Eskimo Joe

I think we're at the point where that's all we'll get. It will take a significant alignment to get a warning level snowfall, and that'll be it for the winter. Just like 2016 - statistically it was an above average snowfall winter, but winter only lasted 5 days.

Yea its entire possible in the next decade we reset to 5"-10" regional snowfall climo. El Ninos will just become cold rain winter.

Death knell for widespread snow

Trigger Warning: I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Formerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain.

I'm at 5" seasonal total in NW Baltimore County. At this point, I'll be surprised if I exceed a foot for seasonal snowfall. Sure it's a La Nina, but the base state over the past decade seems to have become extremely hostile to snow south of Mason-Dixon.

12z Euro opens the polar ice box next week. Gimme.

Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event.

Paging @MillvilleWx, @wxmeddler, and @wxmvpete to see if they know.

Yes. Fun things happen with you have an upper level low closing off to your south.

Would advocate for storm mode inside of HR 48 and a heavily moderated thread.

Looks like Euro and GFS give everyone a 2"-4" event with localized 5" spots.

FWIW, 12z GEFS trended better for everyone. A lot of the complete whiffs or OTS misses are fading. Looking more likely that we get some kind of accumulating frozen from this first event.

Bonus for holiday weekend snow!

00z/06z Euro had that as well.

A lot of snow squall warnings on the Allegheny Front and Laurel Highlands. Maybe we get something this afternoon?