BNAwx
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About BNAwx
- Birthday 08/26/1972
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I don’t really understand their logic either. Even if the GEFS was correct, it appeared to me (when I checked a couple days ago) to have issues getting the amplitude through each phase correct. Basically, it was forecasting a higher amplitude than what actually verified. This is why I agree with you that other indices could easily take over. I haven’t checked today, but the EPO looked like it might be in our favor going forward. We know from years past that it CAN rule the roost in the right circumstances.
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That was a pretty big shift taken by models overnight…especially the GFS. I still think we’re tracking again by Valentines Day give or take a few days. At least I hope we are…
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Slightly off topic, but does anyone know of a source that provides MJO verification info/scores for ALL models? I’ve only been able to find verification scores for the GFS products.
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A warm up is expected, but I do believe we’ll see a return to colder as we approach mid-February (if not a tad sooner). Like many, I think February cold shots could be directed in a more central/western US manner and then spread eastward. Where the boundary sets up will depend on the strength of the SER. For kicks and giggles, I’m eyeing the Valentine’s Day period for a stalled front/overrunning setup. Seems like that Valentine’s Day timeframe has brought storm or rumors of storms the past few years.
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Not yet. Pretty dry so I’m expecting to see only flurries at best.
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I saw a few small flakes when I went out for lunch. We’ve been mostly overcast here with occasional breaks where some sun gets through.
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This seems to be one of those rare winters where it seems to find a way to stay chilly in our neck of the woods. Hope the Euro’s MJO forecast is right. It looks like a quick low amplitude run through the warm phases then into the COD. My gut feeling (and it isn’t worth much) says we’ll have several more chances at winter weather before we make the final break into Spring.
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This may be one of those rare winters where it just finds a way to lean cold in our neck of the woods. I’m sure the pattern breaks at some point, but finding a way to keep a trough in the east during the coldest time of the year would be awesome.
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Based on current modeling, do you guys think overcoming dry air will be a concern, or do you believe precip will be heavy enough to saturate the entire column? Nothing more frustrating than a virga storm…
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I’d hate for a miss to the north, but snow cover to the north and west of us might help with future systems if we can keep the favorable pattern in place.
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I was only 5 & 6 years old in ‘77 and ‘78 so I don’t remember much else than missing alot of school. I vividly remember ‘85. Got down to -22 in Cookeville. Our pipes froze and mom went under the house with a hairdryer to try and unfreeze them. It was so cold, the extension cord froze and broke into pieces. We relied on kerosene heaters at the time so not every room was warm. Thank the Lord for electric blankets back then….
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Yep. The Euro Ensembles look pretty impressive. Hard not to get a little excited when you see that kind of snow mean setting up.
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Your last sentence is dead on. Given the right pattern, our source region of cold can flip dramatically in a relatively short amount of time. And over the next few weeks, even slightly warmer than normal temperature anomalies in Canada would be pretty chilly in our neck of the woods…even factoring moderation. Besides, we don’t need to be well below normal in the heart of winter for it to snow around here.
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Need to bring this puppy back west a smidge.
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I wonder if the model mayhem this winter has been due to the constant pressure the strat PV has been under for what seems like the entirety of the winter season. This year just seemed anomalous to me in that regard but maybe it’s not as unusual as I think it’s been. One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter….
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