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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but it is my belief that we will have less MC influence than 2023 and more variability than 1997 due to the magnitude of warmth throughout the basin. That said, we shouldn't have the early season blocking that 1997 did due to the different solar and QBO factors.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay. The NDJ period trended towards a greater SE trough.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree that it's more east-based than 1997, but that is beside the point. You are obsessing over the temp anomalies themselves....it will be above average. We get that. The model will be too cold...got it. But why is it trending colder this late in the game is my point.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important not to automatically dismiss the correction towards default El Nino leading into the strongest El Nino in history.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but was there a trend towards a more defined se trough this late in the game? I feel like that is what is important because call me crazy, but this may just be the year when a correction towards default El Nino may be the correct adjustment.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's probably due to the anti-2023 effect, which demonstrated that weaker doesn't necessarily mean colder. Guidance is probably picking up on the reduced MC competition, thus the less inhibited se CONUS trough expression.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That one may have 2009-2010 like potential as we near solar min and potentially continue to relax the Pacific.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's much more for the east coast than your area, but def. get the point.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is I gave that up in March.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You just described 75% of social media.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I misunderstood....right. I agree with that. It was obvious. As far as the ELI goes.....it's really not even worth arguing bc it's a moot point this season, anyway given the degree of warmth in the basin. That being said, if anyone uses that index exclusively to assess ENSO orientation moving forward, there will undoubtedly be issues....although that can probably be said about any particular metric.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't feel that ENSO is coupled with the tropics right now? I guess we can agree to disagree, then. I prefer a to use all of them TBH, and they all imply the same thing...ENSO is driving the tropics attm.
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