SnoSki14

Looks to be on par with the other snow event we got recently here aka 5-6" near Somerset.

This is why mets use a blend to create a forecast. There's always going to be outliers.

Biggest thing to watch out for is the warm nose. Could result in more sleet than people expect. Not sure exactly where that sets up yet.

Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter. Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance

So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction

One thing to note is that surface temps are really cold to start. Could be some high ratio snows and better than 10:1

Would be a bizarre outcome if it verified

Blocking looks really strong. GFS might be closer than you think

Very unusual setup for us. It's kind of a mix between a SWFE and Overrunning. Blocking looks really strong, you can see the shortwave get shredded as it comes east. But there's enough cold air and moisture in place before that happens for us

Grass is covered but it's mostly wet. 33F

Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong

I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us

Think this will favor SNE moreso than us but it's on the table.

I don't ever recall seeing a short term upgrade to a HWW, usually it's the opposite Wind events have definitely gotten more intense over the years

Not good for much more than a light snowfall