weatherwiz

Chased this stuff down to near Trumbull. Decent winds along with some very heavy rain and some lightning. Saw a few good CGs and the edge of the shelf driving along Rt 8 towards Waterbury. Back to Springfield soon!

Stopped at BDL to assess. Going to head towards Torrington

I think there will be some storms overnight, perhaps some sort of cluster moving through. Not really liking how unenthused CAMs really are with today or even tomorrow. Lack of forcing is a big killer but I would not be shocked if we can get at least widely isolated stuff later this afternoon and if lucky, a small cluster moving through overnight.

OMG it hasn't rained for 3 hours....must be a drought!!!!!!!!!!!

Phil will be going crazy today

May not have an EML but potential for steeper than usual lapse rates. This could be a significant wind event though if the strongest shear wasn’t lagging. With this said, given large CAPE and large dew point depression, there may be a nice swath of wind damage but with rapid weakening as the line enters western areas

AWT

Sucks the strongest shear lags behind the front Friday. but with large CAPE/a bit of an EML we could still pull off some big storms, its just they would be more pulse type and may not be organized

Was waiting for your comment on this! Its intriguing for sure.

ahhh yes you're right. Comes out of convection which evolves in the upper-Midwest. Certainly can work but...that is definitely more of a long shot,

That’s a good thought. I didn’t think of that. It seems though the question is the trajectory of that shortwave diving southeast out of Canada and where the front becomes positioned. I am really intrigued by this but I hate how it’s just really the NAM that is showing a robust EML. The euro may be as well but I only have weather models so limited on euro products.

Violence Thursday on the 18z NAM.

Well I guess its cooler if you're going to compare 86 versus 93 lol.

I didn't look at the AI's. I have not been particularly impressed with them lately. That seems extremely overstated to me

Doesn't really seem like a cool(er) look to me, outside of perhaps any post fropa but we probably go right back to above average