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Not surprising. You can usually 'subtract' a category from the intensity impacts for a weakening system. It will be interesting to see how this survives. I think it is going to emerge quite weak from the Yucatan since it was weakening and hit land at the 'wrong' time. Yucatan can often take quite a toll on systems. I always think of Isidore (2002)..... it lost its inner core of the Yucatan and never got it back.
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Writing off 21 days with tons of arctic air in the pattern is an interesting position.
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Clearly seems to be beginning an ERC which will probably help the wind-aspect of this system for coastal Florida. Also, if that is the case, could cause weakening once inland a little more quickly than expected.
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Biggest takeaway is that it came in way, way stronger at 500mb than the previous run. I mean a lot stronger. Exactly how that closes off, and how the vort energy causes the ULL to wobble, to make a big difference for folks in the western Carolinas.
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Stronger system, much more pronounced warm nose ahead of it at 60-63 hours. ULL is much deeper at that point over MS/AL compared to 6z.
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This (12z) NAM run looks like it will turn out fun.
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Folks complaining about the overnight runs must not have been paying attention this winter. At least it's something.
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Not exactly correct.
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The Euro took a big step west with the diving energy in the Plains compared to its 0z run. Significant adjustment IMO. 0z: 12z:
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6z GFS is definitely still a hit of snow for a lot of the region. But yes, it is a later, further east phase/ digging.... not what most would want. 6z compared to 0z:
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I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.
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I have not dug deeply into the longer range this morning, but when I did yesterday, I saw nothing at all that signaled an end to winter anytime soon.
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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm
msuwx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in Southeastern States
That was it! And yes they did.... that areas has had it rough!