40/70 Benchmark

Yes, you did. The person that MJO took that graphic from on Twitter is.

Sure, it can be argued that perhaps that PV will recover more slowly than some are implying, but I think interpreting that subtle weakening around Xmas as a major disruption is what is insane...especially on the heels of this current head-fake. December reversals are exceedingly rare, which is why reflection events are so common place in January and February.

The implication is that it will strengthen relatively rapidly if we are to have a reflection event in January, as I believe that we will. I told everyone that this first one would not result in a reversal weeks ago, when social media was whipped into a PV orgy.

I didn't say "strong" by Xmas, I said approaching climo....then strong into January. That map indicates another slight weakening just prior to Xmas...nothing major.

Looks like a graphic pirated from that bafoon, Mark Margavage, who is trying to claim there will be a major SSW with a reversal around xmas. I can assure you, there will not.

Still scarred from last December.

Yea....I expected a non-reversal warming early in the season, and then another reflection event in mid January, followed up a major SSW complete with reversal in February.

Watch it be a SOP deal......I'd hang myself with a mistletoe before we even hit mid December.

Miller A rse

That is the progression I expect in January.

Where did you pull those graphics from?

Absolutely this.

The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing.....what you are implying is akin to saying that I jog 3x weekly, so I know I'm very healthy....come to find out, I also smoke 6 packs a week, inhale MacDonalds 3x daily and have casual unprotected sex with one-legged prostitutes on a nightly basis.

I don't care how much crap can be dug up from AI, the strat stuff is pretty useless.

Given the progression of the reflection event coupled with a weakening MJO wave, the GEFS make more sense to me mid month. Re-consolidating PV and developing PT regime.