CoastalWx

I’d probably use Blue Hill as the standard for sunshine hours.

Nobody is arguing that it won’t stretch or split. But the vibe coming from all this acts like a colonial winter is coming.

If we had some blocking or maybe Bering Sea ridging then it’s possible we could see impacts, but we will be fighting the Pacific influence.

I will say the pattern on the EPS and AI EPS is a little interesting regarding storminess later in the 11-15 day.

December looks warm on that, but that seems to be the call from many.

I’m not saying we won’t get a trough out of it, but I have a big problem with how this it hyped.

it’s totally Clickbait aimed to get weenies into subscriptions. Look at how they’re trying to categorize this. They portrayed this like it’s going to lead to some crazy epic winter wx In November.

I mean you should see the 1mb split……wowzers!!

I like looking at the ensemble 50mb view. I also Shoukd mention it’s good to make sure that the split lasts. I’ve seen some splits last just a few days.

I’m not trying to be a Debbie, but it has to be able to couple to the troposphere. I have seen nobody talk about that, only about how there’s a split. If you ask me, it’s a bit misleading… And then I saw one person talk about it could lead to a very sharp cold snap later in November. But that can happen regardless. Polar Vortex splits are meant to adjust the large scale pattern for awhile, not two days. All the stuff I’ve seen just seems very misleading to me and more of click bait type stuff. The irony is that the pattern that helps cause the split will lead to a lot of CONUS warmth. Judah actually agreed on that. This split would also have to fight off Nino forcing which may make it harder to couple to the troposphere. We could see a split have more meaningful impact as @40/70 Benchmark had alluded to come mid winter and beyond. But right now, many energy mets that I know are not sold on this being much or anything.

Like who? lol. It’s going to lead to a warm November across the CONUS and then restrengthens in December.

5 yr anny of the big blow in SE areas. One of the top wind storms of my life. Phil just dragging his sack all over.

The PV stuff is click bait.

It’s October 27th. lol. Climo laughs at those looking for winter.

It’s also hard for my hood to get to below 32 before 11/1. Might be similar to ORH although I think I hit it once. Since 2020. I did get to 23 on 10/31/20 with 5” OTG lol.