CAPE

It most certainly is on an ensemble run. Otoh, snow maps past day 10 on an op run are completely useless.

Can we not post 336 hour snow maps from a random op run lol. Zero value. Provide some insight for the depicted setup and why its plausible that it could actually snow.

The h5 pattern matters, even more so in March. A +AO/+NAO in early Spring is not conducive to getting snow at our latitude.

Super nice day with temps in the upper 40s and blue cloudless skies. Don't think you need to worry about a blizzard lol. Nothing about the depicted pattern going forward suggests that is even a remote possibility.

For those who want to keep hope alive, the March 8-10 window is probably the one to keep an eye on. Plenty of time to do it, and it most likely will evaporate long before we get close. I won't call it a signal because its pretty far out, but there have been suggestions on both the GEFS and EPS that a wave could possibly track underneath in that period, with low pressure along/just off the coast to our south. Timing would have to be impeccable, and even then who knows if it would be cold enough.

Break it up a bit, put it in a glass, and pour some bourbon over it.

Nah I don't shovel. Not my thing if I can avoid it.

Justin Tucker probably said this.

Hit 40 today. Currently 33. Stocking up on mulch. Going to get some Spring things done over the next week.

Wow its pouring snow in Sapporo right now with huge stellar dendrites. Live vicariously.

We may have some snow in March, but a snowy March is a stretch. Start with the fact that its March, and then the advertised +AO/NAO isn't at all helpful.

Cold and snow is automatic here with cold air from Siberia flowing across the Sea of Japan. Copious snow from Dec through mid March. Love how they never salt the roads- just plow occasionally and deal with it. They drive with no issues.

It was definitely cold and with significant snow otg for much of Jan and being in an anti UHI area, and not close to either bay for moderation, pretty believable.

Probably, but there is always a chance for a fluke, especially in March. The thing is, we probably see some -NAO action develop again, but not until late March/early April when it is completely effing useless, unless you want cold and damp at that point.

I am all for continued drought until maybe early June at this point. Maybe once in all the years I have lived here did my seasonal woodland wetland stay dry through Spring, requiring no larvicide treatments. I would love to have that situation again. Once leaf out happens and days are longer and hotter, the water table is dropping, so even a deluge in late Spring/early Summer won't result in water lying there.