michsnowfreak

Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.

I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.

Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol. Remember, slightly warmer winter temps in some places are BETTER for snowfall, not worse.

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they. Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow. I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

I love a good summer storm (as long as it doesn't knock down trees lol). But in winter I couldn't care less about rain. Id rather miss an entire storm than get rain. The previous 2 winters had hardly any rain (especially in Jan/Feb). I suspect this winter sees more rain and wet snow than the last 2 combined. The last two years were almost all powder. Which i love, I just like to switch it up a bit.

This is an interesting take Jeb! I know you love your snow, but many snow lovers take a hard pass on winter rain.

There was a big 14.8" snowstorm Jan 31st.

Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet. Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4". NYC was well below at 8.1"

Duluth, MN was even crazier than Minneapolis. Again, these are today's averages. DULUTH Dec: +15.6° Jan: +9.3° Feb: +15.6°

The core of warmth in 1877-78 was in the upper midwest and into Canada. It wasn't even a mild winter on the east coast. It ranks only 12th warmest from 1869-1900 at NYC. 1877-78 departures using today's averages MSP Dec: +11.8° Jan: +5.6° Feb: +10.9° DTW Dec: +6.8° Jan: +1.5° Feb: +1.2° NYC Dec: -1.7° Jan: -3.8° Feb: -3.6°

I feel its moreso with the coop stations. Ive seen some ridiculous temps of both extremes in old coop notes. I feel most major climate sites are pretty accurate to the 1870s.

Ive said it before and ill say it again. I do not agree with alot of the stuff you post, but you always remain respectful so I have no problem agreeing to disagree on some things. This is the huge difference between you and snowman.

Makes sense. After almost any winter rainstorm there's a lake snow response.

I think thats a reasonable take. Especially for the coast, its not like December is prime winter normally anyway, much less in a strong nino. @roardog @LakePaste25 and other Great Lakers. @40/70 Benchmark i know you dont forecast for the Lakes. I dont "forecast" at all but with all the discussion to date I can envision the season playing out something like this in SE MI- we get a good winter blast in mid or late November (hopefully Thanksgiving time) with well below avg temps and snow (probably synoptic and lake- watch out lake belts). Then December sees that late Fall vibe return. Not "warm", but more murky mild and Novembery. It will snow, but with the mild days handily outnumbering the cold ones will need some luck and good timing or else Decembers wintry opportunities may be limited to mood flakes and snow squalls. January and February is when its game on but we will have two different scenarios to worry about. Scenario 1- the warmer strong nino outcome. More mild days. This also increases our odds bigtime of those dynamic wet snowstorms (think Jan/Mar 2023). But with those odds you still have to worry about storm track, plus you lose a lot of the daily mood flakes/light snows you get most winters. Scenario 2- the colder outcome models hint at. This is good for a more traditional winter feel, but too much of this could be cold and dry (moreso MI and west, not so much LakePaste territory). Winters like 1957-58 & 1965-66 that east coasters salivate over were boring as hell here, cold and dry with very light snowfall. We did at least have a light 1-3" snowcover each time for all the cold, but id imagine id be pulling my hair out as multiple storms hit the east. (Closest ive come to that was 1995-96 but even that was better than '58 or '66). Personally I dont think its happening, at least to that extent. If the cold wins, I think we see much more snow than '58 or '66 (not necessarily above avg, just more than those pitiful years). We've had two winters in a row where snowcover and cold "outpaced" snowfall, cant imagine 3 in a row. March- most of us are well overdue for a good March and early outlooks agree. I expect a good snowstorm this month. And if the rest of winter is lighter on snowfall, I can almost guarantee it.