michsnowfreak

Funny thing is 2016-17 had a very good December. It was the rest of the winter that was mild.

In Michigan we get more winter than the east coast and we get it noticeably earlier. I would never be worried about a winter if I wasn't seeing lots of snow on models by the start of December. If anyone SERIOUSLY (and not trolling) is jumping off a ledge on the east coast in mid November...Just wow. Especially when so many have pointed out many good signs.

I know what youre saying. But honestly December looking pretty good. Haven't said that in years.

What was the approximate snowfall totals downtown/on the lakeshore? I know it had to be more than ORD.

December is looking good. The cold did not go poof, it just delayed a bit. As for the cutter going poof. I have a outdoor event Friday so im happy, I did not want rain. But I hope it's not a sign of things to come for winter.

It was surprisingly good for so far out, although the snow band in southern MI needed to be more south/east and into NW OH.

Ive been suspecting that for months for here in the Great Lakes, and im getting more confident now that we have hit mid November.

Do you have a link for these maps?

It was not record breaking here, however the 2.2" snowfall on November 9th was much earlier than avg (avg first measurable snow is Nov 17th and avg first 1"+ snowfall is Nov 30th) and the high temp of 31F on November 10th missed the record low max by 3F. Right around this time in 2019, record early heavy snow AND cold were occurring here.

2010-11 here: Nov: T, Dec: 9.2", Jan: 18.0", Feb: 31.8", Mar- 9.1", Apr- 1.3", total 69.4". A very solid wall to wall winter here.

Although it doesnt directly apply to the Great Lakes, I read your outlook and you did a fantastic job. You explained/laid out everything re: your thoughts on winter 2025-26.

I agree to a point. Some of the recent years with unusually wintry novembers followed by unusually tame Decembers was weird. To happen once, no biggie. But it happened multiple times. But then, sometimes you get slammed in January and February and forget about how December was meh. Especially since December is busy with Christmas activities and January and February are boring. All that said, I'm really hoping for a great December then when January starts we will worry about that. One month at a time.

The absolute lack of any warm signal in December from the Euro Weeklies day after day, especially in an era when longrange models often climo-correct themselves/lean warm, is a great sign. Im surprisingly in agreement with snowman in that it is textbook La Nina. Ive said it many times, historically December is a great winter month in a La Nina in the Great Lakes, and last December was on the mild side and very underwhelming, despite my having high hopes initially. Then again, Feb was cold, constant deep winter, another unusual month that didnt follow the La Nina textbook. Ill roll the dice and gamble on a cold, snowy December and worry about February when it gets here lol.

Thanks! Yes, thats a burning bush. Its not my house, i just thought it looked cool lol. While the Fall colors are past peak, there are a few hanging on and they created beautiful and unusual scenes this morning. We had 2.5" total, but the first half was very heavy, wet 4-1 ratio snow in the morning, some afternoon melting while still snowing, then more fluffy snow in the evening. The excitement of the first snow never gets old.

Snowed all day here in SE MI yesterday and throughout the Great Lakes. Mid 20s with wind chills in the teens this morning and a winter wonderland. Snow is falling in KY and TN today and record cold is plunging into the south with freeze warnings over the entire southeast and into Florida. It's not going to last, and the east will miss the brunt, but to already see type a large cold snap like this before mid November can't be a bad sign.