weatherwiz

For sure the upcoming weekend will be on the cool side behind the system but the week should be right around average and Thursday quite a bit above. For BDL, I wouldn't be shocked if they hit 80-81 on Wednesday

Another tally mark under the "AWT" category

Great, now there is a whole lot of media hype about the "cold blob" of water south of Greenland. Isn't that this the manifestation of the AMO heading towards the negative phase?

I am going to guess the NAM is a bit overdone with the mid-level lapse rates which could put a bit of a damper on the potential in terms of higher-end potential stuff, but that would still probably be a tornado outbreak across PA/southern NY into NJ.

Heavy violence across PA on Thursday via the 6z NAM

Looks like some training supercells in Maine

We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

It's certainly intriguing for sure, especially given the shear forecast. If we aren't going to get steep mlvl lapse rates then hopefully we can get dewpoints into the lower 70's and at least increase potential to push MLCAPE values ~2000 J. Too early to really worry about CAPE potential but if we can muster 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE in this environment, there would be some nasty storms for sure.

best chance of severe yes. But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low.

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.

It’s hard to get overly excited for organized severe weather or a higher end severe potential without any signals of an EML. But if we can get dews into the 70’s with strong shear and height falls we can get swaths of wind damage

The timing Sunday looks awfully late...not good. Was a bit shocked to see the risk for for east with the D3. Was kind of hoping maybe we would start seeing some faster timing but 0z NAM is even slower

Actually it worked out well! Wasn't really expecting anything wild or out of the ordinary. Part of the fun on this is picking a location and then adjusting as needed. Because of the road network here and limited visibility with trees and hills, our preference is to always be at a spot well ahead of the storms, particularly for shelf cloud views. I tend to prefer not chasing the storms as they're ongoing (unless its being out ahead of them) because I don't want to risk encountering a flooded road or something like a tree falling if driving along roads which are heavily forested. I'd say today worked out as could have expected. Big winds or even hail is just an added bonus.