SnoSki14

Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess

I'll give what it shows tomorrow a lot more weight than tonight but it's great at picking up warm layers so we can't discount it

Yeah so much for suppression fears Trough out west was a big red flag for this.

I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam.

I guess we'll find out

Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol

Thump looks better actually

Really loving that early Feb period.

Yeah the pattern actually gets a lot better after our next storm. In fact the current pattern ain't that great, there's way too much troughiness out west (no wonder we're mixing) Kind of a miracle if we do get 8-10"+ amounts out of it

That's pretty darn good. What's the high end?

Out of curiosity does anyone have sleet/ZR totals from the Nam. Curious to see the ice outputs

The ridge placement out west for this storm wasn't ideal. MJO wasn't ideal either. There's a reason why big snowstorms are a rare commodity here especially in the CC era. Good news is pattern actually gets better after this storm. Better PNA and more favorable MJO

It's good for verifying mixing but only in the short range. It's not reliable beyond 36hrs

I hope Nam is wrong because this will be a nasty ice event here. Surface temps aren't budging away from the coast and will probably verify colder than models show.

WSW with 10-15" which is a bit high. I would've gone with 8-12" which is the model consensus but we'll see if those early ratios make up for it.