40/70 Benchmark

That is what usually happens with arctic blasts in +TNH patterns...historic cold knifes down the center of the country and we get unremarkable anomalies.

The follow up event that is decent is probably going to have that same gradient of the last 8 years that has driven me nuts...just north of me. I'll go full-tilt.

The PNA is still being undersold.

Absolutely.

I really don't think it matters.

Yea, this is the time of year I gave up last year and I'm getting close...only difference is I have more hope for late year than I did last season.

I liked their look for the second system....the ridge out west becomes better oriented.

You can start with the ridge out west being positively tilted...I said that a couple of days ago....it's like last year. Set up looks good from 500 yards, but once you get a good look, the beer goggles come off. If you remember in that January system circa like the 10th that failed...we had the same issue. We had one big 12z run in that one, too....everyone, including me bough it. Learned a lesson a year ago about the importance of not just the ridge placement, but orientation. Look, I get why someone like Kev is excited...he will be happy with like 3-4"..that's fine. Decent shot of that IMO. But at this point of the season, I think a lot of us are done with the sand blasts over trivial amounts of snow. But if you savor every flake and still look forward to it, then great.

The upside isn't much more than that up here. I get it.....people sit on the dopamine syringe and spin when they see the deep closed low, but that is NOT where you want that if you live up here. That overhyped, wind-bag in early January 2018 did that.

NVM all of the other idiosyncrasies that are holding this back, I never like seeing a deep closed low over upstate Carolina.....nothing good comes from that for NE. Upside is a sloppy seconds, off of the tree, off of the car, off of the woodpecker's head, off of the neighbor's dong, nothing but net.-type of moderate event. I get it...everyone is desperate....it's like when I was in the Marine Corps and we'd lock eyes with a moderately weathered (no pun intended), redheaded chick missing a boob in a jack shack off of Camp Lejune. This is the type of evolution that you staggered towards at last call when the lights turn on to reveal that you're still by yourself. Just set expectations accordingly for this first wave. It sucks-

Yea, night and day

That is how I'd hedge....EURO AI was doing that, too.

Don't hate it as long as it nuisances south of me. Mid atl can have the road salt blizzard.

That storm blows.

If it's like 3-6" I really wouldn't care...prefer it TBH.