40/70 Benchmark

Gotta be careful, though....2023 mimicked modoki forcing, but it was because the west Pacific was so warm, so it actually created a MC influence...which was wretched.

Yea, here, as well...except for 1982, which was around normal.

Yea, the El Niño hype is unreal...and it has nothing to do with me having an aversion to a warm winter because I think that's likely, anyway.

Even 1997-1998 had a great event just before XMAS up here...only one that had literally nothing was 1972...you could say 2015, but that season had the January blizzard, it just skirted south of me.

I'll be shocked if we get through the early 2030's without a flip.

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

Okay, yes...fair post. To me, it makes sense that the strongest of ENSO events, which are El Niño, reverse....but I can't say definitively that that trend will not cease with more data. We will just have to see. I wasn't trying to be dismissive, so sorry if it came across that way.

Thank you. January 7th, 2024 was an incredible event for me.

You know we're screwed when Chris starts saying "it will be interesting to see".....thereafter, you can insert a means for the demise of the impending winter. Are you able to access the latest ERA 5 data...ie for the entire month of March? I am encountering the same issue as with NCAR...

I don't expect it to be as warm as 2023-2024 in the northeast.

It's undoubtedly the best indicator...follow the $.

Do you have the link for the site that was used to generate that map?

Chris, I am unable to use the ERA 5 data set to retrieve the latest data, either...am I missing something?

What an absolute disaster that they have ended the NCAR reanalysis.