Eskimo Joe
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Agreed. Total qpf bust.
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What a surprise, the forecast rainfall amounts have evaporated.
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Already spiking south of US 50 it seems.
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Agreed. You can see the cumulus field developing.
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The wedge appears to be entrenched north of I-66, but visible satellite is showing some decent breaks west of I-81.
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HRRR was right. Never discount an impulse riding along a front.
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Holy elevated convection batman.
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Classic mid range Euro wet bias.
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Bring it
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22z special sounding from Millersville University shows a stout cap at around 700mb
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Yes it did
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Latest SPC mesoanalysis has ~50kt jet aloft and we're sitting on a CAPE tongue. Might be enough to get some cluster moving through this afternoon. I'd like to see us tack on another 3 to 5 degrees to be safe though.
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Now we can cook with no pressure.
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Correct. We're more than ten degrees below the convective temp. That isn't a good sign for robust convection.
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