Shack

Hunkered down here in Macon, where my friend, the Euro, has me in the eye at 0900z. Hoping to walk outside around 5:00am and look up and see stars. (after picking my way around all the fallen trees) This whole, NHC Track-vs-Model Track has me really curious as to the final outcome. Only hours from it being at Latitude 33'45" and they're 80-90 miles apart. NHC still says slap-dab, downtown Atlanta is where the center passes. Most models have it closer to Athens. Either way I think lots of folks will be without power and, because I have my priorities right, have my generator fueled so my coffee maker will work in the morning:)

frank, Any idea of the mile marker? My place is on 106 just east of Scaly Mountain Outdoor Center. That's about 6 miles west of Highlands.

316, maybe the GFS and Euro are gonna be right..... 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260852 TCDAT4 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter, with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion now 015/10. The hurricane should accelerate north-northeastward during the next 24 h or so in the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer baroclinic trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley. This motion should bring the center of Helene to the coast of the Florida Big Bend region Thursday evening or early Friday morning. After landfall, Helene should turn northward and northwestward around the northeast and north side of the Tennessee Valley system. After 48 h, what is left of Helene should make a cyclonic loop as it merges with the baroclinic system. The latest track guidance has nudged a little to the northeast, especially near 36 h, and the portion of the new forecast track over Georgia and Tennessee has been moved a bit to the east.

Had the same thinking all day. "What's up with that track?," in that NHC has it centered waay west of what the big-boy models project. But, hoping that GFS et al, were right and the highest wind field stayed a little east(of me. Sorry, Augusta). What Boone said is likely spot-on. But, topic for another thread, how does a model initialize "stronger" when the data at onset of the model run is fed to into the program as "existing conditions?"

Firsts for everything, I guess. Spit out my Mountain Dew driving home this afternoon around 5:00 when I heard this: "The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bibb County," (Macon, GA) NHC still has track centered to the west of MCN by 50 miles, but looking at the HAFS-B, it takes the eye pretty much directly over us here in Macon. Guess I'll need to take my bloomers off the clothesline.

Looks like HPC has the track centered about 40 miles west of my home in Macon. That would put us in the windy side of things. GFS has the center east of us, Euro has it west.

Gorgeous morning sunrise. 46deg and breezy. I am at 4,500 feet atop Curtiss Mountain. That's just outside Highlands and a little northeast of Scaly. My daughter is marrying a truly good man today at the Rockwood Lodge, perched gloriously atop this little knob. Family from Macon, Georgia is here, as well as the grooms's folks from St. Louis. I am truly, full to the brim, today. Joy, favor, humbled. Macon has been our home but we have always felt a strong connection with these hills since my daughter was born and we first ventured up here to see her play in the snow one stormy January. Today offers a weather nerd's happy feelings of tracking a little front coming through this afternoon mixed with the reality that it may mean a soggy ceremony. Yes, we are doing this outdoors, today. But I am at peace, and my daughter, who shares my weather love, has just smiled and reminded me that she's always liked a good rainy afternoon, too. These pages have long been a fun place for me to read and occasionally post. I appreciate those of you who have long carried the board's conversations. Say a prayer for my daugher, Roxy, and her fiance', Ben today. And, for their mama's and daddy's. Shack

Under Severe Thunderstorm Warning. 1.5" hail signature headed my way......

Another good Tahoe-Area link to watch. Right now, the Snowcat and and a bobcat trying desperately to keep ahead of accumulations. https://portal.hdontap.com/s/embed/?stream=downhillDeck_tahoedonner&ratio=16:9

I see Donner is shut for the day. Hope you're having an epic trip. I would've liked to make it out. Gonna be one to remember, for sure. Post pics !

My daughter lives in St. Louis. Yesterday's high was 86deg and they set a record. Then, this morning , STL reported an overnight low of 26deg and "Light Snow" from 3:55a.m. until 4:55a.m. That's the definition of "weather-whiplash."

Snow for Larry. And, where's Metallic now? Snow in Waycross.

Four days ago at MCN the low was 16. Today, the high was 77. I'll take it.

NC folks: GFS still giving hope.....(yeah, I know)

Warner Robins AFB reporting sustained 40mph wind with gust to 68.