OSUmetstud

This et transition is pretty fake...strictly from ssts and convection lost for now. It's still very muggy this morning here. No cool and dry air advection on the backside. Sig seas up to 9.6 m at hibernia and 10.3 m at hebron this morning. https://x.com/rcbstormpost/status/1825850277015982085?t=CgGmoxq6q8_phAUbGVI5oA&s=19

This will likely be the station with the best surface obs as Ernesto passes makes it cpa over the next few hours. https://capebretonweather.ca/station.html#id=001D0AE0065C

No. It's tracking well south of there.

18z best track is still 80 kt

12z best track is 80 kt

I'm guessing they'll go with 85 kt cat 2 as of 12z best track but we'll see. That's more of a blend of tafb and cimss data. Reasonable chance it will be weaker even by the 1100 edt advisory given ssts now decreasing along the path.

So close to a real good smack.

I wonder if it can take advantage of tonight into tomorrow's low shear. The environment is super dry though.

I've done 3 briefings today with the offshore oil and gas guys, they're going to get it. Even the heavy rain with Ernesto doesn't look too scary at this point - it's moving quite quickly and there's a lack of frontal enhancement. I think max might approach 2 to 4", but models are really not wanting to spread the QPF northwest of the TC which is weird.

Were going to get the rain, i feel like landfall is pretty unlikely at this point. Model agreement is excellent and if anything there's been a small trend southeast with time.

The combination of bermuda stone construction (almost no homes made of wood), the hilly nature of the island, the lack of continental shelf, and lower poverty really reduce the potential for high end devastation.

Westward short term adjustments to Lee don't increase US landfall probabilities much if it at all because they also delay latitude gain with the Great Lakes trough trending eastward and having a tendency to pull out of the northeast with time.

Tough when the ensemble suite stretches from Bermuda to central Newfoundland for the same forecast hour. The spread at range for Lee is less than climo per Tomer Burg's products.

Yeah for sure. I was pretty convinced Franklin was coming, then it all changed lol.