weatherwiz

I'd be curious if something similar has happened before...I would think it has (just not very common). This would be a good question for @OceanStWx I actually kind of like this and this falls in line with the new modifications to the SPC outlooks. As we become more knowledgeable in the area of severe weather and with advancements in technology and modelling I think it's a great idea to be able to try and narrow down areas of "greatest" potential within an overall larger area. I agree it can be confusing to emergency management and the public but this is where educating and communicating to emergency management and the public becomes critical.

I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch

Yup...you're not getting anything going in that. When those two waves the NHC flagged last week crapped the bed that was a tell tale sign of where things stand. Environmental conditions aren't going to be getting any better either. Now folks may look at that and say we gotta watch the Gulf and northern Caribbean for home brew, but it should be noted the shear is only weak there because of the large scale ridging. Once that breaks down and we get troughs and fronts digging into the southern states that will change.

nice looking supercell with a TDS down in Maryland

These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift

Looks like Hawaii dodging a bullet with Two-C

Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR

The wind shear across the MDR is pretty nuts and probably isn't decreasing anytime soon. Would probably need to see some wave survive to around Cuba or Puerto Rico before it even has the chance of becoming organized.

Really starting to think alot of these GFS "canes" are a mere factor of a heavy climatological skew so the GFS just wants to pump out hurricanes.

The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland.

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening.

yeah like a 6" depth

That is quite the model battle tomorrow

Absolutely

Its medium-sized I'd say...maybe even just a bit below