RU848789

Do people think this looks right? Seems overdone for me, especially at lower elevations...

It has some snow for areas mostly N of 80 on 4/8 in the map below; it also has some more snow on 4/12 for areas N of 84 and then even more on 4/18 for the Catskills/Berkshires and north. Assuming you want the first one that gives you a bit of snow.

Agree on all counts, hence my "lol." The only thing that gives at least a little credence that we could have a bit of snow in some places around then is the CPC's forecast for that period to be well below normal in temp.

Only 11 days out and it's not the GFS, lol...

Another virtual monster snowstorm on the 6Z GFS on 4/3. That's about 48" from the GFS over the last 2-3 weeks, lol. At least for this one the AIFS is showing 1-2" NW of 95, which could be plausible.

How fitting this would be for most of NYC Metro, lol...

Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z. It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing. There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time.

Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but...

What makes you think I am? I think I've made it clear that this is a very low probability event for 95, at least, but it's not a zero probability event, as snow is obviously possible in late March. Would need to see support from other models to start to be truly interested in this.

Some much needed rains...

12Z GFS still shows snow for Friday, which is not that far off. Of course, it's still alone showing snow south of 84 - would be amazing if somehow it's right.

Probably, but it's enough to keep you and a few hundred other desperate winter weather weenies hanging on for another few days, just like the threat for 3/25...

Great data, thanks! I like looking at max wind gusts, like this graphic, more than mean wind speeds, since I think people "feel" like it's windier than normal based on how often we have very gusty winds, whereas I don't think most are thinking about whether the mean wind speed is 12 mph or 10 mph over a month.

And this is only 4-5 days out on the GFS, with other models showing snow only further north during this time - and even the GFS ensemble showing that, too (indicating the Op is probably an outlier), but ya never know...

Surprised nobody posted these last night. Yes, it's still a longshot at 8-9 days out, but it's not impossible to have snow in late March and it's nice to see two models showing some snow.