OceanStWx

Unfortunately our primary driver of temps was not advection but latent cooling. Always a risky proposition. Forcing got weaker, precip intensity is lower, less metling/cooling at the surface.

That's the real limiting factor here. It's moving so fast that you only have a few hours to accumulate. Hard to pull off much more than a sneaky advisory when that happens.

It's definitely possible. These kinds of lateral quasi-stationary bands can surprise just because the forcing will be narrow but persistent.

It's a good example of the absolutely insane way the computer tries to put our forecast to text (remember I can't control what the P&C says beyond drawing the forecast). You're forecast is roughly 1.4 inches, so it reads that as 1-3 inches even though 3 inches is unlikely. It also says rain and snow before 3 am, when the predominate weather during that period is slight chance of rain and definite snow. Sure rain and snow is technically correct, but one of those precip types is more likely than the other.

I've embraced it so hard that we're doing a week and a half in Florida this February. Only need to survive ~ 5 weeks of winter now.

We'll forever be trying to kick the 2015 football.

I'll gladly pull the snow stake out with the Christmas lights in a couple weeks.

I mean it may be a sad look to a once promising pattern, but we do this same song and dance every season. We've "wasted" December, when a place like ORH only averages about 10" through this date and has 7.5" on the season. The season could still end up just fine.

Can't have too much life left. NBM MOS will replace it and the GFS MOS sooner rather than later.

There's something to be said for the ECMWF style of modeling. They have one, very good model and then they just adjust it from there to suit their needs. You get 4x daily deterministic, you get an ensemble, you get an extended run. They aren't wasting resources running a GFS, NAM, nested NAM, HRRR, SREF, CFS, etc. Now the trick is creating a very good model to start with.

Most of the ensemble members are still pretty meh, but the snowiest ones are definitely the more amplified patterns.

That was my thought when the power went out last night. I had just texted the NAM LLJ to Scooter and Ryan and the neighborhood went total blackout.

Let's go Wiz