yoda

I'll take my 1-2" and call it a day from the 18z GFS

Seems the "death band" is a bit earlier... now more around 09z

Appalachians, precipitation will struggle to make progress to the east of the Allegheny Front for several hours. As the wave amplifies and approaches from the west, most models show a jet steak developing downstream, with forcing for ascent increasing within the equatorward entrance of the jet streak. Most solutions show the jet entrance region lining up right along I-95. Ascent within the jet entrance region may cause precipitation to jump eastward and develop in-situ along the I-95 corridor, largely skipping locations between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge. Precipitation within the jet entrance region to the east of the Blue Ridge is expected to blossom during the mid-late evening hours, and then slowly drift southeastward through the remainder of the night. The precipitation may begin as a brief period of rain or mixed rain and snow, especially along and southeast of the I-95 corridor. This mix should be short-lived however, as much colder air rushes in behind an Arctic front that will move through over the course of the night. In terms of timing, some light precipitation could begin as early as the mid-late evening hours, but the bulk of the precipitation along the I-95 corridor is expected to occur between roughly 11 PM and 7 AM. The band that will develop will be a relatively narrow feature, and will feature moderate to heavy snow at times. Snowfall rates within the band could near or potentially briefly exceed one inch per hour at times late Saturday night. With a narrow feature producing heavy precipitation, snow totals will be heavily dependent on the ultimate placement of this band. This, combined with the potential for a bit of mixing with rain at onset makes for a challenging snowfall forecast. Probabilistically speaking, 12z guidance has focused in on the I-95 corridor from DC northeastward, and then eastward along US-50 toward the Chesapeake, with northeast Maryland southward toward Annapolis having the greatest probabilities for higher totals. As of this moment, a broad 1-4 inches from the vicinity of the I-95 corridor eastward appears like the most likely scenario, with embedded maxes of 4-7 inches possible where the band resides for the longest time period. Since there will be very sharp snowfall gradients on the edges of this band, and there`s still a bit of uncertainty with respect to where this band will be, we`ve decided to hold off on issuing headlines to the east of the Blue Ridge for the time being. Headlines will almost certainly be needed eventually, and we`ll continue to assess trends and refine the forecast through the remainder of the day. Snow will end from northwest to southeast a few hours either side of daybreak, with the back edge of the snow clearing southern Maryland by around mid-morning. Strong cold air advection is expected behind the Arctic front through the day Sunday, with 850 hPa temperatures crashing to around -15 to -20 C by peak heating. This will cause temperatures to drop through the 20s over the course of the day. Northwesterly wind gusts to around 35 mph will make it feel even colder, pushing wind chills into the single digits and teens. After the snow moves out, dry conditions are expected to the east of the mountains. Upslope snow showers will linger in the Alleghenies over the course of the day. Cold and windy conditions will continue through Sunday night, with cold weather headlines likely being needed for portions of the area. &&

@NorthArlington101 do you have the closeup version? This is the closest PW gets

We all take

Its not heavy snow... but a good 6 to 8 hours of snow across most of the region on the 18z RGEM

I'm figuring they would wait till after the 00z suite before issuing anything tbh

Kinda late from LWX for their afternoon AFD

For the Alleghenies As the wave amplifies, most models show a jet steak developing downstream, with an enhanced band of precipitation developing in the equatorward entrance region of the jet streak. While there`s still some uncertainty with respect to exactly where this band winds up, most solutions have this enhanced band of precipitation developing along the I-95 corridor Saturday night. This could result in a relative minimum in precipitation between the Blue Ridge and the Alleghenies, with higher totals along the I-95 corridor (where the best synoptic forcing will be) and in the Alleghenies (where there will be some additional upslope snow as the system departs). With such a narrow banded feature, there`s still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how much precipitation will ultimately fall. Precipitation could also potentially start as a brief period of rain along the I-95 corridor before much colder air rushes in later during the night behind an Arctic front. For these reasons, a wide variety of potential solutions exists, especially along the I-95 corridor. Further west, a high end- advisory or low-end warning level snowfall appears likely. Between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge lesser QPF amounts are likely with all precipitation likely falling as snow. Most solutions show a coating to two inches of snow in this area, but as much as 4 inches could be possible in a high end scenario in the Shenadoah Valley. Further east, around the I-95 corridor, the widest range of potential solutions exists. If most of the precipitation were to fall as rain, or the band of higher QPF were to shift northward out of the area, as little as a coating to an inch of snow could occur. Currently, we have 1-4 inches of snow forecast as the most likely scenario to the east of the Blue Ridge. In a high end scenario, as much as 6 inches of snow could occur under the heaviest part of the band if the precipitation stays all snow. Aside from the threat for snow early in the day, winds will pick up substantially behind this arctic front by Sunday afternoon. Expect wind gusts out of the northwest up to 30 mph, with gusts closer to 45 mph on the ridgetops out west. Wind headlines cannot be ruled out for the ridges during this timeframe as a result.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-130245- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.251214T0300Z-251214T1800Z/ Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 10 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106- 131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville, Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown, Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill, Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

I know this is Mt. Holly... but definitely thought they'd wait one more model cycle URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106- 131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville, Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown, Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill, Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Same. If we get more than an inch, I would be super pleased

I believe Kuchera is slightly worse lol