78Blizzard

Meteorological winter may be over March 1, but if the 18z GFS is right, the first 11 days of March are going to end up 9-10ºF BN.

Feb SSTs in Boston are at the lowest at this time since Feb 2015, so if we get some marginal situations in March we could do ok.

The 18z NAM still leaves a little hope. Much deeper system and much further nw than 12z GFS. Also, not chasing convection like GFS since it shows a consolidated system. Even if it heads eastward at some point, it should come further north before that happens. Hope is still alive.

Those holding out hope with the Ukie just saw those hopes dashed. There is little question that modeling 5 days out this winter has been atrocious. Hundreds of miles of movement from run to run in many cases. Anyone disputing that hasn't been paying attention.

I said some, not you specifically.

I like how some are hanging their hopes on the Ukie, where a month or so ago many couldn't find enough words to trash that model. It's all about which model produces the best outcome or the most snow.

More favorable trends tonight on the Euro for Sunday and day 10.

Both the Euro and the GFS 12z runs paint a cold 2 weeks ahead, well below normal, sun angle or not.

If dews are in the 50's, doesn't it follow that the temps are also?

Euro op is all alone with temps in the 50's in SNE. None of the other ops or ensembles are even close to that.

18z GFS showed the PV further west than at 12z, so obviously it moved closer to the Euro.

The EPS looks even worse than the op. That PV seems to be retrograding.

It's the Euro vs the world once again on the op.

The Euro is all alone in that day 12 depiction of the deep trough in the east with a big warmup here. None of the ensembles show that, and neither does the Euro-AI.