michsnowfreak

No one, literally no one, is NOT saying winter will be warmer than normal. However, it diverges after that with some of the clown "predictions" we have seen. Take an outrageously anamolous month like Dec 2015 then extrapolate a "decade of warming" on top of it . The funny thing is, if you use a regression line for the past decade of winters here, they have COOLED 1.9°. Of course, a mild '16-17 & cold '25-26 play big into that, but using a regression line from point A to point B is literally THE favorite tool of a certain group (with point A always being 1970).

Thanks. Im actually loving all this calm weather. NO better time of year to have it.

Peak colors in metro Detroit. Went walking at a nice park yesterday.

I will make sure to bump this!

An average NYC December would be +27.3F at INL lol

Often a Thanksgiving cold shot works out when the first half of November is warm. So hopefully that is the case this year as well.

Any warm winter month has snow/snowstorm chances here, so its always a wait and see even in the worst months. But Christmas 1982 lives in infamy here, it was 64F at DTW. My mom remembers being super hot at midnight mass (pregnant with me).

Not here...thank goodness! I notice all the snowfall maps are the models interpretation at a 10-1 ratio. The last two winters here had almost all powder. Even assuming more wet snow this winter, its not a bad look at all.

November in any winter is always a crapshoot regardless of enso. But its highly likely that at least one blast of winter weather will hit (at least the Great Lakes). So in this case, im fine with a mild start to November. No guarantees but it betters the odds of a cold shot around Thanksgiving. November is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st to last day of the month.

Ironically it continues to warm November and cool December.

Ill take the easy under on multiple days in the 70s in Jan/Feb and the easy over on zero snow.

I look at it with expectations. I love cold and snow. And im fortunate to live where even in the warmest winters, there is cold and snow. So having a grasp and good bit of knowledge about what to expect for the coming winter before it even begins is a huge help because it helps set expectations. When the pattern looks good, i set expectations high. I thought last year was a great winter because it was cold and white. Nearly nonstop cold and snowcover so outdoor winter activities could be done whenever I wanted. Want to wait til next week to take the nephews sledding? No worry, snow isnt going anywhere. This winter is a strong Nino. I know that means when the final numbers are tallied, its going to be a subpar winter. Expectations set. Will have to savor the snow/cold more than normal when its here. But I certainly dont know the details. So daily discussion/updates in this thread, as we head through benign weather amid gorgeous Fall colors, is nice to read as we get closer and closer to winter. When these unrealistic troll comments appear, its not that they worry me (or any other snowlover) like "oooh what if theyre right?", because we know theyre not. Its more of an annoyance, kind of like, we are all adults with a hobby in common, why the hell cant we just have adult conversation!?

The nonstop sunny days with the autumn foliage are putting on a nonstop show. Was in northern lower MI for a few days. Took the Skybrige at Boyne Mountain. Absolutely incredible.

Its ridiculous. Its also ridiculous that every single post that so much as mentions seasonal variability, weather patterns, it will snow etc, needs to be prefaced with the repetitious "we know it will be a mild winter overall" or the the favorite "an unfavorable pattern most of the time". That shouldn't be necessary to repeat every single time. Ive said it before and ill say it again. It isnt snow weenies- who long ago set their expectations for a subpar winter '26-27- that will be disappointed come spring. Its the trolls, few but very vocal, who actually believe in the snowless warm winter that would defy all logic which they are touting. They go far too warm/snowless every winter regardless of the signs, so a super nino is all that was needed to release the insanity.

Last year was 39.5". Thats slightly below normal, I have no qualms about last winter with excellent snowcover and cold. I enjoyed it more than winters that saw more snow but milder weather and less snowcover. It was on track for above avg snowfall as well, until a no show march. (Works both ways, a big march snowstorm that fluffed up the season total wouldn't save an otherwise bare mild winter). I wasnt trying to soften the blow. Literally just googled strong nino years lol. And im not wishcasting, believe me a milder than avg winter with 30" of snow is not on my wishlist. But its what I see as a realistic shot. We wont know til April. But I will say this. If we end up below 25" id say some bad luck was involved, and if we end up above 35" ill say some good luck was involved.