weatherwiz

I'm not going to stand at the window for 12 hours and hold my phone up

I never made it out I'll just have to use a tape measurer but there is noting like holding the nice thick wood of a yard stick and sticking it into the snow

Got my camcorder all setup. Going to have it rolling all day doing a time lapse of the yard

Looking around at overnight guidance I would say during the meat of the snow the ratios are probably around 14:1 to 17:1 average and outside of the meat of the snow they will be closer to 10:1.

Holy freaking hell people have gone out of control with the Kuchera maps.

put the TV in front of the window

Very heavy snow for early-to-mid afternoon, potentially approaching 1.5-2 inches per hour during the peak which could persist for several hours. Moderate snow continuing into the evening before tapering off. Going to be at least a good foot for all (except maybe shoreline where it could be more 9-10")

Forgot about the GFS Here's 12z GFS bufkit for BDL. Even a bit more intense than the NAM.

earlier this decade

The Winter lecture my professor just posted for winter weather forecast actually has a slide on Kuchera method. One of the bullet points Does not account for vertical velocity, depth of DGZ, saturation of DGZ, dry layers near surface, time of year, or stability Often overpredicts snowfall in in very cold airmasses and in marginal/mixing situations

That's why I am not a fan of the snow maps, all they do is just take forecast QPF and multiply that by a snow ratio. There is no factoring in of lift, snow growth, RH of the DGZ and RH with respect to ice crystals in the DGZ. What separates the Kuchera from 10:1 (besides the obvious being 10:1 maps are constant) is it factors in the average temperature of the llvls to compute a snow ratio. The Kuchera method I also believe was designed to be a tool for snowfall depth. There are a few moduels on MetEd which go into some depth on these maps. When it comes to verifying Kuchera versus what occurred, the results were/are not particularly great.

I don't think that is true. The only method which factors in lift and omega is the cobb technique. What the Kuchera (and 10:1) do when it comes to max banding is highlight where the greatest QPF is forecast (by the model) and where that coincides with what the model believes will be all snow

12z NAM bufkit BDL....LG....LFG. Look at that thump. And we get consistently good lift through the DGZ for the duration

100% And speaking of that, the snow side of things is overperforming in parts of the South, particularly Arkansas at least

This is going to be amazing. I don't want to use the T word but can it happen?