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michsnowfreak

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About michsnowfreak

  • Birthday 05/08/1983

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    http://www.facebook.com/josh.halasy

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDTW
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    Male
  • Location:
    Wyandotte, Michigan

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  1. michsnowfreak
    Agree. The physics of meteorology are fascinating and often completely lost in these threads by some.
  2. michsnowfreak
    It's no more pathetic than having a constant warm bias. Anthonys response originated from bluewave literally saying the reason all time historic winters havent been broken the past decade is a warming globe. Thats an insane position. So we're supposed to get the most severe winter on record every decade then topple it the next decade? Some of the things that were said in these enso threads the past few years were absolutely ridiculous and proven immediately untrue the following winters, whether you want to call it a forecast or not. The bias in general is why SO many people dont post here anymore.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". "Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24. And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).
  4. michsnowfreak
    We had snow late evening May 10, 2020. I had 0.7", DTW 0.5".
  5. michsnowfreak
    Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol. Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches.
  6. michsnowfreak
    33 at DTW this morning. 27 at Ann Arbor.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Snow fell for several hours overnight. So both May 1 & 2 had a T of snow.
  8. michsnowfreak
    A bit of snow is falling tonight. This is the 5th year since 2016 to see May snow. Chuck called a cool May 2 months ago.
  9. michsnowfreak
    Snow mixed with rain here. In recent years it has snowed in May in 2026, 2023, 2021, 2020, & 2016.
  10. michsnowfreak
    Do you have a list of years?
  11. michsnowfreak
    I dont really follow on Twitter too much. I mostly follow on here (this early on at least) and obviously several on here DO have an inherent warm bias. But once we get closer to Fall and I follow more closely, one of the first things I look for is the input from those who dont have a bias either way.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Strong Ninos are still generally the worst-case scenario for winter here, but again, we still get winter. Ironically, the strong Nino you guys would pick out of the big guns would probably be 1982-83, and that was the worst one here. Each still has different patterns, some big storms, and often decent spells of winter....its just the mean over the whole season is subpar relative to climate. The east is more feast/famine. The Great Lakes always save us to an extent. Even in the worst case scenarios we get plenty of mood flake days to feel like winter. Detroit and Boston average near identical seasonal snowfall. In the past 50 years....both places averaged 44". Yet, look at the top and bottom 5 in those 50 years at each location. Detroit Boston 20.0” – 1982-83 9.3” – 2011-12 23.4” – 1997-98 9.8” – 2023-24 23.5” – 2023-24 12.4” – 2022-23 23.7” – 1999-00 12.7” – 1979-80 24.1” – 2003-04 14.9” – 1994-95 94.9” – 2013-14 110.6” – 2014-15 74.0” – 1981-82 107.6” – 1995-96 71.7” – 2007-08 96.3” – 1993-94 69.1” – 2010-11 86.6” – 2004-05 65.7” – 2008-09 85.1” – 1977-78
  13. michsnowfreak
    Its my understanding that the pre-1950 ENSO years are more subject to debate re: strength, but still cool to see which years were which. 2002-03 was another cold moderate Nino. 2009-10 was funky but cold in spots. And several others hovered near climo temp-wise.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.
  15. michsnowfreak
    So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.
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