40/70 Benchmark

https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/isaias-poses-imminent-threat-to-gulf-coast-by-early-saturday-am-as-first-hurrica/ Isaias First Call:

Ah...didn't know about antecedent conditions...

I think that is implicit in the tone of the NHC public products, but yea...I mean, it won't even matter in terms of surge.

Lilly is about the most profound example that I can recall...went from about 145mph to 100mph upon LF near the TX/LA border in 2002.

It's easy to grow complacent and fall victim to recency bias, and I know we have had some feast right up to the shore in the gulf of late, but I don't think this is Michael.

Not to undermine hydro concerns, which will be plentiful near the shore, but hopefully progressive enough to limit freshwater flooding.

Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....

What is the best link for the deep mind ensemble suite? Ugh...I didn't want to, as I'm about to jump into winter outlook mode, but the tropics call. Man, I'm sick-

I was thinking last night that the correction vector is usually east with a poleward moving tropical cyclones and an approaching front.

Thanks. Yea, this admin. has killed funding for data......it's why we lost N/CAR1 and the monthly QBO tabular data is no longer updated.

Yea, I found that, but not the super ensemble plot...his data seems to be in flux as he is in the process of moving to that site.

Anyone have latest links for Tomer Burg super ensemble and TCHP maps? Been away during the CONUS tropical respite over the past couple of years and some of my links seem to no longer be valid....Tomer seems like he is moving his stuff around. Found this one for TCHP, but don't love it. https://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/cgom/OceanViewer/index_phod.html# This was my go-to, hasn't been updated for a couple of years. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/goos/gliders/images/tchp_conditions_latest.png

Yea, should be more a hydro concern than a wind issue....strikes me as a system that will be weakening well before landfall.

The forecast track and storm motion keeps the center over relatively deep heat content. Obviously, shallow SSTs remain quite high and untapped due to limited frontal progression and miniscule TC activity so far this season. The system will not be a slow mover, so we must depend on the timing of development and changes in atmospheric conditions: How fast does the TC intensify versus how fast favorable atmospheric conditions deteriorate to hostile? The key limiting factors up to landfall are increasing mid-level shear and potential dry air encroachment to limit or weaken landfall intensity. Looks like minimal cane landfall given just a cursory glance at things...if it looks a bit more compelling tomorrow I may write it up.

Not really...I basically agreed. Lol