CAPE

There could easily be some error at this range in the exact positioning/orientation of the long wave features. I wouldn't call it a can kick but given the currently advertised position of the Pac trough and the downstream ridge over AK towards D15, its not hard to imagine a western US trough for a time at the beginning of Dec.

Always hard to tell with you lol. The point stands.

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Click bait. WB CFS is useless. That's a single run. That model is volatile af and changes like the wind. Only somewhat useful when averaged over several runs. If you look at it on Tropical Tidbits it is the average of the last 12 runs.

Latest edition of the Euro Weeklies continues to advertise a favorable h5 look for early Dec( and beyond fwiw).

1.2" for the day Had a tenth in the morning and the rest was from the storm last night.

Pummeled. Sounds like July out there.

Awful. And why did Keaton Mitchell disappear again after getting some chunk plays? Fucking Harbaugh. Wasn't pretty, but its a win. TY Vikings for so many gifts. Onward.

Nice downpour happening.

I did the same. As I am looking out the window its ripping fatties(oak leaves) and covering up the area I just cleared.

Dec 2009, because it was KU that occurred before Xmas(very unusual) and it kicked off the best snow season of my lifetime. Modoki Nino with epic NA Blocking that developed early and sustained through winter. My answer may have been different earlier but at this juncture that's the one lol.

That's way too far out for an extended product. Stick with the early Dec period- much more likely to have a clue. H5 for the first week of Dec continues to look good: -NAO, which as modeled on the ens runs develops in mid/late Nov but with a bit of a hostile Pac, is still present with big improvement in the PNA/EPO domain.

Peak to past peak here, but still plenty of leaves yet to fall. Spent a few hours today blowing/raking to keep ahead of it.

Maybe a couple hundredths. Fine with me as I have a ton of leaves to blow. Nice and dry..

The Ravens weren't very good that season and missed the playoffs, but that game was wild in the snow.