40/70 Benchmark

Pretty clear to me that it plays a role, as it does in just about everything. Is it the only factor? Of course not...but the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute the solar heat that builds in the west Pacific as a product of the Walker Cycle, so it definitely has an impact.

All joking and ball-busting aside, I certainly see a pathway to a poor winter given the situation with ENSO....and to steal a page from CPC, it's definitely more likely that snowfall will below average than above, however, I think it's far from a foregone conclusion that it will be poor...and yes, I'll spend the better part of the next 3 months of my life explaining why. As far as temps go, it will almost certainly be above average...I think the floor is near normal, like 1957. Crazy how that same area from MBY into se NH has been a screw-zone for QPF this decade...that has been so consistent.

How would CPC answer this? More likely than not?

Okay.

I don't understand on how he can can be so confident in below average temps throughout the NE in the most intense El Nino on record when there is no incidence of the NE being below average in an intense El Nino in recorded history. He said that he would explain early on, but never really did....just offered some vague rhetoric concerning +PNA inducing backdoor arctic shots. While arctic infiltration from the north is the most efficient avenue for arctic delivery in the NE, which was evident in the Feb 2016 outbreak, it is highly unlikely to be prevalent enough to be reflected in the seasonal mean. Above average snowfall virtually everywhere east of the apps?? I could see it for the mid atl, but not all throughout the NE....none of the intense events have pulled that off. He seems to be going with a 1957/1965 outcome, which is near average around here, but I think the magnitude of ENSO and the solar cycle make that a tough sell this year.

2023 was pretty out of sync from a solar perspective, though, so I do think there was some resistance that may not be readily apparent. This year we have the massive, unprecedented OHC working in conjunction with the favorable descent of solar cycle 25....perfect storm, so to speak. This connection between descending solar and intense El Niño can be explained by the same "bottom up" theory that research originally incorrectly applied to the supposed link between solar max and +NAO, which has since been debunked by more modern work. Here is a schematic explaining why La Nina is favored during high solar, as was the case last winter. Obviously, the inverse is true during descending solar, as is the case currently. More clouds leads to less evaporation and warmer sea surface temperatures, which results in weaker trades with stronger WWBs carrying moisture and warmer waters to the west. This weakens the Walker Cell, leading to stronger MC subsidence in the west, which reduces tropical convection. The descending portion of solar cycle 25 has been met with the highest OHC in recorded history throughout the Pacific basin, hence we are seeing the strongest El Nino in recorded history materialize.

I'm quite confident that it's related to the massive amount of OHC that has built up in the western Pacific basin.

Yes, I understand that baseline heights are greater, but that doesn't necessarily preclude colder and stormier intervals over the course of a given season.

Yes, but it is my belief that we will have less MC influence than 2023 and more variability than 1997 due to the magnitude of warmth throughout the basin. That said, we shouldn't have the early season blocking that 1997 did due to the different solar and QBO factors.

Okay. The NDJ period trended towards a greater SE trough.

I don't agree that it's more east-based than 1997, but that is beside the point. You are obsessing over the temp anomalies themselves....it will be above average. We get that. The model will be too cold...got it. But why is it trending colder this late in the game is my point.

I think it's important not to automatically dismiss the correction towards default El Nino leading into the strongest El Nino in history.

Right, but was there a trend towards a more defined se trough this late in the game? I feel like that is what is important because call me crazy, but this may just be the year when a correction towards default El Nino may be the correct adjustment.