CAPE

No left fade lately. Just down the middle.

Anyone feeling sorry for the Steelers fans? The Chiefs might actually be very good right now, despite the smoke and mirrors routine for much of the season, not looking great and getting every call and every break. And Mahomes is always money when it counts.

There is still a storm signal for the 4th on the 12z GEFS, but a bit weaker than the last 2 runs.

It's cold, it's gray. Actually feels like Christmas day. Enjoy the holidays everyone.

Snowstorm on the 8th then the avocado drops.

There is one monster hit, but there are 4 or 5 others with frozen for the MA plus one that's suppressed south. Pretty solid signal on 2 of the last 3 GEFS runs for a potential D9-10 event.

The strongest signal on the EPS continues to be around the 8th.

7-8 members have frozen for the MA in the 4-5 window, biased somewhat southward. 2 big hits.

Solid signal on the HH/Xmas eve GEFS for the 4th-5th.

Multiple signals on the latest EPS from around the 3rd on, but the 8th is the strongest. Actually favors frozen south of us.

It tried. Just different timing between shortwaves and not enough spacing this run. The 0z Euro tried too. That is definitely our first window of interest. 6z GEFS has 7 or 8 members that imply frozen for our general area in the 4th-5th timeframe

I think the extended tools are probably most useful to take a peak beyond the end of the latest ensemble run by a week to 10 days, but not 20 or 30 lol.

18 here this morning. I think the forecast low was 23 or something.

The combo of Nina and the TPV position/NS energy rotating southward around that complicates things. We end up with more LP to our north/northwest than we want. Wave timing becomes more critical to get the outcome we want.

Also the extended products that far out aren't very reliable- as we all well know from last winter's perpetually advertised epic pattern that never materialized.