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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
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120,845 profile views
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Yea, I have it falling just short.
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31.1 this AM....fake cold, real frost.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Which part did CC contribute to? All of it....the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute heat, so the rapid warming of the climate is acutely relevant in that respect. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That climate change isn't playing a part in this El Nino...the immense OHC that has built up in the west Pacific has absolutely played a rpole in trggiering this response. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
They why did the 2023 El Niño have a very meager GOA low presence despite a peak ONI of 2.0? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No to the first, but as far as as the second....not the RONI itself, but the disconnect that it represents may to an extent...and that doesn't necessarily mean colder in the east, either. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks about the same for me....about 15" below average seems reasonable. No complaints. -
https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/isaias-poses-imminent-threat-to-gulf-coast-by-early-saturday-am-as-first-hurrica/ Isaias First Call:
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Ah...didn't know about antecedent conditions...
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I think that is implicit in the tone of the NHC public products, but yea...I mean, it won't even matter in terms of surge.
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Lilly is about the most profound example that I can recall...went from about 145mph to 100mph upon LF near the TX/LA border in 2002.
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It's easy to grow complacent and fall victim to recency bias, and I know we have had some feast right up to the shore in the gulf of late, but I don't think this is Michael.
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Not to undermine hydro concerns, which will be plentiful near the shore, but hopefully progressive enough to limit freshwater flooding.
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Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....
