From sterling this morning....
Forecast confidence remains very low Tuesday into Wednesday. On the
synoptic scale, a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave
trough encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift
northeastward out of the base of the longwave trough and interact
with what should be a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East
Coast. Various sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance
have shown a large amount of spread with respect to what will ensue
with this system. Some solutions have shown large precipitation
totals, while others have shown little precipitation at all. Some
show snow, some show a wintry mix, and others show plain rain. As is
typical, temperatures look to be colder the further north and west
one goes, so those locations have a greater chance to experience
wintry precipitation if it were to occur. It`s still too early to
get into details at this point, but this system will be one to
monitor over the next several days, as it has at least a chance to
bring portions of the area their first wintry precipitation event of
the season.
