weatherwiz

Yeah sure is. This could potentially be a high risk scenario depending on how the details evolve. Could have significant tornado potential depending on storm mode and in fact, there could be two rounds of tornadic supercells; one in the morning then again later in the day. Tornado potential may be a bit lower with round 2, however, if linear mode dominates in which we'd probably see a significant wind event.

Save 80/65 for Christmas. bring on 99/75

For sure the upcoming weekend will be on the cool side behind the system but the week should be right around average and Thursday quite a bit above. For BDL, I wouldn't be shocked if they hit 80-81 on Wednesday

Another tally mark under the "AWT" category

Great, now there is a whole lot of media hype about the "cold blob" of water south of Greenland. Isn't that this the manifestation of the AMO heading towards the negative phase?

I am going to guess the NAM is a bit overdone with the mid-level lapse rates which could put a bit of a damper on the potential in terms of higher-end potential stuff, but that would still probably be a tornado outbreak across PA/southern NY into NJ.

Heavy violence across PA on Thursday via the 6z NAM

Looks like some training supercells in Maine

We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

It's certainly intriguing for sure, especially given the shear forecast. If we aren't going to get steep mlvl lapse rates then hopefully we can get dewpoints into the lower 70's and at least increase potential to push MLCAPE values ~2000 J. Too early to really worry about CAPE potential but if we can muster 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE in this environment, there would be some nasty storms for sure.

best chance of severe yes. But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low.

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.

It’s hard to get overly excited for organized severe weather or a higher end severe potential without any signals of an EML. But if we can get dews into the 70’s with strong shear and height falls we can get swaths of wind damage