Eskimo Joe

I really like the positioning of the west coast ridge and Alaskan trough as we head into November. That's a decent sign for winter.

RSTM2 COOP site - had my first sub 60 degree high of the autumn yesterday. Got down to 36 last night, yet somehow our hibiscus on the deck is still pumping out blooms.

Thank you for the info, IAD seems to be an ice box compared to the other climate sites.

Normal freeze date for IAD isn't until November, IIRC.

Nice! Got sounding data to post?

Eh, I'm not sold on that yet. If we get a cold December then I think you're on to something, but we seem to have this post Thanksgiving / early December torch every year the resets things.

Heartbreak if you're south of it. Money if you're just north of it.

Facts. I'd love a few legit cold powder clippers this winter.

I always nitpick. It's my nature. I'm a firm believer that it's easier to reel in a storm if the western features are more cooperative. Helps to set the east coast trough up better.

Sharpen that western CONUS ridge up a bit more and I'm all in.

Blerg. I thought I cross pollinated this in the winter thread.

Couple of very, very early thoughts as we continue to slide through autumn: 1.) Seems like the Euro OP midrange QPF bias beyond HR 150 is real. 2.) Long range warm ups may be head fakes. Also, as @mitchnick has observed it's good to see a persistent trough over Japan. 3.) I have no expectations that we're going to see some SECS or HECS this winter, but man it'd be nice to get a forum wide 6" - 10" event.

Thank you for the analysis. I do appreciate it. Thank you. Seems like we don't torch and have a short to get at least one warning level snowfall event. I'll take it. I appreciate the insight. Thank you!

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?