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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's curious that the seasonal models and Chuck's formula are flagging some -NAO because I agree the background is hostile.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    1983 and 2016 both had minor warmings.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a minor warming (non-reversal) and wave-1 reflection event latter January into early Feb.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, right.......but even considering that logic, you would think that there would be some additional give relative to 2023, whereas that former regime even more deeply entrenched....I mean, El Nino is stronger...PDO is less negative and the warm pool is further east. This is why I believe there is more wiggle room for a window later in the season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe latter January...I think we all agree that the seasonal mean will be tough sledding, no pun intended lol
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just speaking of the image Chris posted.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every intense EL Nino has had it...only that was fairly neutral was 1982.....but I think that +WPO is part of the reason why February maybe somewhat better.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Has to be mainly attributed to daily mins...just guessing....although certainly the past couple have been cold.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems as though the mid latitudes are just mired in this cool ENSO residue regardless of how pervasive El Nino grows in the tropics...and any assertion of El Nino in the mid latitudes just conspires with antecedent La Nina flavor to foster this even warmer, hybrid regime of sorts with the bifurcated Aleutian low...each node in an awful spot INVO the Bering Sea and SW CONUS, respectively.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think latter January into February would turn out better given less MC influence, but maybe a warmer earlier portion of the season biases the seasonal mean warmer. I don't know of anyone offering resistance to the notion of a very mild December and January in the mean, so any uncertainty is surrounding February.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like 2023-2024 to me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder what @bluewavefeels about the fact that we haven't seen the big GOA low yet, and what that could mean if we don't...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only thing I like as much or more than cold and snow is getting the forecast right, so there is nothing worse than when I go cold/snowy and winter sucks...last thing I want.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh...I just ran that narrative through AI and needed to go cyber-stroke after reading the response. All I can say is we had better get that pig GOA low soon.
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