Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    79,766

  • Joined

  • Last visited

6 Followers

About 40/70 Benchmark

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

Recent Profile Visitors

122,561 profile views
  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's the -PDO in and of itself that is significant, but it's how we are getting there...this isn't our grandparent's EOF.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not at all what I said. Who declared victory in October? 1.2 is such a tiny area it isn't even possible to he convectively dominant. The most prolific convection is actually south of Hawaii...which is independent of what I think will go on in the higher latitudes.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, you're fine...nothing wrong with a healthy debate..no one is out of line. All I'm saying is I am growing quite confident that that current in conjunction with other factors is going to foster a pattern in the higher latitudes that is absolutely independent of the strongest El Nino in history...not 'trump' it. Obviously much more in depth in a few weeks for those who have the time to delve in.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to pose this question again...which is rhetorical for me because I know the answer...identify the bonafide El Niño events with no MC forcing and a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ditched the MC idea over the summer...he misunderstood my post...in fact, the dearth of MC contribution is in integral part of my final thesis.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It also extends further west...it's just more expansive and intense.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    No issue with that....December should be similar.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution".
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....about 150W....that is what was in the MC previously. I have a question for you guys..name me all of the El Niño events with a very warm Kuroshio current east of Japan like we have now....then, once you do that, do me a solid and eliminate the ones with ample MC contribution and let me know the ultimate list. I think the folks whacking it to subsurface erotica need to remember that absolutely nothing operates in a vacuum...not even the most intense El Niño in history.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    We don't know how it's going to work out....maybe it won't end up mattering and the eastern convection will dominate for a 1997 replica, but I think ignoring alternative outcomes is silly. You can't just pretend the dual forcing isn't there on modeling.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015 and especially 2023 had the warmth enhance by the MC convection and 1997 had one clean convective node the east. I don't feel like you are being entirely consistent in that you obsessed over the MC activity in previous seasons, but now you ignore that warm pool since it's in the central Pacific.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Literally no one said that......arguing for competing forces to emerge mid season and claiming something is "more important" are two different statements. It's not a matter of something else "trumping" the El Niño, but rather how other factors interact with it and the rest of the hemispheric landscape.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's because the El Niño forcing is the only game in town right now .....as the season goes along, it's going to get some competition from the west that 1998 didn't have once some of these gradients steepen. I never debated intervals of record warmth...but it's not going to be wall-to-wall. The first half will be very mild and that will not be negated...no way.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.
×
×
  • Create New...