michsnowfreak

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

True. The coast is its own beast.

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

Any idea the strength of the 1925-26 Nino?

Im noticing the usual early color popping here. Im going to Traverse City Oct 20-22. Hoping its perfect up there then. They usually change later on the lakeshore than inland, so their color peak is usually around ours as opposed to more inland places like Gaylord which peak at least 2 weeks earlier.

Exactly what I have been saying to my local weather group chat for Southeast MI. Theres not going to be snow on the ground almost all winter like last year, but the seasonal total is still wide up in the air. I do feel it will be subpar in true strong Nino fashion, but not crazy bad. We rely more on frequent snowfall than a big storm. We are not going to get a 2-3' noreaster (our big storms are 6-12") so its going to be how many snowy periods will there be? Warm, wet Dec followed by cold, dry Jan/Feb is usually a worry for some of the strong Ninos past (57-58, 65-66) but Im not as worried about super dry this time. The east coast should love the "potential" with the wet signal on all models.

I love that. I need a hammock, I have so many nice trees in my backyard. But it needs to be strong, Im 6'5" and a big guy lol.

Its optimistic to expect a subpar winter? Or optimistic to assume its going to snow in Michigan as it does dozens of times every winter?

Lmao. Actually the upper midwest is ground zero. But its all relative to normal. A Nino torch here is still solidly colder than your average and is usually because of 1 torch month. You can wish snow away all you want. It snows in MI no matter what. 2023-24: 34.9F 2015-16: 33.5F 1997-98: 33.9F 1982-83: 32.5F 1972-73: 27.8F 1877-78: 31.5F

An all time low for ONE month. Not a whole season.

Im well aware it can go both ways. And ive said many times I expect a warm (relative to climo) December. YOU act like it can't go either way. Feb 1998 with a trace of snow at Detroit set an all time low record, but the winter as a whole still saw 23.4" snow and 30 days with 1"+ snowcover. Strong Ninos since 1878 have a range at Detroit of 20-45" snow, and I think 30-35" is a reasonable guess for this winter. Below avg, but not record territory.

I havent followed this thread like I have the enso thread in the main forum, but honestly, I haven't seen anyone be optimistic for a "good winter". Its weird because I keep seeing posts like this cautioning optimism (rightly so) but I never see any optimistic posts in the first place . What i see is multiple reasonable posts explaining why a subpar winter doesn't mean it will be all-time bad despite an all-time nino. The trolls misread this and eat it up but I think everyone is prepared for a subpar winter and hoping for the best. Its going to snow and its going to snow many times in northern places. But when you add everything up in April, it very likely will have snowed less than average. Its a simple concept. None of us know exactly when the cold, snowy, or torchy periods will be, so theres still always the unknowns of what will go surprisingly right and what will go frustratingly wrong.

A summer of humid nights again. 2026 finished as the 20th warmest summer on record at Detroit, thanks heavily to the low temps. The total 90°+ days count was 12, which is actually 1 LESS than avg (amd exactly normal per longterm avg).

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Random find. I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.