40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I don't love snow prospects in February...actually like March better.

Shouldn't even be a lag with ample antecedent blocking...another consequence of me missing the current blocking is that we won't have to wait until March to feek the impact of the mid month SSW.

Well, to be fair....I've been too warm all season with respect to my Outlook last fall, despite nailing the pattern save for the late January -NAO.

Can we send a storm to the glue factory?

That's about as boring a two weeks as you will find at peak climo.

The more you have, the more is lost to settling/sublimation.

The concern there is the gradient between the NAO block and the se height bump via RNA....I think I'd prefer to play it safe and just do overruning rather than try for a coastal in that setup.

Nice looking tarrot card.

+QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.

Seasonal forecasting is like any other challenging endeavor...put the work in to learn from your mistakes and you'll be successful. Some are challenge-averse and that can't be helped.

I've been feasting for 3 months TBH.

I beg to differ.

Separate.

That is my inclination.

Depends on orientation.