Eskimo Joe

To be clear, I'm not debbing on this winter. We have several favorable factors working in our favor thus far, and as @WxUSAF has noted these torches advertised in the medium to long range have been muted as we close on the date.

While I hope to be wrong, I agree. We're investing a lot of hope in an early SSWE and the past 10 years have largely been putrid for snow lovers in this subforum.

Oof, not good to see.

With our climate becoming increasingly hostile to snow each winter, we need as many things to go right as possible.

18z GFS/GEFS shows a legitimate fail mode for us, and one that I'm always concerned about happening. The trough dumps out west, flexes the southeast ridge, and we just torch while the central and western US score. Hope this is just a fluke.

My goals before Christmas: Outstanding: multiple snow events, whether all advisory/warning/combination of these Great: One warning level snowfall event. Good: One advisory level snowfall event Bad: No snow Shut the Blinds: patterns fails and we get back to zonal puke

Hey maybe the PDO is tilting towards our favor?

The fly in the ointment right now for the holidays is a lack of a -NAO. It's tough to get a big snowstorm without that feature to hold a storm closer to the coast. I'm not unhappy by any stretch of the imagination though...it beats Pacific Puke with 580dm heights across the entire CONUS!

Bro we are the same.

ALEET

Congrats to @wxmeddlerfor his work on the statewide mesonet, and his first TV appearance! https://video.mpt.tv/video/tracking-local-weather-a-hidden-whale-highway-maryland-big-tree-program-zhvzir/

We need these every winter TBH. That's what made 2009-2010 so special. We had cold, big events, and little events.

As @WxUSAF said, we seem to be consistently trending cooler as we close on events.

For RSTM2 COOP site, really impressed to see the warm start to November. We're running right at average now only because the past couple of days have been so abnormally cool.