RU848789

With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning. Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have.

The 132 year average is 25.4" while the 1990-2020 30-year average is 29.6". https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow

29.5" to date here in Metuchen. We've been very lucky this season relative to CPK on several storms.

I thought these streaks were temps at or below 32F, so streak wouldn't be over yet. Not that it really matters. If we get 2 days this week of 33 and 34 F and it then stays below 32F thru 2/10, that's still 18 days straight below 34F, which is still way below normal and just as impressive as the record of 16 days at or below 32F.

Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.

I don't usually look at the 10% low and high probability graphics, but this one shows the huge difference in snowfall for the 10% chance that the high scenario plays out - not surprising given how steep the snowfall gradient is from SE to NW, which might be why the NWS is showing the snowfall gradient over the ocean. The 10% low probability is a Blutarsky-esque 0.0" for everyone, as one might guess.

Thanks, but even if one takes the GFS, GEFS and EPS over the last 3 runs for Philly, for example, the average is about 1/2" and those models contribute ~60% to the NBM according to your post with the SREFs having 30% input - if that's the case to get from 1/2" for 60% of the input to the 4.8" seen for Philly on the latest NBM, that implies the SREFs would need to be 12+" for Philly at only 30% of the input, which seems impossible, as the SREF snowfall (10:1) from the last few runs has been in the 2-4" range for Philly, unless that snow is at 30-40:1 ratios (and Kuchera is showing 20:1 inland). But I will say I didn't realize the SREFs were counted so strongly and it at least explains probably half of the NBM numbers for inland locations.

Don - thanks, as always, although I'm assuming you meant to say that's a wholly unrealistic estimate, correct?

Don - you shared the table below of NBM snowfall inputs last week, but I simply can't imagine how the new NBM is more than the last run and how either of them could be right even with the wetter SREF inputs, as I think everything else should be near zero, except for low amounts from the EPS. And if it were just an academic question it might not be a big deal, but the NWS regularly refers to it in their AFDs, so clearly they use it, which I don't get. Any insight?

How does the NBM go up for the Philly-NJ-NYC region after every 12Z model was a whiff (other than the SREFs)?

Your failure is complete...

Oh well, the RGEM didn't move and the GFS got worse...

And a decent jump NW by the ICON. Ok, now I have to watch the rest of the 12Z suite, lol.

Fixed it thanks - read the right one, pasted the wrong one, lol. Same message though.

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in...