JasonOH

I’ll leave the 06z HRRR run here for posterity. I think the true analogue for how this will end up is 3/21/1932. Not sure what I would put the floor at, but it’s really high in my opinion. If instability is underdone like usual, I think we are in a world of hurt with the synoptic environment being as good as it is. Barring a morning MCS, which seems unlikely at this time, I think this one is a lock for a really bad day.

That may have been the last pass for a bit. Next recon takes off at 2000z with an on station 2115z and will get a center fix a bit after that.

I would ignore those very high SFMR readings. Just because it's not flagged doesn't mean it is accurate

Thats 11mb extrap decrease in 1:20 so about 8mb/HR drop...

Maybe. MPI is showing 890-900 so I think 905-910mb may be a good ceiling to work off of

The eye has warmed significantly in the last 15 minutes. Next pass should be under 920mb.

I also think the double wind maxima are just banding since they only show up in the SW and S sides. Thats also the side getting rekt by shear so I don’t think there’s a second eyewall that would survive there but not on the east side.

Looks like low level SW shear. Storms can’t easily overcome that since it’s below the outflow. Until that abates the storm is going to have a flat west side.

That’s super interesting. Thanks for posting that.

The last pass looks to have actually had a downdraft. Pressure spiked and altitude dropped

Not with SFMR of 145. Tend to need around 150 to get cat 5 with the standard 10% reduction.

It’s all modeled based on physics. Big picture there’s high pressure west and NE so it will head north between them

This wasn’t in the eyewall. It was over the delta (land) which caused it to get flagged

Looks like the eye is circular now. Still not closed but now that it’s circular it should happen pretty soon.

Still having mist in Wichita Falls. Cloud deck is pretty thick