michsnowfreak

Its optimistic to expect a subpar winter? Or optimistic to assume its going to snow in Michigan as it does dozens of times every winter?

Lmao. Actually the upper midwest is ground zero. But its all relative to normal. A Nino torch here is still solidly colder than your average and is usually because of 1 torch month. You can wish snow away all you want. It snows in MI no matter what. 2023-24: 34.9F 2015-16: 33.5F 1997-98: 33.9F 1982-83: 32.5F 1972-73: 27.8F 1877-78: 31.5F

An all time low for ONE month. Not a whole season.

Im well aware it can go both ways. And ive said many times I expect a warm (relative to climo) December. YOU act like it can't go either way. Feb 1998 with a trace of snow at Detroit set an all time low record, but the winter as a whole still saw 23.4" snow and 30 days with 1"+ snowcover. Strong Ninos since 1878 have a range at Detroit of 20-45" snow, and I think 30-35" is a reasonable guess for this winter. Below avg, but not record territory.

I havent followed this thread like I have the enso thread in the main forum, but honestly, I haven't seen anyone be optimistic for a "good winter". Its weird because I keep seeing posts like this cautioning optimism (rightly so) but I never see any optimistic posts in the first place . What i see is multiple reasonable posts explaining why a subpar winter doesn't mean it will be all-time bad despite an all-time nino. The trolls misread this and eat it up but I think everyone is prepared for a subpar winter and hoping for the best. Its going to snow and its going to snow many times in northern places. But when you add everything up in April, it very likely will have snowed less than average. Its a simple concept. None of us know exactly when the cold, snowy, or torchy periods will be, so theres still always the unknowns of what will go surprisingly right and what will go frustratingly wrong.

A summer of humid nights again. 2026 finished as the 20th warmest summer on record at Detroit, thanks heavily to the low temps. The total 90°+ days count was 12, which is actually 1 LESS than avg (amd exactly normal per longterm avg).

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Random find. I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Youre pathetic. Seeing as though you dont even understand how the weather works, itll be nice when you disappear mid winter when the east gets a noreaster.

My thoughts on this, agree or disagree.... The range of strong/super El Nino snowfalls for Detroit is 20-45". They all have some subtle things in common (early snow, warm December, much colder Jan and/or Feb) but all have differences as well. If the juiced jet provides above avg precip, it can easily be an ok snow year. It works both ways. Since the beginning of record, there are ebbs and flows with snowfall. The record snow of the 2010s settled down big time in the 2020s. We were due. Now, its been 5 years since we had an above avg snow season, so were due the other way. Last years total snow number was only an inch below the longterm avg (5" below the snowier current avg, thanks to the 2000s-10s). But it had way above avg snowcover and below avg temps, so much so it was rated a severe winter on AWSSI. This is now 2 winters in a row that were "cold and white" without a surplus of snow. Theres no question this winter will be warmer than the last 2, but who says thats automatically less snow? We can easily get mild, snowy winters just as we can get cold, white and dry. The strong Nino of 2015-16 had slightly below avg snow in Detroit but above avg snow in the northern suburbs and well above avg snow towards Flint, all with mild temps. Its interesting that most models have eastern MI in the above avg precip as well, on the western shield of the east coast wetness and with a juiced jet. If that comes to fruition, kiss the "dry" el nino goodbye. Of course, it could also unfold in the nightmarish fashion of warm, wet December then colder/drier Jan/Feb. Its all speculation. All that said, I have never once predicted a good winter this year. I expect a subpar winter. But not crazy so. If i had to put a guess on snowfall, id say 30-33" for DTW.

A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now

I know youre likely exaggerating, but I have friends in the UK and I can guarantee Chicago will have a colder/snowier winter than London.

November 19th

Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.

Not the whole winter. Maybe December.