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michsnowfreak

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About michsnowfreak

  • Birthday 05/08/1983

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDTW
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    Wyandotte, Michigan

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  1. michsnowfreak
    1877-78 was certainly a mild winter region-wide, but the core of the anomalies were in the far upper midwest (ie: MN). Detroit had a 14.8" snowstorm on Jan 31st. Season snowfall totaled 43.4". December and March were very warm, but Jan/Feb only a bit milder than normal and with plenty of winter weather. Locally there were several shittier winters of that era. I wish someone would do a study on the insane weather patterns that gripped this region for nearly a decade worth of winters. The rubber band snap every other year was incredible, unlike anything in the climate record. But it was so long ago, its never mentioned. 8 straight winters from 1874-82, and each winter STILL resides in Detroits top 20 warm/cold winters on record. 1874-75: 2nd coldest 1875-76: 19th warmest 1876-77: 19th coldest 1877-78: 16th warmest 1878-79: 14th coldest 1879-80: 12th warmest 1880-81: 13th coldest 1881-82: 1st warmest
  2. michsnowfreak
    This x10000. The uniqueness of having record breaking warmth on Christmas Day, such as we had in 1982, helps it live on in memories of all who experienced it. Do you remember a random 60-65F day if it was on Dec 11th or Jan 10th? No. But if its on Dec 25th...yes. Also, that winter was extraordinarily snowless here, and bad luck certainly played a roll. After the December warmth, January/February had plenty of days cold enough for snow (tho they were both mild in the mean), it was just dry dry dry. 1982-83 was well on its way to all-time futility until a 7.3" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring, and another 3.4" snow in mid-April, screwed it.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Its going to be a COMPLETELY different winter than the last few. Last winter was deep winter. It ended on the AWSI index as severe bordering extreme due to the cold and snowcover. Winter is more than the final snow number. The sustained cold is the reason we didnt get more snowfall. This coming winter it goes without saying will be milder and with less snowcover. However despite the possibly record strong Nino, there are numerous signs that it will be colder than some of the other big strong Ninos (not going to get into a long discussion, thats in the main forum enso thread). Plus in milder winters, often there are some good dynamic wet snowstorms. In addition, strong/super Ninos are much wetter than the traditional "dry" look of El Nino. More than likely it will come down to precip. Every winter we hear futility talk but a sub-20" winter hasnt happened since 1968-69. There have been 10 sub-20" winters in 152 years. Anythings possible but the bottom 6% is a big call. It would be like having confidence in a 65"+ winter. Still too far out tho, other than thoughts. Hoping for a nice, colorful Fall.
  4. michsnowfreak
    Ive been reading the enso thread on the main forum. Definitely expect the mean to be milder than avg but should have plenty of wintry opportunities.
  5. michsnowfreak
    Its not just the Euro. The CANSIPS has been unwavering with a likely too-cold look. And the CFS with its daily changes hasnt gone bonkers with warmth either and has stayed hell bent on a cold most-of-the-country look in Feb-Mar (except the far north, which is a moot point for snow lovers that far north). Im not making ANY forecast, Im just saying its not April or May anymore. Its now August, and the same models that ARE showing a record strong El Nino ARE NOT showing a record warm winter. Nor are they getting warmer as we get closer. If it was the opposite and all models showed it unexpectedly warm, say historic warm (since we already expect a warm look in a strong nino)....the SAME people dismissing these models now would be analyzing them verbatim.
  6. michsnowfreak
    For your area and mine its literally impossible. For a place like NYC or Philly its POSSIBLE but EXTREMELY unlikely. How winters like 1972-73 or 1997-98 happened are insane to even think about. Even in a terrible pattern, "bad luck" has to be involved too. A milder than avg winter is obviously the go-to choice. But in the end, the Nino will be historic, the winter will likely be supbar but not historic. The warmest winter on record for Detroit is 1881-82 with a mean temp 36.9F, which is +8.5F against the current average. The least snowy is 12.9" in 1936-37, which is -32.1" against the current average. In my lifetime theres never been a winter under 20". Raindance drew a map a bit back that had Detroit at +4F with 31" of snow. Thats honestly not a bad guess at all at this early stage imo.
  7. michsnowfreak
    The east coast is naturally more feast/famine and a much warmer climate to begin with from NYC south. But if the much wetter than avg conditions that all guidance shows for the coast comes to fruition, youd have to imagine the odds of having a good snowstorm or two are quite high.
  8. michsnowfreak
    I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really. I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).
  9. michsnowfreak
    Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.
  10. michsnowfreak
    People always focus on a total anamoly too much as well, warm or cold. Do you know how long a winter season is and how many fronts, systems, etc will be occurring during the season? Even if someone nailed a forecast seasonal anamoly, theres no way to tell whats going to happen with the actual weather.
  11. michsnowfreak
    1951-80 stable? By stable you mean coldest because it had the abnormally cold 1960s and especially 1970s? The 1950s were way warmer than the 1970s, so i dont see how that's "stable". How about we just use 1931-60 normals.
  12. michsnowfreak
    You know the drill lol. The summer of 1987 through July 31st was hotter at Detroit than the summer of 2026. Since winter all we hear about is the conus avg. Forget regional weather patterns or local weather. Its wild that weather, on a weather board, is now constantly overshadowed by a singular average temp for the United States.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Some assume theres some linear connection with the strength of nino and how warm it will be and simply ignore everything else.
  14. michsnowfreak
    97-98 wasnt the disaster here that it was on the east coast, but it was one of the last strong Ninos Id pick, only '82-83 was worse. Interesting about '97-98 is that it was front-loaded and Feb was a shutout. mid Nov to mid Dec was actually decent. So was the 2nd half of Jan. Everything else sucked. Shittiest strong Ninos locally: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24 Best strong Ninos locally: 1877-78, 1972-73, 2015-16 At Detroit, the least snowy strong Nino is 1982-83 with 20.0" and the snowiest 45.0" in 1972-73.
  15. michsnowfreak
    My sister was born July 18, 1991. I was 8 years old and I remember how brutally hot and humid it was. My mom always talks about how it was so hot when she was born.
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