WintersGrasp

Haven’t posted in quite a while here either. Hopefully this storm sends this winter off with a bang (but I’m sure we still have a chance of a little more in the next couple weeks). As it stands now, anything from rain and a little white snow to even 6”+ is in the cards for the NYC area. If I had to bet, I’d say 2” for the city (though maybe only a trace for Central Park), up to 4” just N and W, and 5-10” further N and W into NJ, elevation dependent, with the higher amounts 800’+. Only thing that looks like a safe bet right now is the jackpot being NY state through NW CT, MA, and on out. Of course, everything could be tugged a bit further N and leave us with rain ending as a few wet snow showers. We have to keep in mind that the NAM, a few days out, doesn’t usually put out solutions that are increasingly more likely, but just puts out different solutions each run (6” to 12” to 0 to 12” to 0, etc). HRRR is usually heavily overdone right up until the storm hits, and not meant to be a long range model. Most models, such as the GFS, have not really had anything more than an inch or so for the metro or coastal areas for a couple days at least. Good luck to all! . Pro

Most models show at least 6”. Not the 12”+ that recent runs put out, but that was really only a couple cycles on individual models that did anyway. The latest HRRR gives the area 8-10. I find it tends to be overdone with marginal temps when it often shows 6-10” and we end up with 3”. This is a situation where I feel the 8” could easily verify and wouldn’t be surprised at all if we get a bit more than that. . Pro

Hope everyone is well!! Been quite A WHILE since posting. Turned into a lurker here as I didn’t have much to contribute. Looks like we have a nice little storm here. I’ve always looked at it this way for the NE NJ/NYC area lower elevations..we tend to get 6” of snow fairly often. I consider 6” here a solid snowstorm. To get much more than that, there usually needs to be something special for our area. It could be a storm bombing out, enhanced banding, or high ratios. The latter is rare for us, but it seems it could happen here. Obviously a storm bombing out in just the right place would give us 12”+, and if we have more than one of those “special” things, it would usually be a lock for a foot of snow, but it seems that will be for parts of LI through SNE for this one. The models have been consistently inconsistent, but overall not their worst showing with this storm. I think 6-10” is a good call for this area right now. Moderate snow and higher ratios than 10:1, probably 6 or 7”. Occasional heavier banding plus higher than normal ratios may surprise some of us by when we measure 8-10” possibly. A slight shift west and even 10-12” is not out of the question, though I do think most of the 12-18”+ amounts will be from the coastal NJ areas up through LI. If nothing else, it’s pretty cool to see the “snow depth” map totals better than the “total snowfall 10:1” maps! . Pro

HRRR still does show a couple bands coming through most of the area 7pm-9pm and also 11pm-3am. Good chance these could put down another 1-3 for most areas, maybe up to an additional 4” for the higher elevations of NWNJ through SNY. Picked up about 2” here in Essex county so another 2” would be 4” total, making it a great forecast by NWS (3-5”)

33 and cloudy right now. HRRR still does show a couple bands coming through most of the area 7pm-9pm and also 11pm-3am. Good chance these could put down another 1-3 for most areas, maybe up to an additional 4” for the higher elevations of NWNJ through SNY. Picked up about 2” here in Essex county so another 2” would be 4” total, making it a great forecast by NWS (3-5”)

Should be snow north of this line I would think? Heavy precip winning the race with the mix line

The mix line is headed north, but all models show this having a tough time making it up through EWR/NYC before sliding east and out. In the next 2-3 hours, much of NE-NJ through the city should pick up 3-5” as the heavy banding sets up right over our area before racing off NE. Should be fun