40/70 Benchmark

Right, but probably a bit cooler.

It seems like intensification was reinvigorated when it began moving a bit more readily, so upwelling may have slowed the rate a bit for a spell.

Looks like Back River is the winner.

Well, the two aren't mutually exlusive.

One of the "best" areas that it could have hit in terms of population....west jog did us a small solid.

Yea, St Elizabeth's Parish will get wiped.

System is a wonderful casestudy in how to navigate internal processess in the healthiest way possible. Wow.

Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.

Yea, to be fair...really only one direction for them to go.

I mentioned that to him a couple of weeks ago.

Oh, agree then. I forget you are coming from a northern mid atl perspective sometimes.

Higher up will have stronger winds and heavier rain, too.....ugh...safer from surge, but elevation will amplify the senisble storm impacts.

Well, you said mid winter....in December, sure....but mid season (ie Jan-Feb), I'm sure there would have been some mixing along the immediate coast...def. big issues on the coast, but did you see the band over SE MA?? That would have been a heavy pasting. There spots in se MA that had 6-7" of rain.

I do think the WSW jog is a small break.

I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surge capacity. It would also stand to increase the rainshield in aerial coverage. I do agree we will see one, though.