CAPE

Not duds for the MA region as a whole. The bomb cyclone in Jan 2018 and the 'Cape' storm in early Jan 22. There were additional light to moderate events for the coastal plain in those winters too. Sorry it didn't work out for the NW crew, but that's just kinda bad luck. Roll the dice with those synoptic setups again.

Not sure its an early read. It tends to happen more times than not in a Nina, probably in neutral ENSO as well. Anecdotally when we are in a Nino models tend to get more juiced as we get closer to an event. Not really too surprising when you think about the pattern tendencies.

Yeah the advertised late Oct- early Nov pattern looks like one that could snow in the western highlands.

Siberian HP is strengthening, as it always does in Fall with decrease in sun angle and efficient radiational cooling in a hyper continental climate. Probably a bit earlier this year.

Sipping an Ardbeg Wee Beastie 5 yr old single malt Scotch whiskey before going out with the blower to dispense with the first round of leaves. It's Fall for real.

1-5 is tough to come back from. They have the bye and then the Bears and Dolphins. If they beat both(they should) then they are 3-5 and have a pulse. I just think this team has a lot of issues with coaching, discipline and accountability, so I don't think they are capable of reeling off a bunch of wins. Realistically they can only lose 2 more to have a shot at the division.

Love how Tomlin got burned after whining about the trade within the division. Flacco can still throw the football and with those receivers he can keep the Bengals hanging around until Burrow gets back. Next 2 games are against the Jets and Bears. They could very well be 5-4.

Other than a brief warm up this weekend, typical Fall weather-normal to below normal temps- looks likely in the LR per the ensembles through the end of the month, and the week beyond into early Nov on the extended products. Bring it. Love me some 'normal' weather in Fall, whether it rains or not. It's simply the best imo. Also wouldn't mind seeing an h5 look like this in January.

High of 62 after a low of 43. Damn near perfect mid October day.

Pretty sky this morning around sunrise.

Mostly sunny here too.

The key feature for the early Jan blizzard was a strong NA block, along with an uncharacteristically strong low(for a Nina) that developed in the GoM. It was actually a moderate Nina. Common misconception that it was weak Nina, and I posted about this last winter. Weak Ninas usually suck bigtime for the greater DC area- last winter was a rare exception, but hopefully its a new norm.

That was a very localized heavy snow event. The ol' upper level low surprise. That map there is closer to reality than the one I ridiculed in the previous post. LOL 6-10"? NO. Was maybe an inch or 2 here. It simply didn't do anything for most of the event and by the time it shifted over this way it rapidly weakened.

That map isnt even close over this way. Might have been an inch or so. Consider the source.