LakeEffectKing

Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI.

I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience.

Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away.

Good Howard! Just not posting as much. Always have a little time when there's going to be a big one.

Probably in the next 18-24 hrs. Takes a bit of time to get all levels aligned AND to clear out the center....then boom!

Seen this dog and pony show before....too many parameters trending positive for RI in 18-36 hrs. Idalia should easily be a major by tomorrow, and may very well be CAT 4 by 06z Wed.

The cleanness of the rapid EWRC, happened at the worst time. It expanded the wind field, and now is tightening the core... In the span of 12 hrs., this went from a very bad situation to a likely catastrophic one.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 280856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IAN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 82.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * All of the Florida Keys * Flamingo to South Santee River * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key * Florida Bay * Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 82.9 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area this morning, and move onshore later today. The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Very recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before Ian reaches the coast of Florida. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-10 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian moves onshore. Hurricane conditions will begin along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning before daybreak. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the Florida Keys, and will continue this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning today, and should spread up the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches. * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic later this week through the weekend. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight across central and south Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf coast of Florida. These swells will spread westward along portions of the north-central Gulf coast during the next day or so. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

411 WTNT34 KNHC 271156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...IAN BATTERING WESTERN CUBA WITH HIGH WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 83.6W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA ABOUT 130 MI...240 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa * Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West * Flamingo to Bonita Beach * Suwannee River to the Anclote River * Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * Aucilla River to Anclote River * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line * Saint Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass * Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line * Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, Cuban and Key West radar data near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 83.6 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected while Ian moves over Cuba. Strengthening is expected later this morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Anclote River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River... 5-8 ft * Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL... 4-7 ft * Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...2-4 ft * Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft * Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft * Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are expected where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening, and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday night: * Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. * Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated totals up to 8 inches * Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to 24 inches. * Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean, and will begin to affect the Florida Keys today, and will spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Should see 120mph by 12z...probably 945-950mb.

8" so far for Storm here. Still snowing lightly. Right at 140" for this long season.

NAM 12z...

20220417_103613.mp4