that at least moves across western sections later. Curious as to how much lightning can be generated as well. One thing to watch as well is we'll see a sharp spike in dewpoints just out ahead of the line, so while instability numbers won't be eye popping we'll see rapid destabilization out ahead of the line...something that can enhance upward acceleration of parcels.

what the hell is all of this crap about some monster coastal storm next week lol.

You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.

100% agreed.

There as actually a presentation similar to this at the Tri-State Weather conference this past Saturday.

Maybe a SYR special today? Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s.

You know you've entered Fall (or Spring) when MAV/MET differ by 7-8-9°F or more on forecast high temps (particularly when a warmer than average llvl airmass is in place).

That is a very robust shortwave digging into the region with some healthy moisture in place and rather steep lapse rates. Wasn't looking at LES in this case...just more elevated/terrain enhancement.

Would not be surprised to see multiple inches of accumulating snow for ski areas on Saturday and maybe even grassy accumulation accumulations lower elevations of NNE. Wonder if the Tug hill could pull off several-plus inches

Ughhhhh I knew this was bound to happen. They’re just getting bigger and deadlier here. Adapting to our climate and just relocating from other areas. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/venomous-spider-species-documented-in-connecticut-for-the-first-time/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_WTNH_News_8&fbclid=IwZnRzaAUzh-hleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBwZG9mBWZkaWQWUP0fgIBV4YT5gAujHlk__9yP03ilPXNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR46RL7csvZP_EevojJ70Jc8_yzDkguN2GZP_lfF_0i9ITCVH690hW3pJK0g_w_aem_afEitbdedFZMbV3_6lCdUA