michsnowfreak

That is one funky looking standout of blue. Jokes aside, I know you know it, but remember its all relative. The coldest winter ever recorded in Anniston, AL is warmer than the warmest winter ever recorded here. I feel like when we are so far out from the next winter, its easy to focus too much on temps.

Cansips still onto another cold winter here in the Lakes. I have my doubts, but it by far was the best model locally last winter. This is why it will be interesting to follow along this summer. After 2 cold winters, personally I expect a mild winter next year, tho not nearly to the extreme that a few here are undoubtedly hoping for. Those of us at more northern latitudes have seen multiple snowstorms track south the last few years (more than usual) so as always seeing how ALL the indicies, the Pacific, etc behave is just as important as actual temp anamolies.

How can NG "predict" weather trends months in advance?

Yes. Although I WILL say...and this is NOT taking ANYTHING away from them...but NWS MQT is really not representative of Marquette. Its an absolute microclimate snowmagnet. There are multiple similar lake superior microclimates up there (for instance, look at our own @weatherbo) but many of them are in extremely rural to non-populated areas where we may never know how much snow possibly falls at THE best spot. I used to watch the NMU snowcam in Marquette and you could tell there was nowhere near the amt of snow on the ground as MQT officially had. But when I went up there and scoped the area out its an absolute fact. The snow rapidly increases, and its very noticeably, right near the NWS office. The 7am snowdepth today at MQT is 19". The city of Marquette webcams show completely bare ground. For anyone of us, take the absolute snowiest location in your entire metro-area and its outskirts and pretend that would be the official climate station. It would be like Detroit snow records being taken in Lake Orion (which unofficially averages probably 60", not 40-45" like Detroit). Thats how it is in Marquette.

My phone woke me at 2am with the tornado warning alert. I ended up being up 2 hours. The storm was wicked but no tornado here. Possible one 3 miles north. Got 0.82" rain. Looks like quite a bit of damage noted in ann arbor, Dearborn, lincoln park. The constant lightning illuminated the black cloud overhead

Other than that one article that is shared over and over by the same people, we have no idea what went into measuring at every location pre-1950. I think actually 1948 is when the 6 hr started at airports. That is also when they started rounding up daily snow depth to nearest inch. I have done plenty of local research on past weather events and while human error was there in 1880 and is there in 2026, I am pretty confident in the snow record at Detroit (and most other 1st order stations) being quite accurate. Now, coops and NON first order, who knows and there are undoubtedly tons of error. Back in the 1800s and very early 1900s they would always say "10 inches of snow fell on the level" or something like that. They applied a 10-1 ratio usually. But it would make more sense to apply a 10-1 ratio to what you measured than to melt snow down for a liquid and apply the ratio to snow. Its a hell of a lot easier measuring snow than it is melting it down for liquid equivalent.

Again, to be clear, im only doubting super at this point. It would be unheard of so close. Definitely a nino is coming. Super would not be fun, but we always get winter in the great lakes. Thats a great thing about living here. You're rescued in the worst case scenarios. Our climate is less feast/famine. One thing that im liking is the persistent of the eastern trough in recent years.

Shortly after I posted that I discovered the dataset and I must say its very impressive to have an actual consistent record of snow/temp/precip pre-1870. I would kill to have that for my area. As for measuring snow...ive seen that link many times. I've also measured snow for 30 years. Pre-1950 we dont know how individual observers measured. Each station mightve had their own method. What i CAN tell you is that clearing at 6 hours mostly affects fluffy lake snow, double digit storms, or a very long duration snowfall. More run of the mill snowfalls without taint the effect is minimal.

Im anti hype. El nino coming nearly for sure. But to predict super so far out....totally skeptical.

Pre nino summers are often cooler than avg in the Great Lakes.

Id bet money its not a super nino. But yes, an El Nino is coming

1916-17, 1917-18, & 1919-20 were very cold winters and 1918-19 & 1920-21 very mild here. Of particular extreme was 1917-18 & 1918-19. The cold 1917-18 was extremely impressive and it likely ranks as one of the conus coldest winters on record (I concentrate on local & regional weather, not the entire conus, so idk the ranking). Then 1918-19 was a mild, snowless winter with a huge influenza pandemic. Newspapers at the time attributed the unusually warm winter weather to helping fuel "The Grippe".

I know you have a lot of pent up troll posting to do from us having a cold winter, but honestly this is a perfect example of why one year is never a perfect match. 1996-97 here had an average winter and a cold spring. 2025-26 had a cold winter and a so far warm spring.

Its funny youre being your usual smart ass self when I made one comment on an alleged newark dataset i didnt know existed and had never seen. Its funnier though that you always ridicule snow amounts from notorious low snow decades like the 1930s or 1950s when the weather bureau was well established and records detailed "there must be something wrong with how they measured". But a random snowy dataset with minimal info pops up from the 1850s and its gospel, no questions asked.

This winter was much colder in the Great Lakes than 1996-97.