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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
Recent Profile Visitors
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Just be careful with that severe-weather-weenie site. -
We probably need something like this to reconfigure the Pacific, even if it means this coming season sucks, of which I am not convinced..
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
40/70 Benchmark replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
.94" -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, I hear that....but first of all, I feel as though at this range, the reluctance to forecast an event of an unprecedented magnitude/nature should take precedence with any ultimate capitulation reserved for closer lead times. In other words....in July, it's safer to heavily incorporate analogs and if it still looks unprecedented later this summer and into the fall, then revisit. Secondly, this is just me musing when I offer guesstimates in the forum like that...it's not as though I'm issuing any type of published forecast online or anything. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I was saying it would end up centered around 140W. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts.... -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, I know...he has a lot to offer...he used to DM me some times in the lead up to large events. He just doesn't take this site seriously, which is fine, but in that case just lurk. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift in the north Pacific over the past couple of years. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The warmth isn't relegated to the east, though. We could see a sequence like 2016 with some extreme intervals of winter weather mixed in...it just won't be sustained.
