40/70 Benchmark

Shot this ends up as Miller B east

I expect a north trend again.

Major Follow-Up Potential Looms Next Weekend Active Pattern Prime For East Coast Storms Warrants Heightened Vigilance Despite the final flakes having yet to flutter down from the ongoing storm, Mother Nature is already seemingly taking aim on an encore performance next weekend. The approximate one week lead time of this system renders tropical forcing an invaluable tool to anticipate any future trends or morphologies that are likely to take place throughout the balance of the week. Tropical Forcing Offers Modest Constructive Interference With One Caveat The anticipated tropical forcing regime is ostensibly constructively interfering with, or supporting, the pattern modeled for next weekend on the European ensemble mean, which happens to be very favorable for major east coast cyclogenesis. Note that the European guidance also forecasts the MJO to translate through phase 8, albeit it at a rapid pace, this weekend, which strongly supports the modeled pattern that is so conducive to east coast cyclogensis. GFS-based guidance concurs. This major Miller A scenario also has cross-ensemble support both the GFS and GEM ensemble mean camps. Thus this scenario could conceivably be considered a rather high probability outcome. However, although support for a major east coast storm is undeniably strong, that may not be the case for this particular evolution when considering the recent past. Using History As A Guide The protracted winter storm that is still having some residual impacts across the area was once modeled as major snowstorm throughout the middle Atlantic region, and while that region did in fact receive significant snows, the heaviest snows ultimately shifted north. The resemblance between the modeled pattern for next weekend, and the original portrayal of for this past weekend is quite striking overall. However, the trend that ensued throughout the week was for the primary low to remain dominant longer, rendering this more of a Miller B type of evolution. A reoccurrence of this type of morphology with respect to the characterization of cyclogenesis would not at all be unexpected should the MJO never really materialize in phase 8, and there is reason to believe that that may very well be the case. Potential Implications of "Phantom-Phase 8" Last fall, Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook paid homage to a prevalent trend over the past decade for guidance to overemphasize the passage of the MJO through phase 8 due to the persistent warmth throughout the western Pacific. Note the continued presence of this warm pool this season. Interestingly enough, despite the below average season to date in terms of temperature, the MJO has spent a total of just nine days in phase 8 thus far this season. Guidance has continued to overestimate the both the residence time and amplification of the MJO in this phase and there are indications that continues to be the case. The implication of this could potentially be a trend towards more of a Miller B type of evolution throughout the week, not unlike what occurred last week, which is something to watch. This is reflected in the CPC analog guidance. The bottom line is that a major form is favored near the east coast next weekend, details to be determined.

Heh....I wonder if we don't rug-pull the Miller A component of this again....I spy with my little eye a cream-pants analog for SNE. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/major-follow-up-potential-looms-next.html

This even is comparably to only two other storms since I moved to Methuen in October 2018, that being December 1-3, 2019, and January 7, 2024; however, both of those systems melted fairly rapidly with sustained warmth imminently on the horizon. This most assuredly looks to be the most impressive stretch of winter since moving here given that warmth is nowhere in site at this time-The SNE snow drought is dead...rejoice.

Yea, whatevs...I figured Monday was always mostly rainbows and unicorns, anyway...any additional just a bonus.

ineedensembles

No complaints on this event....it hit the lower end of my expectations, and I missed out on the enhancement I had hoped to get, but I can not in good faith bitch about this pattern.....now, if next week is LBSW, or nails se MA and skims me, check back.

Idk, but I know late in the game it had the enhanced bands se of me, which worked out.

I fully expect to get screwed on today's stuff.....I'm sure it will be more CJ. Note moving forward with more storms in the pipeline...toss the globals on CF placement, far and wide. NAM nailed it. being pinned to the N shore and near 128. GFS and EURO had it up by me.

Yea, the CF never got quite far enough inland for me. 17.25".

The 2020-2021 analog had that....plus, while I didn't include 2014-2015 and 2012-2013 due to ENSO, they were decent analogs. 2014-2015 was an exceptionally strong QBO/solar combo analog...best out there.

More room for track to go awry, as well....but not sure I have space for me 2 feet more, anyway.

If you're looking for truly high end amounts up here, you'll find out.