weatherwiz

Agreed with that. But to be clear (though this may not matter) I was referring to H5 in general (across CONUS) - not just the specific feature. But I get what you're saying.

This is where you have to wonder whether the Euro's parameterization scheme just remains far superior to the GFS. I mean compare H5 of the Euro to the GFS from the 0z run at initialization. Now one could argue it's "noise" or subtle differences but IMO those differences for an initialization are rather large. I would also re-suggest the argument of the lack of upper-air observations within the region the s/w is traversing but the counter-argument to that would be - why is that not impacting the Euro...perhaps an answer to that would be...the euro is just more superior with initializing processes haha. Anyways, this post comes across as Euro is right and GFS is wrong - obviously we don't know that but lets say the Euro ends up scoring the scoop on this and blows the GFS away...may as well just put the GFS away.

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core

yeah definitely interested to see what recon finds with this

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

what a beast

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby

that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area

What's interesting on the EPS is you see the two clustered areas that you mention, however, then there is a convergence of the two camps backing in west.

IDK...Euro has that look of backing in. Maybe it ends up east of previous runs but that H5 look through 120-126 seems to scream getting tugged in

Yup and at this point strength is not necessarily important. In fact, if one is looking for prolonged impacts you'd probably not want this getting as deep as it can get because that would probably result in a quicker occlusion. But because of the potential anomalous track of this system, the angle in which this may bank in is going to be more of a player versus strength.

Polo looks about ripe for IR

GEFS east but still a ton of spread and some interesting members. The GFS does have an east or OTS bias with coastal's though not sure if really only applies with winter and dealing with Arctic airmasses. If 12z euro is similar to at least yesterday's runs this is going to be a hell of a battle between the suites. One of them is going to get totally schooled

Yeah ICON is pretty wild. That's an impressive warm core system and it takes forever to occlude

Probably would be looking at some serious coastal flooding across eastern MA and particularly the Cape and along the north facing shore of Long Island