40/70 Benchmark

Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated.

I think that tells you all you need to know in terms of seasonal temp anomaly, which really only has about a 1/10 chance of being cold in this modern era, anyway...so it really doesn't tell you much.

@raindancewxMakes perfect sense to me....1997 obviously for ENSO given intensity, but the rest are great polar analogs...only one I don't have is 2018, but that will probably be there when I do the extra tropical Pacific next month.

You missed my point. I agree it favors the mid atl for above average snowfall, that isn't my point. The "equal chances" stance is crap. Make a call. I'm not directing this specifically at you.

I thought that was just December...

Yea, basically 1982-1983. 2005 was a top 3 season in SNE....I don't expect that.

I'm sure below average, but LES belts are a wild card. 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016.

I could see a situation like 2005, 2015 and 2016 where we flip with a big storm the last week of January, but it would be a mild month in the mean.

I'm not talking about early on...forget that. December is going to be warm. Case closed. But some guidance like the JMA and EURO are trying to pull it back far enough west to salvage January....that is what I am skeptical of. I think that guidance is overdone.

Exciting stuff....there is a unicorn scenario in there which it pulls everything just far enough to act like a Modoki, but I would only bet on that for small periods right now.

I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?

I don't even do maps..I do a snowfall table and give ranges.

If I had a snowfall map right now, it would look like raindance's.

I could not agree with raindance more....my QBO composite is a bit different, but he just echoed that premise of my write up last night with absolute surgical precision in just a far more condensed manner. Here an excerpt from my work: Key Factors to Potentially Fuel More Active Second Half than Currently Forecast The preliminary Eastern Mass Weather polar composite is littered with seasons that underwent a notable transition from a benign December-January period to a rather frenzied February and/or March, as El Niño peaks and undergoes a subtle change in orientation. It was mentioned that this is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance. It was postulated that these forecasts are overstated and exaggerated, and are likely to be transient in nature. However, it was also asserted that the forecast unprecedented intensity of El Niño should be of sufficient magnitude to at long last shift the western Pacific warm pool, which has been a fixture for a over a decade, further to the east. The question is whether it simply shifts to the dateline and acts as a Modoki, or even further east, which would heighten the odds of a very mild outcome, per the intense/east-based El Niño composites. Another option is for it to not move enough, which may produce an outcome similar to the MC-oriented 2023-2024 season, which is viewed was the least likely outcome. At the very least, the European seasonal guidance is supporting the current forecast for a mid season transition to greater volatility, but it looks to be even more exaggerated given it's assessment of the January polar domain. Perhaps the eruption of Mount Agung was not justification for the outright dismissal of the 1963-1964 QBO analog from the polar composite, however, there is plenty of time to assess that decision as subsequent trends are modeled and future data is digested.

What I did tonight is just one part of what will be the full outlook...I also do a whole section on the extra tropical Pacific, which I haven't even touched yet. I also consider some sensible weather analogs from the summer across the country...this is just the first piece to the puzzle.