40/70 Benchmark

I think 3ish.

Pouring snow now after a break...like a fog outside.

1.75"

Scooter bin Laden?

Pretty decent snow here

Yup! Lol I'm usually as IMBY as they come, but I have a nostalgic appreciation for that one.

I have a hardcover book on that one that I enjoy reading every March.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/close-call-presidents-day-with-warm-up.html I favor the warmer February outcome of the GFS suite over the EURO.

Close Call President's Day With Warm Up Thereafter Major Storm Expected To Remain Largely At Sea Expected Pacific Onslaught Likely Prohibitive Eastern Mass Weather forecast the development of a fairly strong -PNA pattern for the month of February in the Eastern Mass Weather winter outlook issued last fall. This is precisely what has materialized and is forecast to persist throughout most of to the month by both the GFS and European ensemble suites. This type of pattern often destructively interferes with major east coast cyclogenesis due the absence of a strong ridge over the western CONUS. It is evident in the graphic below that the energy crashing ashore in the Pacific Northwest has both flattened and displaced the ridge to the east. This prevents a direct strike from large ocean storm expected to make a relatively close pass to southern New England during the President's Day holiday, which does indeed have a history of major winter storms on the east coast. Thus it is due to this anticipated shift in the pattern over the western CONUS that this system unlikely to earn a chapter in the annals of yore. However, some appreciable snowfall is likely if the northern stream disturbance is potent enough, so this bares watching. Additionally, anomalies due happen, so a larger impact from a more phased solution can not entirely be ruled out in the event that the ridge over the plains flattens enough to allow the southern wave to come up the coast. Thereafter, a thaw from the rather harsh winter pattern to date is likely in a similar progression that of January. MJO Led Winter Reprieve Likely Next Week The MJO wave is rather diffuse at this time, however, there are growing indications that it will move into the MC and intensify beyond mid-month. Here is the favored pattern based upon a reasonably robust MJO phase 8 response circa February 20th. Note the resemblance to both mild mid-January Pacific trough regime. And longer range ensemble guidance. Although there exists fairly good agreement, the one discrepancy between the EPS (left) and GEFS (right) is that the former maintains more of a -NAO pattern, whereas the GFS guidance largely breaks it down. This lead to a milder pattern upwards of several degrees above average on the GEFS, as opposed to a pattern that simply moderates to near normal on the European suite. The reason for this discrepancy appears to the greater commitment of the GFS suite to amplification of the MJO as it approaches the MC later this month. The colder European guidance is believed to be in error, and thus a warmer solution is favored for the balance of the month for four reasons. 1) +NAO is favored in the MJO phase 4 forecast composite posted earlier. 2) The feeble MJO wave depicted on the earlier referenced plot is actually inconsistent with the model's own Hovmoller diagram, which is in agreement with the GFS suite on amplification in phase 4. 3) The European guidance has been biased low in amplitude within the MC, which is why the bias corrected version of its' own output is also more in agreement with the GEFS. 4) Finally, the West Pacific warm pool remains alive and well, which predisposes the MJO towards the MC, as has been the case for the past several years. Conclusions The GFS scenario of MJO amplification in phase 4 leading to a mild pattern beyond mid-February is favored due to the demonstrated inability of the European guidance to properly resolve the predisposition of the MJO towards the MC as a byproduct of the formidable West Pacific Warm pool. This also renders its' modeled persistence of the -NAO later this month a less viable solution, which supports the milder scenario depicted by the GEFS. This means that a considerable thaw is likely beyond mid month, but what it does not mean is that winter is over. Although the anticipated SSW is not occurring as forecast, there are signs of additional weakening of the polar vortex later in the month that still may have an impact during the month of MARCH, in addition to any potential reconfigurations in the North Pacific pattern.

Beyond tonight's light snowfall that is now underway, a big storm this weekend is unlikely, however, that does not necessarily mean no snow whatsoever. More on that later this week if necessary. Some disagreement concerning a warm up next week, but I happen to be on the somewhat warm train for reasons discussed. Now the question that begs to be asked...is winter done? I do not think so, but I do believe that the harsh arctic air is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/close-call-presidents-day-with-warm-up.html

All northern stream.

The EURO sends the MJO more onto the COD, whereas other guidance enters the MC....going to do a write up soon about the favored option.

Yes, but that was because of confluence...it was a potent wave. This is different because it's just a weak northern streamer coming out of Canada.

Great, get the plows ready in Tolland.

Okay, I was only looking up here.