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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will be another deep -PDO, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will get a se tought.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Precisely what we don't want.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    No chance this ends up like 2009-2010. 1982 is the ceiling, 2015 the floor.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I do not agree with @mitchnick...I think the modoki index is going to be pretty useless this season...TBH, I wonder if that is losing utility like the ONI as a byproduct of CC. I bet the key is going to be watching the relationship between the RONI and ONI...the larger separation (assuming RONI is lower), the more ill-defined the Aleutian low/se trough will be, and the shittier the eastern winter. We may need to come up with some sort of index for that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be good news IMHO...don't get me wrong, I'm know it will be warmer than average, but like 1982-1983, that scenario would likely entail some bonafide period(s) of winter.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I figured there were some southern sliders in there because December and March had very little snowfall up here, despite not being prohibitively warm at all.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect to do a pretty deep-dive on the RONI/ONI relationship in my outlook this year because I feel that is going to be even more crucial than modoki index to be perfectly honest. I don't care if the SST pattern looks modokiish if the west Pacific is a hot tub and we can't pop an appreciable Aleutian low.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens. I think 1982-1983 is a best case scenario assuming El Niño gets as powerful as some are suggesting. Looking back at the local climo data....winter was even better than I thought. Three storms over a foot in my area. December/January/March were slightly above normal temps and February slightly below normal. Snow pack peaked at 26" on February 11th....bit more than last year.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that we seem to be closing the gap between RONI and ONI....I bet we see more of an Aleutian low/SE ridge response if that is the case. 82-83 had decent NE snowfall even though it was warm in the mean.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still feel this will end up happening....sorry, @Stormchaserchuck1 Cool ENSO, anyway...we'll have to see about technical La Nina, but I would hedge yes.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    They need to start updating the QBO.....that is going to make forecasting the polar domain more challenging in terms of finding the best analogs if they don't resume at some point this summer. There is more to it than simply east vs west. Good point. I was bringing that up last winter and early on in the spring as an argument against super, but it clearly doesn't matter, at this point. Definitely going at least strong.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can generate on these two sites using ERA 5 dataset, Chuck....only issues are that the time periods are more restricted...ie I can't do DJFM, and there are no daily options....ie March 10-25, etc...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    These are the best I have for monthly composites right now.. https://climatereanalyzer.org Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5. So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.
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