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About michsnowfreak

- Birthday 05/08/1983
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Website URL
http://www.facebook.com/josh.halasy
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KDTW
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Wyandotte, Michigan
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This is a trademark of climate for the east coast (particularly NYC south) and the Mid-Atlantic. Which is why I dont understand the panic from some over an expected milder than average mean over a 90 day period. Especially with the overwhelming signal for above avg precip in the east. It is different here in the Great Lakes. Big storms are usually in the 6-12" range but snow is much more frequent than the east coast. So my worry about a crummy winter is not that it wont snow- it will many times- its that in the end total snow, snowcover, and stretches of sustained/deep winter are almost always less than average in strong ninos. I imagine its similar in new England, and even though they do get massive noreasters, i cant imagine 1 storm would make or break their season as it would further down the coast. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Still looks ok for here. Ugly for NE. It will undoubtedly change one way or the other in October. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh. Do you have a link? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Heres euro. -
They confirmed a tornado in Lincoln Park, like 3 miles N of me. It was a brief EF-0. It was crazy driving through the area because it such a small area but the tree damage stood out like a sore thumb. There were scattered trees down everywhere but the lincoln park tornado the tree massacre was noticeable. This was the 2nd tornado in Lincoln Park this year, the other an EF-1 April 15th. Can never recall one so close.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This is an excellent point. Concentration on the seasonal mean is absolutely pointless for the individual weather events. Hell even the warmest winter of my lifetime, 2023-24, had a 10 day stretch of brutal winter weather. It can go both ways of course (a cold winter can be boring). But any weather enthusiast who is too preoccupied with a likely seasonal mean has done a disservice to his hobby that got him here in the first place. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter. -
Detroit had 10 days of 90F, looks like they just touched 90F today for the 11th day of the year.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2". -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My low mark is 21.5" in 2023-24. Looking at all the strong Ninos, snowfall ranged from 20-45" here. So a realistic early guess for a strong nino for me would be 30-35". Much less dependent on the boom or bust storm than you guys. -
Huge difference in climo between ORD & DCA tho
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Luck, good and bad, happens in pretty much all winters. Everytime you guys talk 82-83 i cringe because it was definitely the worst strong nino of the bunch here, but I also realize some bad luck was involved in January and February. The extremely uncharacteristic lack of snow here was likely an extra slap in the face coming off the very snowy 1981-82. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Perfectly stated. Ive noticed its very common with some to make winters of yesterday seem harsher than they were, winters of today seem less harsh than they are, and use all-time severe winters as baseline for "typical" cold. Its funny to see so much pushback by some in admitting last winter was cold. Mind you, this a winter expected to be very mild by these same folks. Since it was cold, all we hear is "it was record warm in the west" "this used to be the norm" (it did not) "it was colder in the 1970s" (who said it wasnt?) etc etc etc
