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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, phew...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    They were both brutal...like...how painful? Slam the refrigerator door shut on my balls, or kick me as hard as you can?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where is that? Nationally last year wasn't close to 1995-1996. Here is the PNA from last winter DJFM: 2026 -1.41 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 That is very favorable?? It was the orientation of the PV that saved us, not the PNA. Very predictable outcome considering the high solar/extreme easterly QBO predisposition towards intense mid winter +TNH regimes. In fact, strong +TNH is often accompanied by RNA. It did coincide with an interval of PNA from mid January into February in this case, which probably heightened it, but the PNA was not last winter's defining teleconnection. Strong +TNH season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I Iike that analog better from a +TNH (High solar/E QBO) perspective....2015 would have been my top polar analog had it been cool ENSO, but wish I had still used it. I'm not going to be as ENSO restrictive with weaker events moving forward, especially as ENSO continues to wash out some. The extra Pacific was much more hostile in general than 2015, which is somewhat related to ENSO, but def. a great polar analog.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    You understand both can be true, right? It's not as cold as the 1970s...got it.....but last season was not as conducive to sustained cold and high latitude blocking as 1995.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think the increasing predisposition towards +NAO and +WPO is in part a byproduct of CC, but it's not the only factor...there are other reasons why 2025 was not as favorable as 1995. That being said, would an identical pattern be as cold? No...agree, there.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the problem with any issue as politicized as CC....no one is ever going to "win", or change their mind because the data is always going to be shoehorned into a specific ideology. We could end up somehow having this winter be colder than last year and I would bet my life they would find a way to link it to CC.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    So weren't the solar cycle and the state of the northern Atlantic....both of which were much different from 1996. Chuck and I were both pretty accurate with that.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...weakening correlation due to the the ambient warmth washing it out, which is why it's facing more hemispheric competion.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies. Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree Dec probably sucks.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    For anyone wondering about the source here...great tool: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it has value for higher end events, but some may interpret it too reductively...IE, lower RONI=Weaker EL Nino=colder. I interpret a lower RONI in a high-end event as more competing forces around the hemisphere than would normally be expected with such a high ONI, like we have spoken about. Having a lower RONI and the ONI in an El Nino is often an ominous sign for NE snow lovers IMHO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean the North Pacific pattern per se...I didn't even use 2015 as an extra tropical Pacific analog. I mean that I expect the degree of MC influence to be similar to 2015. The PDO will be much lower.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Will be interesting to see how close we get this year...my guess is 2015 like.
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