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About michsnowfreak

- Birthday 05/08/1983
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Website URL
http://www.facebook.com/josh.halasy
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KDTW
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Wyandotte, Michigan
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
But its not apples for apples. The sensible weather will not follow the same exact script. For instance, both 2015-16 & 2023-25 had more severe cold shots than 1997-98. Indeed 1997-98 was a very murky, gray winter so the lows were insane warm even during the colder stretches. Also, 1990s winters here were warmer than both 2000s and 2010s winters. Same at Buffalo (assuming thats near you). -
Love it! Ill be in Alaska
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Ignorance really is bliss with the trolls. -
Im not an ASOS fan either. Needs way more babysitting/calibrating than a traditional thermometer. And it still sucks with melting down dry snow. The old fashioned way is the best imo. My rain, snow, and liquid equivalent in snow are all done the traditional way.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There was a 3" snow Nov 14 and another 1.6" the 15th. I dont remember forecasts that long ago (I was young lol). Mid november to mid December, the 2nd half of january, and spurts of March were wintry. The rest sucked. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even though its clear who the trolls are, its a shocking lack of understanding how the actual weather works. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I would like to see this cold bias documented too. Bias would mean it regularly runs too warm/cold. Cansips was the only model close to the cold in the great lakes and northeast last winter. Does that mean every other model has a warm bias? -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We all know this but its alwags good to remind ourselves....even with very similar indices, an analog is an analog. The weather itself will always play out differently. -
I use https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Very easy to rank different variables, years, etc. Ive used it for years. Excellent resource.
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The usual cold spots in SE MI tanked this morning. 39F at Ann Arbor. With the cool mornings keeping the house cool and fresh, theres been no need for the AC in the afternoon. That will change tmrw or definitely Thursday. Regardless, why cant we have this low humidity all summer!
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83. -
Pretty pumped that after a coolish May ill be looking at a 10 day alaskan forecast with highs/lows in the upper 50s/upper 40s dominating. Really makes the summer more tolerable when you shorten the heat part.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
December 2015 was just a trainwreck but the rest of the winter wasnt bad here. There was actually a very scenic snowstorm Nov 21st then it was quiet snow-wise til early January. One of the hallmarks of strong ninos tends to be one real shitty month and the rest of the time ok. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its the primary key for how stormy/snowy winter will be. But you absolutely have to expect thaws/non-winter stretches in a strong nino. The snow season lasts Nov-Apr, so unlike last winter which was steady cold/white during DJF, you go into this winter knowing there will be interruptions and shitty spells but if you can settle into an active pattern, plenty of snow chances too. -
Spring finished tied w/ 1987 & 2000 for 8th warmest on record of 153 at Detroit. Naturally it was 100% due to March/April, as May finished cooler than avg. An about face from the 44th coldest winter.
