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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That graphic should read "with reduced subsidence into MC"...I'll have to correct that later. Tough catching everything with 4 kids under the age of 7
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see how that has edged eastward a bit relative to the mean positioning from the past decade.... I expect that to the theme of the winter....better, but not quite there yet. Excerpt from my June update: What this implies is a season that will maintain some milder warm MC influence in the mean, especially given the degree to which intense El Niño events elevate global temperature, but with greater variability, which may very well appease east coast winter enthusiasts during the climatologically favored interval of the coming winter season. Indeed, it appears as though the wise early hedge is for winter 2026-2027 to have multiple personalities with increased volatility.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely expect MC forcing for much of December and maybe into some of January. Ironically enough, if @snowman19is right, and we are able to vanquish the MC for this season, then it probably means a somewhat colder first half.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I would gamble with that season again....it could have easily been like 1982 with near average snowfall if that February blizzard made it like 100 miles further north. Just accept that it isn't going to a cold season in the mean.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gun-to-head, I think our area may end up colder than 2015-2016, even though it may be comparable or warmer on a national level.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This sums up my feeling....the Pacific will be better than 2023, but we still have work to do.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    My interpretation of the JMA and CANSIPS is that they are seeing something real, but are overemphasizing it. Regardless, it does bolster my confidence in a favorable period of Modoki like forcing during the second half. That said, I would agree with Snowman, and most, that we aren't getting a Modoki set up in the seasonal mean with an El Nino this strong.....I think that is what many register it as when those seasons are used as analogs and that should not be the case.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    BINGO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may be NDJ.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5??
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely done better with that past few years.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a bias...it's human nature. If anything, I have overcompensated the past couple of years and it's probably at least in part why I didn't go as cold as my narrative implied last year when I clearly should have.
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