Eskimo Joe

Clear trend on the Euro to also weaken the primary low at the surface and aloft quicker. Probably stunts the mid level warming so quickly. I want to see more of that today into tomorrow.

IMO, it's rimmed snow, but that's snow.

Counties that border both sides of Mason-Dixon could push 14"+ per the 12z Euro.

Canadian kills the inland low off quick and has a better high. Good signs and it's been trending this way for several runs.

The 12z suite is good. If we can knock that warm layer down, then it would be a boom scenario wrt snowfall.

It's *possible* the warm nose might not be as bad, and it's oscillating right on the edge of flipping between snow and sleet.

Mt. Holly & Wakefield forecast for central and lower Delmarva

RE: snow:water ratio forecasting. Thought this would be a good book mark for folks.

FWIW, the 12z HRRR appears colder and holds the sleet line below I-66 through 12z/15z Sunday.

RE: Freezing rain risk. See the response from @wxmvpete

Big plus on the 12z NAM is that it appears to kill off the primary surface low quick, and further south.

00z GFS is the best case scenario. 8"-12" along I-95, 12"-16" immediate western suburbs. 16"+ west of US 15.

Through HR51, the surface high and subsequent CAD seems stronger on the 00z NAM.

Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.