weatherwiz

Looks like this stuff was fueled by a pretty tight theta-e gradient and on the edge of some pretty decent MUCAPE. MUCAPE values of 2000 J surging north through SNE. That's not too bad...I don't recall guidance having MUCAPE that high

In Windsor and getting a hefty downpour currently

I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo.

Not so sure about that Some of the maps being posted around makes it seem like Noah needs to make another appearance from heaven Great to be getting some of these setups lately. Giving people much needed rain without the concern for significant flooding issues. I know there was the flooding within SW CT last week but these events are perfect to tackle the deficit without cause for major concern

There is still a quite a bit of uncertainty in how the whole thing evolves for sure. I mean if you look at the latest NAM's, there is actually some potential we get enough drying and maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow (especially in CT) that we could pop isolated thunderstorms with potential for localized damaging wind gust or even a brief tornado. I was thinking the greatest max would be west of here...Hudson into NJ but its possible you may see the max zone be something like northeast CT into northeast MA and southern NH and then a few local maxes elsewhere.

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground

If I was an observer at the airport and a tornado was headed towards the tower I'd stay until the very end and the last thing I would do is issue a SPECI and in the remarks say, "About to Die"

we'll get a widespread 3-4" of rain and still see the drought monitor go up a level next update

the flood watches have flown

Hoping there are no injuries or fatalities. That looks awful EDIT: well no fatalities, I see injuries reported

ATW gusted to 45 knots. No report of funnel or TOR in the METAR but looks like it may have formed extremely close to the airport or passed by very close

yikes

Next week is going to be great when we pump in 70+ dews

ahh yeah I didn't check the 3km yet. Something like that is exactly what I am trying to envision happening. You can see too how that really hammers the lower Hudson down to around Newark...could be some serious flooding down that way.

Someone for sure, but how widespread of an area? That's what I'm a bit iffy on. Could be the Berks that get smoked in this.