yoda

Looks like maybe a sneaky threat tomorrow... more out west though

Ok then - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040752Z - 040845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas through 6-7 AM EDT. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of Elkins WV. This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward, along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front, around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into northern Mid Atlantic. Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat (CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern Virginia through southern New Jersey. While some further intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast soundings. However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855 39897751 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

81/64 at DCA at 5pm

That sounds more like a "we'll re-evaluate in a few hours" MCD than a no chance of a watch

MCD just came out for WV into VA to just southwest of DC

Looks like a pretty decent looking hook

Looks like a small MCS that rides the WF or what's left of it?

18z HRRR made things really interesting in MD overnight lol

Tornado Watch up - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0107.html

Which is interesting because if you take a peak at the 12z NAM Nest soundings, you'd think something would go. But looking deeper, I see ConvT is 84 degrees - so I'm assuming that since we aren't forecasted to reach that temperature, the NAM Nest sim radar isn't showing convection. Am I reading that correctly or am I offbase?

12z NAM and the NAM NEST aren't really enthused for anything... HRRR is though and has been for many runs

I think we are waiting for the WF to come through later

@Kmlwx you'd like the 08z HRRR helicity swath lol Sim radar looks pretty nice on that run as well

I'll take the 06z and 07z HRRR btw. Wonder if that severe squall line out west will be laying down boundaries for this afternoon 06z NAM NEST still not enthusiastic for really anything, 06z NAM now shows storms coming in around 21z 00z FV3 also not enthusiastic... 06z RAP seems its very enthusiastic lol

@high risk why would looping hodos suppress updraft development? Too much wind shear? NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A warm front lifting north of the area today combined with southerly flow from high pressure offshore, will lead to plenty of warm and moist air in the forecast area. Additionally, a cold front approaching from the west will create an environment conducive to rain showers and possible severe thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE, strong shear, and the frontal boundary approaching during peak heating lead to possible strong to severe thunderstorms. That being said, model soundings show looping hodographs, due to wind shear,which may suppress updraft development.Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening and into the overnight as the cold front moves through the forecast area.