weatherwiz

Nice downburst looks line over Hudson, NY

So sick of these stupid YouTube clowns with their stupid thumbnails of "get ready". Like to smack them across their stupid looking faces with their stupid microphones

QPF can't be taken at face value during the warm season (unless you're dealing with a clear-cut and well-defined synoptic lift event). When you're dealing with convection, guidance (especially less coarse models) are going to whip up erroneous QPF amounts over a widespread area when the reality is you're looking at convective precip which is going to be more hit and miss.

Today is COC

I would have to think something pops too. At least in the case of tomorrow, we have pretty decent height falls into the evening and overnight and lapse rates are pretty respectable for these parts. Shear is pretty solid too, although llvl flow being more westerly may limit convergence? Instability will be there. This is hitting a nice area for wind potential tomorrow and this corridor lines up well with where the best ingredients overlap

Got the slight to nudge east into SNE a bit...probably will see another nudge tonight. Maybe even a 30% area added up to the CT/MA border tomorrow morning

Have to see exactly where the boundary ends up but the RRFS with some nasty storms rolling through later Saturday afternoon. I strongly recommend securing the grill unless you want it going airborne and it starts raining burgers and hot dogs all over.

that is wild for JFK

Tomorrow night could be really fun, could even be more fun if that EML wasn't shunting to our southwest

A lot of evaporation going on too with the rain that moved through. When I went outside with the dog earlier it was like a sauna with the steam rising.

Should be another loud night for some tomorrow night

Big lightning spike to my west!!

Falling apart down this way, figures.

Nice outflow on radar

Come to daddy