CAPE

Something similar to that pattern is probably our best chance to get enough cold to end up with normal / above normal snow this winter.

Hard to argue the predicted snowfall tallies, but the PDO has been hostile for awhile, and we have managed several decent snowfall winters in that timeframe. The bigger issue to me is weak Ninas consistently produce below normal snowfall in our region. I think all of them have for the DC area.

Long term avg snowfall here is 18.5. I never expect that(anymore), although exceeded it in 2022- right around 20". So it is still possible. 10-15" would be a really good outcome for my yard this winter given what we know going in(probably a weak event, solar, QBO) and gleaning some hints from the long range/seasonal guidance. Wildcard imo is a favorable EPO/WPO for an extended period. A little over 10" was it for the super awesome el Nino of last winter lol. Nina winters have generally yielded more snow here since 2015.

Just a reminder- weak La Ninas historically almost always feature below average snowfall for the MA. Seems a weak event is most likely at this juncture.

Temp dropped to 28 before midnight. Now up to 37 at 530 am.

GEFS is a bit more bullish on that cold look than the Euro and CMC ens.

An h5 look like this in the latter third of November should produce some decent upslope snow in the far western highlands.

With the HP to the north and the secondary low forming further south on latest runs, its going to be difficult to get any appreciable rain for northeastern parts of the region. Maybe a tenth here. Looked like quarter to a half on previous runs.

30

0.34"

I'm gonna guess it will be less whacky with the day 10+ outcomes from run to run.

Pees is thrice retired and 75 now. Not the answer. Marcus Williams is a big problem if you watch the video. He is either out of position, takes bad angles, or looks completely lost on many of the big plays. He needs to ride the pine. Maybe play less zone, as it seems to be where most of the big plays occur. The general miscommunication should be fixable in house. Not rocket science.

LOL GFS. The op run should just stop at 240 hrs like the other models.

LOL There has been zero improvement since he came in. Worse if you look at the stats. It was an idea, but a bad one. Be gone swiss pees.