Clinch Leatherwood

Forecasters so often tend to only look forward, seeing each model run as a reset. That's what happened with the Euro. Each time it shifted NE someone on the edge to the NE justified it as okay, ignoring the shifts because it's the euro and always right. The simple clown Euro Wx snowfall maps, taken all the way back from the 1/24/0z run forward provided a fascinating and undeniable animation With a relatively stable model like the Euro it's IMO extremely useful to look at those generic, quantifiable summary type trends to see what the model is doing and moving. Particularly with the snowfall clown map it kind of gives a rough look at temps, QPF etc which can give a very quick snapshot. It's useful with the GFS as an offset to the Euro too, but the NAM...forget it. I asked on the NYC thread too.....why did NCEP/HPC summarily and repeatedly dismiss the RGEM/CMC? It appears this was done simply because the Euro carried so much weigh the other way, it was discounted.

Appreciated but like I said aside of Kevin/Steve/Will's death band....it was mainly macro. I still cannot really see why it failed or why it's done this a couple of times now. DT says it's the 50/50 being over modeled, Ocean had the good find on the digging s/w.....who knows? It never had these issues before the upgrade. This is the my March 2014 heart break that will change a lot of people going forward when the Euro stands alone on the sw/slow edge of guidance (until they fix). FWIW, I may blow this yet. I really don't buy the widespread nature of the Euro totals overnight, nor it's all day snows tomorrow and I stand to get croaked the most by OES. I may be wrong as this issue may dampen in a mature storm setting. BUT, I see the w/v and radar down to the s/w and clearly we're seeing something take place as the "support" seems to be going over the top of that band (note it's building behind it to the east now).... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes I am guessing about another 8-12" here. Snow winds down by 11 or 12.

For those so inclined http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Flip between the 12z and 0z. Worst I've ever seen the Euro do. That's pathetic for that time range, if it were the NAM it'd be getting crapped all over. Now here's the thing? How do we know it's not off by just as much at h12 this run? Food for thought..although radar looks good.

Lot of people going to wake up very pissed off to the west. Looks like the band is not far from it's maximum push west. Gaping hole in RI. What's up with RI and sucker holes?

One thing about the team behind the Euro. They'll figure out what's happened since the upgrade and probably fix it next update. Thanks but like I said more about going through this twice last winter with storms stalling further east (nobody else cared)..and it did this than having any unique insight. More a grudge! That was one to remember too. No -NAO, seems to be the case that we don't get things to come together as easy. It's going gong show now, look at that moisture exploding in the old dry slot. Also note the screw zone developing in between the two main bands. Something to watch.

What hasn't changed is the max jack zone staying near Boston/PVD. Multi-model consensus on that, so perhaps the error minimizes/mutes once the low is more mature. Who knows. I do plan on an earlier exit to the snow tomorrow, probably before lunch for the serious stuff aside of some bands or OES. Really getting cranking now, moisture just piling in from the SE

When does it stop the error? We appear to be about to see a split with one deform band to the west, another near the coast and then some OES.

the Euro is no longer infallible and has a particular issue with negative tilted east coast troughs/captures absent true -NAO. I would call it a clear bias at this point, there are enough instances since the upgrade to document. It's 10 plus year dominance did a p diddy mind f&&& on people up an down the coast. Still the best, but perfection is no longer guaranteed. Impossible to know, but I would take whatever the Euro shows from this run right now for 12h, and adjust it based on the last 5-6 runs worth of trends. I don't think the HRRR looks terrible, and I will say at this point I doubt widespread meanginful snow after lunch in EMA. I think bands sure, but I think it'll continue possibly to be displaced ENE. Also - was saying to steve and kevin earlier...I thought the jack zone may be in their triangle with Will. Can see an explosively developing band there. May not go far. That could be a secondary jack that the HRRR etc are picking up on .

For this run. I think at this point we have to once again assume it's struggling to ascertain the development and adjust this run, and our expectations accordingly.

I will stand by what I said, against itself this is one of the poorest performances I can remember for the Euro. Luckily semi-predictable and I do think we're beginning to document a bias, JMHO. If history is a guide the Euro is not done catching up. Wxniss I meant to post this on this thread...but the HRRR (not a fan) starts to come apart soon too. This was the 3z total snow output.

BTW 12z Euro had the same feature along the boundary...it just collapsed hardest and fastest to a position under ack. That can should flip hard east or SE S in the next few hours if those west tucks are valid. If we see it staying E or ENE or NE....we very clearly know the low is staying further east.

This sticks out to me http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008 I do think this lends some credibility to at least a temporarily extension.

GFS hints at it, but then collapses everything back again. UKMET hints at it, collapses back too on the western edge. NAM never really bites at all. Looking at the WV though...I do think wxniss we'll see a pulse down center to west for at least a few hours, as we wait for the rest of the energy to dive and for it all to stack. We'll see what the radar shows in central/wMA, CT, LI and sw in the next hour.

Lack of any clear and convincing reason to change for another few hours. You can see wxniss found a good point there....The RGEM spins that up, and in the next 3-5 hours elongates the low NE from the benchmark. It's at that moment the dynamics begin to whither a bit aside of some deformation banding. The GFS and NAM don't do this, nor does the 0z UKMET. If we see the radar go to dogsh* from SW to NE the further west and south you guy starting about 1-2am aside of some bands....we'll know there's a potential issue. It should be clear as day in the next 1-2.5 hours. We'd see a pretty marked decrease in intensity of even the banded snows off the NJ coast up through LI and into C W MA. GFS/RGEM are not terribly dissimilar the GFS just doesn't bite on the elongated low. NAM is on it's own right now. Everything is wrapping up. Very marked increase in winds, very notable spin now to the radar. Maybe a few gravity waves south?

You can see that eastern lobe clear as day on the water vapor, I have no doubt there's at least a kink under it.