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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
Recent Profile Visitors
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
40/70 Benchmark replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
4.65" on the month. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That looks best in December and gets progressively worse. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I bet we see the PDO ascend to near neutral between now and the end of November. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I saw that post concerning October and viewed it as good news. I still remember when you schooled me on that as a weenie back in the fall of 2006....we had this big block in October and I got all excited, and you went on about how it meant +NAO later and how it would be an epically warm winter.....rest is history. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There was a historic storm during both months....obvioously March was the larger scope, but that 92 nor' easter was easy for the NE...historic CF and up to 4' of snow in the Berkshires and 3' in the Worcester hills. -
Yea, a bit of irony...I get it. I don't lose sleep over it....if I'm being honest, I can see the issue with celebrating Colombus given the history there, even Redskins given the racial connotation, but I have no idea what was wrong with the "Indians".....I'm Irish, and couldn't give a rat's a$$ about the "Fighting Irish" having a bit of a drunken, pugilist connotation there. I appreciate the humor.
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Very true...I usually don't do that, so my bad there.
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I'm not sure I'd call that a melt...is that how you perceive dissenting viewpoints?
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Should be the least shot at 80 of the season...not counting Xmas Eve, when Tip's Hadley Cell ventures down the chimney to devour all of the childrens' toys.
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I love the Cleveland Indians and Washington Red Skins.....Chief Wahoo FTW.
