Bob Chill

Downstream effects of the storm that hits between the 31st-2nd is the catalyst to getting the upper levels right for colder souther tracks. Gotta wait for full resolve of that feature before really knowing anything down the line. It's going to get cold and favorable down the line. That seems very likely now. Individual impulses down the line aren't really predictable in any way yet. The way I look at things, the evidence of active flow beyond the 1st is good enough for me. What when and how is still shotgun mode. Won't be long before we know which fail scenario seems most likely lolol.

Imo only (and @psuhoffmanmentioned something similar), expected results based on enso climo aren't working anymore. It started after 2016 and hasn't really stopped lol. Since extended products rely heavily on long term enso climo, they have deemed themselves unreliable in all directions. Sometimes they nail it but there's been a lot of dandruff piling up from all the collective head scratching lol. When I did my wagging in October, I had been thinking about this a lot. For a couple years really. That's the primary reason I went against the grain. Not because I'm smarter than weather lol. It just made a lot of sense in the thought computer after being quite wrong for "weird" reasons last 3-5 years.

Kinda hard to identify windows/threats until the storm around nye/nyd that all guidance agrees on in some fashion moves through and down stream. Blocking is building before that but from what I see, that storm is what solidifies blocked flow. I've seen a lot of fantasy ops showing both a closed epo and nao ridge concurrently. Ens def support the idea centering the highest mean height in the same places but I honestly can't remember seeing dual features like that in real time. Will be fun to watch happen. These are the types of features that can run a cycle and not hit and run. My gut says it will be a cycle and it will probably run 30-45 days. Plenty of history there but gotta get started first before worrying about how long lol. I really don't see any chance of a storm before the 5th of Jan so I'm not going to get involved in any discrete talk unless it's mid range. I do see a storm window developing between the 5th-10th. Lots of little clues showing up and it fits how blocking cycles usually play out. You know.... rain then cold and dry then maybe a little sumpin sumpin. It's prime climo for flawed setups. Especially west tracks. With @ 50/50, cold highs don't run away. They just hang and rot. Perfect for CAD stuff. Get a good track and you have northerly mids feeding instead of southerlies scouring. We may fail in every direction but I've become pretty confident in some accum snow not too far away. We'll wait and see as always

I prefer Climax gradients. They're more fun and I live just north of it lol

Gotta chain up before the grade to Mt PSU or get a ticket bro

Once we get into Jan, thumps to dryslot/west track work here (and waaay down here hi!) without a -30 airmass needed in advance lol. While not ideal, who cares because ideal works less than a third of the time anyway. Even that might be a stretch too lolol. Imo only, if ensembles are right....., early Jan is a heater pattern for the MA. Doesn't mean big storm but small stuff in succession is the next best thing

I like everything I see right now but no cold and no snow (for nearly 3 years lol) makes bobchill go something something.... Imo- as depicted, it's not a dry pattern and sets up the gulf/TN Valley connection. Broad bowl shape trough with blocking. Has the 8:30am-2:30pm trajectory look to me. I'm not sure further north than say Philly should like this setup except for cold. Not a big storm look up north and 3-6" only makes SNE'ers angry, apparently lolol. It's also not a nina pattern. There has been minimal classic Nina stuff at all so far imo other than NS activity. NH flow hasn't followed the rules and continues to look like a rebel. Current ens guidance looks like a nino lol

Crossed my mind. The last minute ticket game is fun. Last game I went to was in a Corp box. I think Amgen. Some guy got 4 tickets for free at work and didn't want to pay taxes on the gift so he sold them for $300. There was a fully stocked bar/kitchen lol. Corp execs did show up but they didn't give a crap about why we were there. It was a blast. Never forget it. Wiz beat Brooklyn to cap it off lol

Surface temps aside, that height pattern in Canada that all ens are showing down the line is prob a shutout pattern. At least for me down here. The quicker we see the other side of that come into focus the better. On another note, I'll be in Bethesda for Xmas. Not all that jazzzed about returning to the fray but at least I know the local customs and my way around lol

Just spitballin but nino hangover is making things muddy imo. We need to work through the tug of war before worrying much beyond that. I personally expected Dec to provide few chances for snow. Really hard here for early season northern stream stuff in any enso setup. That said, we've had the ingredients flying around already and guidance says that isn't changing yet. Get enough chances and you can stumble drunk into something if you try hard enough lol. Imho, Jan will feature a "hammer period" with cold and snow but it will primarily be NS driven (stating obvious) so my gut says a chaotic take what you can get versus tracking an actual big storm pattern. So far things have been moving along pretty close to what I was thinking in the fall.

Sup

In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up. That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south. 95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol

This is the type of +tnh we need in Dec. Axis is broad. Has more of a bowl shape instead of a vase. I don't like vertical patterns much but CAPE has been on a heater with those later in the season lol. I say this often but the 8:30-2:30 trajectory with energy tracking thru the TN valley is a prime setup for us at any point in winter. Especially early. All this said, I hope the cfs is right for Jan.... 2014 vibes

Mixed enso signals are unsurprising. At least to me. Prob persist thru first half of met winter if I had to guess. The +tnh general idea is what I was hoping to see when I engaged in the fall. Doesn't mean easy snow lol but it does mean that cold air intrusions can support snow if everything else cooperates. Early season is pretty tuff tho. Carving target practice is already small strike zone at any point in winter. Cold chasing precip or trailing waves is more of a JFM thing in the closer burbs. If I see anything that looks like it could set up something more flush I'll jump in. Doesnt have to be fancy. Just need mids to be feeding from the north as precip approaches. In Dec, if the cold isn't feeding when it's precipitating, it gets really hard for lower/easter elevations to do much.

Seems like Dec is trying to show its hand but early season is always volatile. If the warm can truly gets kicked, confidence increases. So how does it snow? Probably something like the early Dec 2013 storm. A good fresh cold blast and a quick follower. Idk about the next 10 days. It could line up like that but we prob need a deeper carve in advance.