weatherwiz

it is quite cool if bit in the sun. Welcome to Fall y’all

Sun out here and it feels good in the sun but quite cool if not in the sun. We'll see how long the sun last though before clouds start developing

Sometimes forecasting is hard and a PITA. Sometimes its easy. in the case of this weekend, all you had to do was see the giant cold pool drifting southeast across the region

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

It will happen well before 2:00 tomorrow

For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting.

Taker told Mick he was out of his mind when Mick told him to do it. Taker refused at first but Mick was insistent

In terms of the statement, "looking at normal temp 15 days out is more accurate" around 15 days out or so climatology is going to have more "skill" versus a forecast model. Something I learned recently but the reason why say the GFS goes out to 15 days is because that is around the period when climatology holds better skill than forecast models.

This area (well backyard at least) absolutely blows for mosquitos. I am not sure why because there isn't any areas of water around. But once it starts getting dark out it seems they magically come out of nowhere. It really sucks because I like to sit outside during the evening but can't, they're too ruthless. Bug spray doesn't evening work...hell I am convinced those suckers have evolved to the point that it doesn't even bother them.

Was outside for 2 seconds and started getting destroyed by mosquitos

It's been a while since we had one and the last few attempts didn't work out. I started the dates around mid-October since early October probably is too short notice (and selfishly I'll be away the first weekend of October and presenting at TriState Weather Conference the following week). I am hoping with some advanced lead time we can get a good gathering. I know November/December will also be difficult with holidays and I didn't put Halloween as an option as those with kids will probably be out getting candy.

I've read a bit on that event. That was some serious stuff in terms of global impact, particularly to the fishing industry and ocean life.

Well said. And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.

The size of the +28C to +29C water temperatures within the Tropical Pacific is ridiculous. Even +20C off Mexico and into the Baja.

Adding on to my reply to Scott in your winter thread about the ridiculous graphic from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense. He is favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south. I don't think that is totally true but I do know alot of generic stuff out there on EL Nino mentions this. I think there seems to be confusion out there on the different branches of the jet stream. The cooler/wetter patterns which plague the southern states during EL Nino I think is related a a stronger jet (which we all know) but its a stronger sub-tropical jet stream which can have the tendency to be displaced a bit further NORTH and its the cooler/more active track which plays a bigger role in the temperature anomalies. But its the stronger jet which is more critical versus the displacement. The polar jet also tends to be displaced further north, hence the lack of Arctic cold outbreaks penetrating south.