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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, last year was still close enough to the max that geomagnetic energy, which lags max by a couple of years and is most highly correlated with +NAO, hadn't really kicked in yet. My solar composite (top right) looked like the rest of my composites last year, which resembled the ultimate pattern.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This goes along with the blocky March theme that I just mentioned....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March. My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the heat in the Pacific is going to be the main driver one way or another this winter for sure.....agree on that.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see the mean being more like 140W, but either is reasonable.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm beginning my work on the polar domain, as far as solar, QBO, Atlantic subsurface (with help from Chuck) and ENSO considerations....I should have a more definitive stance by next week.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I highly doubt we see as much MC interference as 2023, and while I am not yet convinced that there will be less than 2015, I am certainly open to the idea.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's clearly BOSS in the tropics...just need to get that into the mid latitudes, which it ultimately will with any luck.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey @Stormchaserchuck1, what is the calculation of your NAO index right now?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I woke up to wet ground, so creeped into N fringe of MA.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
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