michsnowfreak

If you scroll down. You will see 2m first and then surface. They are always different. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

Is there a scale for colors and departures? Also, why do the 2m and surface temp maps differ so much? I always considered them one in the same.

Heres a fun one for the Chicago peeps. Those dustbowl winters of the 1930s were full of bare ground then the occasional big blizzard. In the winter of 1930-31, Chicago did not exceed 1-inch snow depth ALL season long...until a 16-inch snowstorm hit March 7-8.

At 45F as of 2pm, today will easily be the warmest day of January at DTW. Snow depth is down to a T at 7am, the first T depth at 7am since Jan 10th. The last day with 0 depth was Jan 2nd.

Of those top least, 1961-62 (the 1st) is the only one that seems sketch, the other ones were all known to be low snow winters in much of the region. The only thing I can say about 1961-62 is that it was a very low snow season thru Jan here, but then a snowy Feb saved it (at Detroit, 15.7" of the seasons 28.1" fell in Feb). I suppose its possible that Hamilton shared in the slow Dec/Jan but then missed out on the snowy Feb, but id think some M data is more likely.

Well, any given year a futility record is unlikely. Meaning the all time lowest snowfall, because it a 1 in 100-150 shot (depending on the record length). Top 20 is another story, but usually when I hear someone talk about futility I assume they mean all time #1. And when you live in a place where it snows through April, its hard to discuss that in January not knowing the pattern the next several months. How far back do Hamilton records go? I bookmarked the link because its so hard for me to find Canadian records/data lol. Looking at Detroits snow data, which goes back 145 years, of the top 20, I have experienced 7 of the top 15 snowiest winters on record, and the worst I have experienced is the 16th least snowy. #1 all time snowiest winter (2013-14) #5 snowiest winter (2007-08) #6 snowiest winter (2010-11) #10 snowiest winter (2008-09) #11 snowiest winter (2004-05) #14 snowiest winter (2017-18) #15 snowiest winter (2002-03) ***** #16 least snowy winter (1997-98) #18 least snowy winter (2023-24) #19 least snowy winter (1999-00) #20 least snowy winter (2003-04)

Short lived? Pretty much the entire month of January was cold, save for a few days. The first half of December was cold too. There has definitely NOT been a lack of cold this winter season, nor has their been a surplus of rain, outside of a rainy week in late Dec. Sometimes a cold pattern just does not sync with the storminess we want. In fact, this type of winter was more common 100 years ago than it is now. Likewise, some years that are dominated by a mild pattern luck out with snowstorms every chance you get (see 2022-23 for example, a terrible winter pattern yet multiple nice winter storms). The outlook for Feb per most is very up and down, theres very much potential with our region in the battlezone (if you believe projections/ensembles/etc).

Obviously the Great Lakes are a different climate than the east coast, but im noticing the cold vs snow thing, especially this year since its been such a cold January with very little snow (in the north) outside the lakes. Weve done ok in SE MI- snow has been below avg and precip well below avg, but we have had some snow on the ground nearly all month. But west of the lakes (Chicago, Minneapolis, Green Bay, etc) its been frozen dry ground. I have no problem with people liking what they like, but im definitely finding some weenies contradicting themselves locally. All the complaining about recent mild winters...but really, in the post 2007-15 record snow era, snowfall has been largely around avg here before last winter. So I have to say to them, if all you care about is snow thats fine, but then you need to give those mild winters more credit and less bitching lol. (again im talking about the masses...I personally love snow AND cold).

Lake MI is a defining characteristic of our climate. Not just for lake effect flakes, but for how it affects minor clippers/other disturbances as they cross. As frustrating as a zzz pattern is, its great to see all the mood flakes. Going over this seasons snowfall, 14.1" to date at DTW, much of it was lake effect or enhanced, but the largest snowfall (3.7" on Jan 10/11) was purely synoptic. January saw snow fall on 26 of the first 29 days, even though the total on the month is 8.7". We definitely squeezed the most of the light amounts of snow, having some amount of snow on the ground (T-4") pretty much all month, so I dont want to hear any complaints about "stat padding" snowfalls that melt quickly in Mar or Apr This winter has definitely been different. There are a few of us who enjoy the cold/white even tho its dry, but definitely seems to be a lot are about snow only (not cold). Thats certainly fine, but then really, outside of last winter, SE MI has nothing to complain about (the post record snow era of 2007-15 has largely seen average snowfall).

I actually think of this everytime someone prematurely mentions futility. Any time someone is discussing futility for a location before late April, its being compared to past seasons that have already happened, in full. Multiple times in past years there have been some unthinkably low snowfall totals til a March snowstorm hits. I know in my lifetime Ive never seen anything close to futility for Detroit. We need EVERYTHING to go completely wrong AND the lakes to shutoff.

Depends what you mean area wide snowfall. You're never going to get a snowfall that hits the entire subforum. We have had area wide snowfalls in southern MI so far (obviously nothing heavy). Going forward the pattern looks more active in Feb, so where storm tracks/baroclinic zones set up will be telling as to who gets some fun, but that is something with little skill more than a few days out.

Nope. Some on here were calling for a warm Jan, yet the conus is experiencing its coldest January since 1988. And fwiw, ensembles did show well above avg 850s for the upper/western midwest tmrw going back over a week. Here in Detroit yesterday was our first 40 of the month. Jan has had a light snowcover nearly all month, frequent but light dry snowfalls, and precip has been well below avg. Also there's been little roller coaster in temps (just mostly cold). That's literally as un-nina-like as you can get lol.

DTW made it to 43 today. Snowcover is down to patches and piles. After having snow on the ground for a while, even though not deep, seeing all the grass has that weird look. Oh, and gross too

You guys and these OP runs

Re: the 1936-37 winter, while it appears Moline had some missing data, it was a remarkably putrid winter for many. It holds the record as the least snowiest winter on record for both Detroit (12.9") and Boston (9.0"), and 3rd least snowy winter for Chicago (12.0"). Also, for Detroit, with only 10 days of 1"+ snowcover, it ranks as the "barest" winter since 1908 (snowcover data for me is missing a lot of data pre-1908).