michsnowfreak

I think thats a reasonable take. Especially for the coast, its not like December is prime winter normally anyway, much less in a strong nino. @roardog @LakePaste25 and other Great Lakers. @40/70 Benchmark i know you dont forecast for the Lakes. I dont "forecast" at all but with all the discussion to date I can envision the season playing out something like this in SE MI- we get a good winter blast in mid or late November (hopefully Thanksgiving time) with well below avg temps and snow (probably synoptic and lake- watch out lake belts). Then December sees that late Fall vibe return. Not "warm", but more murky mild and Novembery. It will snow, but with the mild days handily outnumbering the cold ones will need some luck and good timing or else Decembers wintry opportunities may be limited to mood flakes and snow squalls. January and February is when its game on but we will have two different scenarios to worry about. Scenario 1- the warmer strong nino outcome. More mild days. This also increases our odds bigtime of those dynamic wet snowstorms (think Jan/Mar 2023). But with those odds you still have to worry about storm track, plus you lose a lot of the daily mood flakes/light snows you get most winters. Scenario 2- the colder outcome models hint at. This is good for a more traditional winter feel, but too much of this could be cold and dry (moreso MI and west, not so much LakePaste territory). Winters like 1957-58 & 1965-66 that east coasters salivate over were boring as hell here, cold and dry with very light snowfall. We did at least have a light 1-3" snowcover each time for all the cold, but id imagine id be pulling my hair out as multiple storms hit the east. (Closest ive come to that was 1995-96 but even that was better than '58 or '66). Personally I dont think its happening, at least to that extent. If the cold wins, I think we see much more snow than '58 or '66 (not necessarily above avg, just more than those pitiful years). We've had two winters in a row where snowcover and cold "outpaced" snowfall, cant imagine 3 in a row. March- most of us are well overdue for a good March and early outlooks agree. I expect a good snowstorm this month. And if the rest of winter is lighter on snowfall, I can almost guarantee it.

Speaking of your thoughts/expectactions lol. I noticed you've been repeatedly mentioning a warm December. Which seems a good bet based on everything from model forecasts to big support from strong nino climo. Are you going prohibitively warm/torch or just mild?

I hate when the media does that. Especially for areas such as the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast. Its actually fascinating to see how much of the world does NOT get to enjoy the extremes of both winter and summer like we do. Really if you like seasonal extremes, its a great place to live. Our griping, complaining, worrying or excitement based on what local weather lies ahead is our personal comparison to our climo that were used to. I have a friend in the UK and she would freak at how cold she would be in our warmest winter on record or how hot shed be in our coldest summer on record.

I hate that too. I hate heat but if its going to be hot id much rather see a good heatwave challenge some daytime high records rather than a swampy 88-92 with warm tropical low temps bringing up the departure.

It was wintry here, excellent thick ice cover on lakes and persistent snowcover. But actual snowfall wasnt impressive - BECAUSE of the cold, many storms tracked south. In fact, Detroit (39.5") received less snow than NYC (43.4") for just the 2nd time the past 20 years. Snow was in the air and on the ground near constantly though, so A+ scenary wise. Despite the slightly below avg snowfall, the winter ranked as "Severe" on the AWSI, a testament to the deep cold and lasting snowpack. It was one of those winters that the public perceived as harsh. My mom (a fellow winter lover) loved how every night looking out at her backyard the snow shimmered like a million diamonds. At NYC, the 43 days of 1"+ snowcover ranked 17th most since 1912. So, 115 years, 16 years had more snowcover and 98 years had less (so much for there always being snow on the ground when old timers were kids ). At Detroit, the 63 days with 1"+ snowcover ranked 28th most since 1908. Moving into this Nino, these are great examples why the snow-lover in me doesnt always want to see a deep blue map. So many moving parts for the coming winter, which is why I follow this thread with such interest. I do expect an overall subpar winter by MI standards, but theres so many different ways that could (or could not) happen.

Same for Detroit. 3rd coldest for that period, behind those same 2 years. Thats also the coldest time of the year on record climatologically, so extra impressive. 8.7F – 1895 10.1F – 1936 12.3F – 2026 12.6F – 1899 12.9F – 1918

I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15. In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.

I believe that was the case in Feb 2015. I don't remember who, but someone had a meltdown with the historic cold because it was warm elsewhere in the globe, saying this is the worst thing for Americans who mock cc.

I thought i was reading backwards. "Poor guy" . HE was a complete dick, not the other way around.

This is the time of year when I get impatient for Fall. So over summer.

All this concentration on Winter but Fall comes first. Fall is one of my favorite times of the year. October in MI is amazing so I'm hoping it is mostly dry, cool and sunny.

Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.

Good job on identifying and addressing your issue! Hopefully he does the same.

The only one who doesnt deserve respect is you. The biggest troll on the board who adds NOTHING about science, weather, or anything other than trolling. I wasnt referring to myself - I rarely responded to snowman. Everyone else who did got his vitriol, tantrums and insults.

I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me.