Powerball

True. Though just as much blame goes to MKE / LOT. Watches are issued in coordination with local WFOs...

Setup's even messier than I imagined a couple days ago. The evolution of convection is going to be wild today...

Messy setup.

It ended up being largely a nothingburger for Michigan any way, outside a narrow corridor from the Tri-Cities to Lake St. Clair. Instability, low-level moisture and shear were sufficient, but the nebulous forcing wasn't enough to overcome the residual cap and the dry air advecting in aloft. Kind of unfortunate, because I'm sure meaningful rain would have been nice for the Detroit area after the past few days..

Pretty large enhanced risk area stretching back into NE OH tomorrow, on top of the broader slight risk area for MI / IN and the rest of OH. Seems to be some question as whether the pre-frontal trough vs. actual cold front will be the focus point though...

Kind of funny that the COD website was up and running before the official site.

Looks like the smoke's going to stick around for Detroit much of the day on Friday as well...

I'm guessing there will be a lag with the live maps updating (they're still not working).

Gotta love how the satellite's out of commission indefinitely the one day it's needed especially bad, lol...

Fun times in Detroit. Strong to severe cap busters on top of wildfire smoke...

The HRRR *has* backed off on the visibility restrictions for the southern half of MI, so there's that...

Really surprised at how well the dewpoints held up despite the NW flow and deep subsidence.

Yes to downsloping.

On the plus side, that might be enough to hold temps down on Thursday...

Oof...