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michsnowfreak

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About michsnowfreak

  • Birthday 05/08/1983

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    http://www.facebook.com/josh.halasy

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDTW
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    Male
  • Location:
    Wyandotte, Michigan

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  1. michsnowfreak
    A few warm days in any given May are normal. The monthly departure is still colder than avg. Looks like all pre-stromg nino Mays had a max in the mid to upper 80s here.
  2. michsnowfreak
    Actually I see it as the opposite. There were a few very disappointed with how last winter turned out cold/wintry. Didn't sit well with them at all so with a big nino coming and better odds for a milder winter, the excitement cant be contained. We will still get winter regardless, but if you want the mild strong el nino pattern, you can say goodbye to any winter sun. No winters are grayer in the already gray Great Lakes than mild nino ones.
  3. michsnowfreak
    I would never count on a "good" winter in a strong nino. But I also wouldn't just assume that the stronger the nino the worse the winter will be. There are other pieces of the puzzle besides enso.
  4. michsnowfreak
    They dig and dig to find this stuff lol.
  5. michsnowfreak
    2015-16 had multiple wintry bouts outside the torch December. I feel like for here, a strong (or super) nino is going to have 1 horrendous month and the rest of the time will have multiple chances that make or break how bad (or good) the winter is. Its different in the east coast where it seems going on getting (or not getting) one massive storm will be the story of a strong nino winter.
  6. michsnowfreak
    As terrible as '23-24 was, January was a good month here. Just the rest of that winter absolutely sucked. And the March thing is wild lately....November has been more wintry than March of late.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Mar & Apr were warm doninated...the rest came dominated here. DTW monthly departures- Nov: -0.4 Dec: -3.6 Jan: -5.2 Feb: -0.2 Mar: +4.9 Apr: +5.2 May: -5.4
  8. michsnowfreak
    Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.
  9. michsnowfreak
    I was only referring to the comment about 2013-14...I said it in spring 2014 and ill say it to the end...there will never be another 2013-14. Goes far beyond just being the snowiest winter on record. A retired local climatologist did a writeup at the time how it was the most severe winter on record and all the things that made it that. Not repeating that winter has nothing to do with warmer globe or anything like that. It was a winter that defied local climo. As for 2015-16 thru 2024-25, ive discussed it several times as well as how it differed from the warmth of the east. Here it was a product of 5 very mild winters (15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24) and the rest around avg (+/- a minimal amt) whereas the east was consistent mild each year. I will say though that 2025-26 was solidly colder than avg. Its colder than the longterm avg and its colder than the coldest 30-year normal in the entire period of record. The departure would be even more impressive if not for a sharp rebound the 2nd half of Feb. Lastly, what has intrigued me more than anything is how the past several decades, milder winters have less correlation to low snowfall (not just les but synoptic too) than they used to. Its more of a crapshoot now.
  10. michsnowfreak
    Agree. The physics of meteorology are fascinating and often completely lost in these threads by some.
  11. michsnowfreak
    It's no more pathetic than having a constant warm bias. Anthonys response originated from bluewave literally saying the reason all time historic winters havent been broken the past decade is a warming globe. Thats an insane position. So we're supposed to get the most severe winter on record every decade then topple it the next decade? Some of the things that were said in these enso threads the past few years were absolutely ridiculous and proven immediately untrue the following winters, whether you want to call it a forecast or not. The bias in general is why SO many people dont post here anymore.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". "Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24. And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).
  13. michsnowfreak
    We had snow late evening May 10, 2020. I had 0.7", DTW 0.5".
  14. michsnowfreak
    Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol. Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches.
  15. michsnowfreak
    33 at DTW this morning. 27 at Ann Arbor.
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