40/70 Benchmark

Yea, 95 was a decent Pacific analog, but I didn't care for it in the polar domain.

I think we have to closely compare this with 2023-2024 and remain vigilant and mindful as to what the displacement of warmth in the Pacific basin denotes....may not be as simple as "modoki, disrobe". It won't be as bad as that year because the Pacific is changing, but I wouldn't lock in a full-fledged modoki yet, either.

Right, but I think even the blizzard-zone would like to load the dice a bit more favorably with a somewhat weaker ENSO relative to that season.

Winter is going to be mild...let's get that out of the way....but at least a basin-wide deal like 2015 allowed for a couple of wintry intervals, and maybe if it's a somewhat weaker version we can get away with a bit more. That's all I mean when I say "weaker"...I'm not trying to be one of those social medaiologists that are getting roasted by snowman on twitter.

I could see a somewhat weaker version of that.

It looks like a weaker El Nino....I would toss that for now.

What does it look like in the ENSO region?

@bluewaveLooks to me like the Pac jet was up to it's old tricks again in March, as the blocking for met winter abated and the MJO, albeit largely favorable, remained weak.

Yea, I could buy some vestige of it remaining, but it's probably overdone.

Ask the White House...

Ironically enough, the MJO actually spend a lot of time in phase 8 the latter half of the month.

MAGA Make Analysis Great Again.

WTF.....going to refrain from anything that could be conceived as political discourse, but I have my opinions as to whom the ire should be directed.

I have noticed....so we don't have means to plot H5 beyond March 17, 2026 for now?