40/70 Benchmark

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see. CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.

So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.

I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough? I think they are wrong on that.

Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.

I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys. https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.

It's a possibility this year-

Yea, that is about is quickly as you will ever see it, so agreed.

Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.

Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.

I think we'll see a month that is decidedly positive.

I would gladly take a repeat of that winter minus the trough down to the Baja....would have been a good season with a more pedestrian RNA.

Not happening in this area.

I said a "warmer version of that season adjusted for climate change"....which means it can still be a valid analog.