40/70 Benchmark

Every time Tony lies, the warm nose grows like Pinocchio

How much you want for it?

18z NAM looks great!!

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

Which is why I have orographic enhancement in addition to OES...not sure why it would the band would run east to west when the topography is N to S.

I'm talking reality, not long range model runs...but that isn't high-end, anyway....nice storm, but not anything epic.

Yea, no thanks.

Any storm dropping snowfall that far south will not be high end for us, unless it's a 1/100 year full phaser.

I'm not shocked....I mentioned to Steve, 2014-2015 was the best QBO/solar match I could find...couple that with the subsurface warmth within the ENSO region, and bang. Furthermore, check out the analogs in this +TNH composite that I compiled for the late January/early February period in my outlook? Here is a composite of seasons that fit this +TNH description over the past decade or so. I also liked 2012-2013 as analog, but ultimately decided against using 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 because they were too warm ENSOish, but I thought they both had value for latter January into early February. Moving forward I am going to be more aggressive with straying from ENSO in my seasonal analog composite unless it's strong.

Tightening up that gradient with the press of confluence...may not be worst thing in the world for se NH independent of any OES.

Got my answer Figured.

How did it trend from 00z?

The N to S bands over interior are orographically enhanced due to onshore H850 inflow.

I'd rather see it get west of me than stay well east TBH....last think I want is it pinned inside of 128.