40/70 Benchmark

Yes. This is what I tried to convey in my First map...I didn't explicitly display 20", but denoted that amounts in excess of 18" are possible in select areas.

I think anything over 18" is a bonus.

Will, where is Jan 7, 2024 track?? I assume it was between the islands and BM?

Wouldn't that downslope you, too?

Let's remember it is the ICON.....

I would just like to see it track close enough to keep the winds more ENE, than NE.

Yet it keeps ticking up QPF....wonder if that increase is suspect then...

Geez...12z EURO gave me 20"+

Pike or NH border?

Not with SWFEs usually....if there is, it doesn't work out.

That's more upslope than a front....only issue I have with it is I would have included East slopes or ORH hills and Monadnocks.

BTW, last night and today was def a net-gainer for me....the 2" of fluff hardly melted with a high of 43.9 and low dews. Will do a pre-storm depth measurement later this weekend, but must be at least 6" still.

He was "meh"ing the impact of mixing, though.....doesn't count.

I would want to be above 500', but especially 700'.

Excerpt from my early November outlook....note that we also did indeed get an early reversal like 1981. January 17, 1971: PV Split December 4, 1981: PV Displacement February 11, 2001: PV Split January 2, 2002: PV Displacement February 22, 2008: PV Displacement January 7, 2013: PV Split February 12, 2018: PV Split March 20, 2025: PV Displacement The majority of the SSW events are split between the mid winter months of January and February, with three events per month. There is also an outlier event in December,1981 and March 2025. The primary analog events of January 17, 1971 and February 11, 2001 were both accompanied by PV splits and are the only two members to appear in both of the QBO and solar analog composites. The primary analog event of February 12, 2018 also ultimately culminated in a split of the PV, and is a member of the QBO and ENSO composite. This lends more credence to the mid winter outlier scenario that contains 6/8 the analogs. Thus the favored timeframe for a SSW and subsequent split of the polar vortex is during the January 17 to February 17 timeframe, with an increased emphasis on the latter portion of this window, which favors late season NAO blocking to commence roughly in early March.