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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se....... 23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge. Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    For the most part, but I could see a good 3 week stretch between mid January and mid February we're that could be decent retention. 1983 was like that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I mean...seasonal guidance isn't that different, regardless, but like I said, the EURO is probably most realistic.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that matters.....I think you're being a bit too linear. The EURO has it a good handle on this and it has the forcing near 160W, too. Maybe it's wrong, but I don't see any reason to assume that is the case.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    My largest knock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    @GaWxI would say around 120W.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I usually go with orientation at peak as most representative of the winter season, so December should be pretty representative. I agree, CANSIPS is off.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we will tap that cold in Siberia for a brief interval or two during the second half.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The December output def. seems further off than the DJF mean, though, Nick.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you read on, I noted that. It's come into much better agreement, though.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good point, I hadn't noticed that...it's actually like +4F.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have an issue with the possibility of an awful winter, sure, but he used the word "never"....sorry, but that is an impossibility around here. Terd season, okay...but snowless? Nope-
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