michsnowfreak

November in any winter is always a crapshoot regardless of enso. But its highly likely that at least one blast of winter weather will hit (at least the Great Lakes). So in this case, im fine with a mild start to November. No guarantees but it betters the odds of a cold shot around Thanksgiving. November is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st to last day of the month.

Ironically it continues to warm November and cool December.

Ill take the easy under on multiple days in the 70s in Jan/Feb and the easy over on zero snow.

I look at it with expectations. I love cold and snow. And im fortunate to live where even in the warmest winters, there is cold and snow. So having a grasp and good bit of knowledge about what to expect for the coming winter before it even begins is a huge help because it helps set expectations. When the pattern looks good, i set expectations high. I thought last year was a great winter because it was cold and white. Nearly nonstop cold and snowcover so outdoor winter activities could be done whenever I wanted. Want to wait til next week to take the nephews sledding? No worry, snow isnt going anywhere. This winter is a strong Nino. I know that means when the final numbers are tallied, its going to be a subpar winter. Expectations set. Will have to savor the snow/cold more than normal when its here. But I certainly dont know the details. So daily discussion/updates in this thread, as we head through benign weather amid gorgeous Fall colors, is nice to read as we get closer and closer to winter. When these unrealistic troll comments appear, its not that they worry me (or any other snowlover) like "oooh what if theyre right?", because we know theyre not. Its more of an annoyance, kind of like, we are all adults with a hobby in common, why the hell cant we just have adult conversation!?

The nonstop sunny days with the autumn foliage are putting on a nonstop show. Was in northern lower MI for a few days. Took the Skybrige at Boyne Mountain. Absolutely incredible.

Its ridiculous. Its also ridiculous that every single post that so much as mentions seasonal variability, weather patterns, it will snow etc, needs to be prefaced with the repetitious "we know it will be a mild winter overall" or the the favorite "an unfavorable pattern most of the time". That shouldn't be necessary to repeat every single time. Ive said it before and ill say it again. It isnt snow weenies- who long ago set their expectations for a subpar winter '26-27- that will be disappointed come spring. Its the trolls, few but very vocal, who actually believe in the snowless warm winter that would defy all logic which they are touting. They go far too warm/snowless every winter regardless of the signs, so a super nino is all that was needed to release the insanity.

Last year was 39.5". Thats slightly below normal, I have no qualms about last winter with excellent snowcover and cold. I enjoyed it more than winters that saw more snow but milder weather and less snowcover. It was on track for above avg snowfall as well, until a no show march. (Works both ways, a big march snowstorm that fluffed up the season total wouldn't save an otherwise bare mild winter). I wasnt trying to soften the blow. Literally just googled strong nino years lol. And im not wishcasting, believe me a milder than avg winter with 30" of snow is not on my wishlist. But its what I see as a realistic shot. We wont know til April. But I will say this. If we end up below 25" id say some bad luck was involved, and if we end up above 35" ill say some good luck was involved.

Strong/super Ninos: 1877–1878: 43.4" 1965-66: 15.4" 1972-73: 45.0" 1982–1983: 20.0" 1991–1992: 43.5" 1997–1998: 23.4" 2015–2016: 35.3" 2023-24: 23.5" I expect below avg snow. I disagree about "background state of losing snow in recent years". Due to the snowy 2000s & 2010s, the current 1991-2020 yr avg snow is highest its ever been (45"). The longterm avg is 41". The dip in the 2020s is not at all unexpected. Look at the ebbs and flows since 1880. My comment was moreso aimed at those expecting no snow in northern locations. An absolute joke void of any meteorological reasoning. Last winter was a severe winter due to the cold/snowpack, with suppression being the problem why we didnt have above avg snow. If im throwing out a number for 2026-27, im guessing 30"-ish. The biggest wild card will be a big storm. Should be some big nino storms. They often hit the east coast, but have also hit us (1878, 1992). 2015-2016 had multiple big storms just north of Detroit.

Ohhh there will be lots of forecasts, and "forecasts", that will be fun to score. (And i too think the quoted forecast is too cold).

Hope your wrong on the weather, but congratulations!!!!

I mentioned in the enso thread on the main forum, but honestly, pretty much everyone in the north and east is expecting a subpar winter relative to their climo. So the expectations are set. However, there are a few trolls in that thread that say absolutely ridiculous things that are completely unrealistic wrt weather, and these things will be hilarious when people bump them in the spring. People need to kinda chill on these insane assumptions because its such a strong Nino, especially with some things not behaving as expected. Do I expect a milder and less snowy than avg winter? Yes. But thats as far as ill go.

The 1990s winters here were WARMER than winters of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 2000s and 2010s. Yes, the decade of the 1990s was colder than the intra decade block of 2016-2026. But actually the 90s still saw very slightly less snow than '16-26 too. And of course, there was a slew of mild to very mild winters in the 1930s-1950s. With the obsession some have with cc, lets not forget that weather also always has gone in cycles. When the snowy 2010s completed, the 1990s stood as the tamest winters here since the 1950s. So I get tired of the excuse that the nino of 97-98 was during some ice age climate lol. As for the old adage "its too cold to snow". Technically thats not true, however the cold is a very common contributor to suppression. Last winter was ranked a severe winter here due to its lasting cold and snowpack, but suppression absolutely stole our chance for above avg snowfall.

They updated the definition last winter: coping /ˈkōpiNG/- "When your warm winter freezes into a cold and snowy one, so you start to talk daily about the Western U.S. or elsewhere on the globe rather than the frozen landscape that is currently in your backyard".

It turned to snow here. Got 4". I remember the storm you are talking about. Jan was a torch after a cold snowy Dec 2005. Pretty much expecting a torch month this winter (likely December) so when you get some good snows in the torch month its a bonus, considering the snow season runs November to April. The whole "no snow" discussion is all trolling. Either that or absolutely NO concept of what Great Lakes and New England climate is.

Exactly. And remember departures are relative to average. The averages are way colder than the east coast. It can be in the + double digits and snow mid winter.