40/70 Benchmark

Same page with him on that, but I think we see a reversal in February.

December will be very good for us...it's the mid Atlantic that will take the shaft. Not worried in the least. My December analogs show this well.

I think I'll do fine in December.

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

The cold isn't going to just surge in here with at least minor resistance from the PNA...not the arctic stuff, anyway...it will take a week or so into December.

I think that is the favored outcome.

I meant to look through the behavior of the MJO for my entire analog set in putting together the forecast at the end, but I forgot to do it...if I mess up the December progression and rush the warmth, that is why.

This is my complete December list: December Analogs: 2021, 2017,2008, 2007, 2000, 1981, 1970 Seasonal: Primary Sensible Weather Winter Analogs (*Denotes Strongest Analog): 2024-2025, 2021-2022, 2017-2018, *2000-2001, 1970-1971

I liked Dec 1970, 2007 and 2008 as SWFE analog months.

I haven't started looking at discrete threats....still in cool-down mode after my seasonal deep-dive. Probably fire up the package next week.

No, I don't expect you to get screwed badly in a SWFE...maybe a bit less, but not pantsed. That is more likely in a coastal later in the month.

Folks also need to remember that the MJO isn't the sole pattern driver...it's an element that can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with the background forcing. Ie...it's one ingredient in the dish, not the main course.

Absolutely....especially closer to the latter portion of that period.

I thought I just mentioned the MJO in my reply...?