dendrite

That euro suite is definitely intriguing…a lot more ridging in the northeast.

4th straight morning clearing snow 6.7°

Pretty good vortmax on that sucker despite the gph field looking meh

Kp is through the roof…over 8 Bz has been north though, but it’s been trending toward negative. So we’ll see. Skies are mostly clear here, but I don’t see anything even with a 3s exposure.

Except for the last 2 weeks. We’ll probably get the departures back to BN for the month, but it obviously gets more difficult to move the needle the further we go. Everyone in SNE is around +3 right now.

Feb 96 where they did -50s/-60 INL had -32C at 850 and -40C at 925 on the RAOB. Ooze a 1055 high over them and the heart of the cold can come in below 850.

I was just looking up the 1933 data from all of the NH sites and there’s a lot of -40s in Coos, but 2 stood out…-48° in Milan and -52° in Dixville Notch. Unfortunately they were stamped with “not standard thermometer” on the forms.

1933 and 1943 would’ve been pretty cold up there. Franklin COOP had -40° in the 1943 one. That probably means somewhere around -30° here on the hill considering CON had their all time record low of -37°. I need to find the closest station relevant to your climo for those years.

A high of -11° at CON…they’ve done a sub zero high once since the Feb 1943 shot (-2 1981). But yeah…everything had to align for that 1933 airmass.

Yeah I’ll take the over on a high of -5° here. Although 5-10° wouldn’t surprise me. I’d love to know what the mid level temps were for 12/29/33. The afternoon high up here was -15°. That’s like 10° colder than anything else on record up here.

Yeah EPS AI keeps the lower heights further west too.

These can be deals where you get a big fronto band on the northern edge (convergence/stretching of parcels) so I wouldn’t count us out yet.

Pic for reference. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s right…but I’d prefer the least confluent option possible.

At d6 the EC op has a PV lobe over James Bay and a lot more suppression of the flow over our region. AI has a more consolidated, closed PV near the southern MB/ON border. That allows for more ridging over New England and room for the system to creep up the coast. I think we’re playing with heartache up here, but there’s a shot.

Still a lot to iron out. Stick to ens trends.