RU848789
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About RU848789
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With the Ft. Dix radar down, I missed the start of some light pixie dust snow (my wife saw it first, lol) and we now have a dusting on the ground. Would love to get at least 1/2".
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Last 3 HRRR runs show way less snow than earlier runs...hoping it's wrong...
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With no Ft Dix radar, anyone seeing snow?
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At least a B. It's silly that some are saying we haven't reached average snowfall for an entire winter, when the winter is barely half over - one has to grade on where we are now vs. where we should be now. The fact that we're well ahead of where we would normally be makes snowfall at least a B and an A- for me, since we got a little more lucky than CPK and have 29.5", which is our average for the winter, already.
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Found this, which goes back 90 years (not all the way back to the 1859 start of the NYC record) and shows about a 3.4F increase in 30-year temp averages since then. Obviously, that's part of why this year's "cold" D/J isn't as cold historically.
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Don - as always, love these posts, thanks. Any insight into how cold Dec/Jan were, historically speaking? Seems like probably in the coldest 30-40 D/J combos for NYC and much of the area off the top of my head, although maybe I'm biasing that based on how cold it's been since 1/23 and will likely be for the 3 weeks through 2/12. Too bad we had that warmup in early Jan.
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Easily, especially since the pack for most started with 1-2" otg from 1/17-18 and most of us got 1.5-1.9" frozen QPF on 1/25, even if it might've only been 11-12" in depth, since 3-4" of that was sleet for many. That's a lot of frozen QPF to melt (and not much of it has melted yet) and with temps only getting to around 40F late next week, I'd think most of the pack will still be here on 2/17, especially if we top it off tomorrow and a bit next week.
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NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+. I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.
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With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning. Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have.
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The 132 year average is 25.4" while the 1990-2020 30-year average is 29.6". https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow
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29.5" to date here in Metuchen. We've been very lucky this season relative to CPK on several storms.
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I thought these streaks were temps at or below 32F, so streak wouldn't be over yet. Not that it really matters. If we get 2 days this week of 33 and 34 F and it then stays below 32F thru 2/10, that's still 18 days straight below 34F, which is still way below normal and just as impressive as the record of 16 days at or below 32F.
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Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.
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I don't usually look at the 10% low and high probability graphics, but this one shows the huge difference in snowfall for the 10% chance that the high scenario plays out - not surprising given how steep the snowfall gradient is from SE to NW, which might be why the NWS is showing the snowfall gradient over the ocean. The 10% low probability is a Blutarsky-esque 0.0" for everyone, as one might guess.
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Thanks, but even if one takes the GFS, GEFS and EPS over the last 3 runs for Philly, for example, the average is about 1/2" and those models contribute ~60% to the NBM according to your post with the SREFs having 30% input - if that's the case to get from 1/2" for 60% of the input to the 4.8" seen for Philly on the latest NBM, that implies the SREFs would need to be 12+" for Philly at only 30% of the input, which seems impossible, as the SREF snowfall (10:1) from the last few runs has been in the 2-4" range for Philly, unless that snow is at 30-40:1 ratios (and Kuchera is showing 20:1 inland). But I will say I didn't realize the SREFs were counted so strongly and it at least explains probably half of the NBM numbers for inland locations.
