CoastalWx

12z guidance all showing the piece of nrn stream vort coming due south into New England does not phase in to the west, but moves on top and helps squash this.

Canadian east too. He's got this.

It would be fitting to start fall right where we exited summer....boredom.

GFS is pushing in the H5 ridging into New England to keep the storm further offshore.

Hopefully it shits itself, but that is in the envelope of solutions. Also subtle shift east overall I thought on all 6z despite the retro west.

The Perfect Stein on the GFS suite. Op and AI.

I meant ICON.

Ukie slings this towards the Cape. Just dumbells in.

Lets see if 12z can make this "The Perfect Stein."

Deep mind has a group of tracks bending west south of the islands too.

FWIW both euro and euro ai ensembles came NW.

I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5. But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too. We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.

Obviously we are weenie projecting, but decent NNE ageo flow there with strong HP N and NW.

You’d be buried alive in winter.

6z euro stalls and then moves west towards ACK. It’s like 40-50kts+ on the coast for over 24 hours.