Jump to content

psuhoffman

Members
  • Posts

    24,316
  • Joined

  • Last visited

6 Followers

About psuhoffman

  • Birthday 08/01/1978

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Manchester, MD

Recent Profile Visitors

26,129 profile views
  1. Chuck pointed it out yesterday, I love seeing the cold anomalies centered in the TN valley. That’s our big snowstorm loading pattern look!
  2. It’s a really good pattern with ridiculous upside which is rare in a cold enso. The similarities to 1996 with the current look on guidance shows this perhaps has more upside that we would typically look for in a cold enso year but it’s important to remember we do get these high potential setups and they don’t come together and produce sometimes. Even if the pattern on guidance is legit we could strike out. But I’m encouraged. I don’t throw around 1996 lightly. Usually I dismiss the possibility of that kind of repeat pointing out just how much of an outlier it is. But I can’t ignore what’s staring us in the face and the potential that exists.
  3. That was my threshold that would make a better outcome “possible”. If you look at all the anomalous snowy cold enso years some are slightly negative, but none are in that -2 or -3 range we were hanging out in. At the time I said it I didn’t think there was much chance we would get anywhere near neutral by January but here we are.
  4. lol Im still cautious. Long way to go before we’re measuring anything. But most of what I do is just math. Playing probabilities. And the probabilities say -pdo cold enso years are likely to be garbage. But flukes happen. 1996 happened. 2014 happened. They aren’t the most likely outcome and you’ll lose betting on that outcome most often but they do happen. More likely than those level flukes one off storm flukes happen like Jan 2000 and Feb 2006. What I’m seeing opens the door to the possibility this is an anomaly year. That’s all. I’ll take my chances considering how things could look right now. Several years recently I was working on my “winters over” draft about now!
  5. Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close
  6. I will be tracking our incoming HECS on my fight home January 4th.
  7. Im less sure of the larger PDO cycle, but we don’t need a wholesale PDO flip we just need the current near record negative one to end. There are cycles within cycles of the PDO. Within the decades long larger cycles there are shorter spikes. We don’t need a crazy positive PDO. 2010 was neutral. 2014 was slightly negative. A lot of the snowy winters in the 60s were neutral or slightly negative. But we need the -2 to -3 dip within the longer -pdo to end. There is some regularity to these cycles too. The last 3 severe -pdo periods lasted 4-9 years. We’re now 5 years in so it could start to flip anytime now. But it might take a few more years.
  8. I agree to an extent but I do think there is an applicable lesson to be taken from what happened regarding the long range teases in both 2019 and 2024. In both cases the dominant long wave influence was a strongly -pdo pacific base state. In both cases the extended guidance wanted to quickly morph the pattern into a canonical look for the SSTs. Additionally NWP did a similar thing day 15+ in 2021 when a kind of hybrid pattern dominated yet at range the extended often wanted to resume a more canonical Nina look. I think guidance is over weighting enso SSTs at range. I don’t know the physics behind it but that seems too much a coincidence. But that isn’t necessarily what’s going on here. Actually guidance is bucking a standard weak cold enso look. Now that doesn’t mean it’s right. Maybe it’s wrong for a different reason now but I don’t think it’s doing the same thing as last year fwiw.
  9. Sorry it had to do that, I’m not back yet.
  10. I share the skepticism but ironically the pacific was in a more Nina base state last year than this one so far. I don’t know what it means. I think enso is decreasing in impact, especially when it’s weak or in contradiction with the pacific background state. But let me be clear, when I say I’m interested in that look, it’s with the notion maybe we get a window where we could get a snowstorm. A. Singular. One. I’m not suggesting 2010 or 1996 are walking through that door. I’m just hoping for a 2006 or 2000 here.
  11. In both 2019 and 2024 the epic blocking looks would start to degrade before getting inside day 10. Usually they were handing out around day 15-20 and occasionally would get inside day 15 but never inside day 10. If this look can survive a few more days without getting can kicked my interest will increase exponentially
  12. 100! What has my interest is that we might get a window where there is enough ridging up top that combined with the EPO actually increases our chances of a snowstorm. Enough that maybe we have a slight chance to buck the odds and get that one hit that can make a season. That's realistically all I am rooting for...yea we might eek our way to a few minor events, whatever...but honestly what will make or break this season is if we can get lucky, find a small window, and hit big one time.
×
×
  • Create New...