RU848789

Not sure I've ever seen a larger discrepancy between an Op and its ensemble mean (although the Op posted here is Kuchera, so it's likely inflated).

People do realize that making a thread on an "event" early has no bearing on how that event pans out, don't they? It only impacts how posters react to the outcome from that event. I like early threads, simply because it makes it easier to keep all the relevant posts on that event in one thread, as opposed to having them dispersed throughout other long range posts. Just my $0.02.

Nice increase on the EPS ensembles over the last 48 hours (thru the same end time). We're finally starting to see some snowstorms pop up and disappear, but that's better than nada we've had for awhile.

When almost every Op model and every ensemble mean for the past few days has been showing well below normal snowfall over the next 15 days for the 95 corridor (and even inland), despite what looks to be a more favorable pattern after the coming 4-5 day warm-up this week, it's hard to not be a bit concerned that the first 3 weeks in January will be well below normal in snowfall. Hopefully that changes soon.

Damn, missed it - we got 1/4" overnight. Was awake and watching TV most of the time it was snowing (12-3 am per the radar), but never looked outside or on-line, lol. With 1.0" the past 2 mornings, we're up to 11.2" for the season.

Ice? Was able to broom this light powdery snow off very easily.

Ended around 7:00 am with 0.75" otg at 26F as the temp dropped from 32F at the start - pretty amazing little squall line. Brings me to 11.0" on the season, which is a fantastic start. First is a pic at the height of the initial squall, followed by a pic after it was all over; will try to post a clip too...

Started at 5:45 am was light for a minute or two, then boom the wind kicked in and the snow got moderate to heavy for the next 10 min, then we had a 5 minute lull then another heavy band until about 6:30 am; lighter now, but not over looking at the radar; 0.6" so far. Gorgeous. Pics to come.

Squall warning up - looks like fun...

Snowing lightly now

Radar looks great, but it's virga, as no flakes yet...I'm at the intersection of 287 and the NJTPK, under 10-20 dBZ

NWS bumped up snowfall totals...

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means for snowfall through 1/13, 12Z, generally dropped a decent amount in the last 24 hours (except for the GEPS north of NYC and not because any snow was forecast to fall over the last 24 hrs), presumably reflecting the pattern not being quite as good for cold and snow as it was 24 hours ago. On today's 12Z ensembles through 1/13, 12Z, Edison, NJ (25 miles SW of CPK, whose numbers look wonky on these graphics) dropped from 4.0" to 2.0" on the EPS, it fell from 3.5" to 2.8" on the GEPS and it fell from 3.5" to 2.3" on the GEFS. Picking one more point, White Plains dropped from 4.5" to 2.8 on the EPS, it jumped from 3.7" to 4.8" on the GEPS (the only increase) and it fell from 4.3" to 3.0" on the GEFS. Given how far out these go, I'm not even going to attempt to explain any of this - just noting a modest to significant decrease for most of the 95 corridor at least over the last 24 hours.

At least half of that is 1/1, although I'd be happy with a fresh coating each day...

Figured that, was just musing. And yes, I had 2.4" here in Metuchen and I thought @Rtd208had ~3" in Carteret, NE of me by about 8 miles, which would make sense.