40/70 Benchmark

MJO has actually really amped up of late. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

It's like the pre Xmas 2024 event, but stronger storm and better airmass.

Yes, good call.

I added this after: . (Phase 8) it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed. This is why.

It's not impossible....phases are usually flawed and complicated...odds are that it will be imperfect, but probably not in that precise manner given the lead time left. That doesn't have to mean we get a blizzard, though.

I should have checked the MJO before whining about confluence....def my bad on that. I don't look deeply until I blog.

I'm always leery of predicating any forecast on phase 8 until at minuscule lead time....it's become a unicorn since the west Pacific warmed.

Yes, this is what I have been saying, which is why it's important to get ample mid level dynamics on the interior CP.

I think it's more IP/dry slot risk, at least off of the cape...but we aren't quite there yet.

I will get pounded for this, but I'll take the March 2001 risks as opposed to what was modeled......

Get to school, junior

Get outta my head.

He has, but to TBH, it's a pretty different landscape from what his looked like 2 days ago.

I think this is still in flux, but I won't begin my deep dive until tomorrow.

Boris, I kind of feel as though that evolution is akin to an inverted trough in that while it is not physically implausible to be the final outcome, it's more likely to a provisional solution as the model attempts to reconcile previous depictions of the evolution with what will actually happen.