40/70 Benchmark

Still scarred from last December.

Yea....I expected a non-reversal warming early in the season, and then another reflection event in mid January, followed up a major SSW complete with reversal in February.

Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.

Miller A rse

That is the progression I expect in January.

Where did you pull those graphics from?

Absolutely this.

The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing.....what you are implying is akin to saying that I jog 3x weekly, so I know I'm very healthy....come to find out, I also smoke 6 packs a week, inhale MacDonalds 3x daily and have casual unprotected sex with one-legged prostitutes on a nightly basis.

I don't care how much crap can be dug up from AI, the strat stuff is pretty useless.

Given the progression of the reflection event coupled with a weakening MJO wave, the GEFS make more sense to me mid month. Re-consolidating PV and developing PT regime.

The larger test is mid month and onward.

He actually went against the EURO in favor of the GFS last week.

I swear he has an alarm on his Iphone that is triggered whenever MJO812 smiles.

He has a varied approach...may also be a Pacific SST chart along with sentence or six about how the models embellish phase 8 of the MJO in this "new, warmer climate".

I'm waiting for Bluewave to embed a tweet about how fast of a flight it was from Tokyo to San Francisco, and then a 1994-2015 minus 2016-2025 250mb zonal wind graphic