Eskimo Joe

IIRC, the Euro is often too late for the NBM. Still, a general 6" - 10" regionwide is solid.

Reminds me of a certain storm 30 years ago

Unable to post here because I'm dumb, but 72-hr mean snowfall for NBM now has the 6" line up in southern PA. 10" line runs through DC.

Yes 12z Thursday is my go/no suite for this event.

Trends have been great today, but still leaning in he @WxUSAF camp and weighing towards the ensembles until we get inside HR 84.

Big takeaway from the various 12z ensembles is that any overly amped solution that would lead to mixing or a changeover seems to have diminished.

WPC upping snowfall potential in the D5-D7 range. Their 18z update.

Posting base snowfall output gif for some comparison.

Pete's the best. I went to school with him and he was one of my heroes of forecasting. Always was able to spot things others would miss.

Thursday's model runs will be the make or break for guidance. Most of the players will be within the upper air network in North America, and I'd be my bottom dollar that NOAA will be running extra planes for data sampling.

That is a legitimate blizzard every day ending in 'y'.

Yes. That's my favorite setup. Snow just comes in like a wall and it doesn't stop. No wasting 4 hours on virga.

Cold, wetter, more phasing.

From what I can see, the real risk of ice/sleet is from EZF south to the Carolinas. I don't really see any truly suppressed members that have NOVA/DC/Baltimore smoking cirrus while the Carolinas win. It looks like the "worst case" is a moderate 4" - 6" event.