cleetussnow

Let's unpack that - low probability there is a biggie present in any form, yes; BUT there is one in the theatre. Rarest of all is for one to form in the first place, but we checked that box. But will the biggie be for the fish to shovel or upright hominids? That question is in the realm of 'normal' probability to ponder.

Tough sell. I'm below normal since November and at my seasonal average snowfall with 15" pack I can nearly walk on in late Jan, peak winter. Missing a super anomaly blizzard doesn't quite make the case. I'm all in on CC, but she's sitting this winter out in our region.

NY metro is the weakest forum of the 3 major ones. Like 5 or 6 regular mets.

I’ll give it to 0z. Tonight.

Ova

When was snowmageddon down there, 2010?

Yeah its pretty tightly wound- not sure the precip shield would be that tight though.

Improvement.

Maybe its wrong.

For us amateurs, I think posting what the 'perfect' scenario is against the current setup really helps illustrate what it takes from here. I'm looking for Jan 4 2018 as a possible analog

Out west looks similar - but the trough is positive tilt this time out - I posted approx the same time frames on the current 06z GFS 500 and the verified '96 500 vort.

Jan 2018 vibe totally, and that did throw decent snow back to the Hudson valley. Stowe was -30. we went skiing anyway.