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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's not wishcasting if you read his posts, he expects competing MC forcing like 2023.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to be a torch.....but we had some shots back then that just didn't pan out. If things were timed differently, we could have availed of some -NAO periods...hell, my area pulled off a great event as it was just prior to xmas. Personally, I doubt it ends up as east-based as 1997...but if we don't cool the west Pacific off, then that would be even worse because it would mean MC competition as far as forcing. If we cool the west Pacific off and get a basin wide deal, then we have a shot at something.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way, we are getting a pig ridge in Canada...but we can either have a trough in the southeast, or a cool ENSO like se ridge. This why my 2023 outlook was such a dud...I didn't get that back then.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    A pure super El Nino would offer more hope for a wintry period than the warm/cool ENSO hybrid that we witnessed in 2023 and to a lesser extent, 2015....especially early in the season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is the first time I have every genuinely hoped you were right.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm open to an alternate solution, but I think the default expectation should be continued attenuation of the ability of warm ENSO to modulate the north Pacific moving forward.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tell me you're a weenie without telling me-
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you have to assume another La Nino given the consistent RONI lag.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, CC is limiting the utility of traditional indexes....we need a RONI for the IOD. I bet the modern IOD readings are falsely inflated due to the rising SSTs, so you can't assume this will entirely eradicate the La Nina background.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you could do that with any period....add March in and winter wasn't that cold.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, I'm just saying it's a consideration. I used to be oppose to it, but have started incorporating it a bit.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either way it will be mild, but we would at least have a shot at a decent stretch if you're right. So the +IOD wasn't that strong in 2015 and 2023??
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The coming winter season is goin to be a good test as to whether the absolute RONI value or the delta between it and the RONI is of greater significance. The key is whether or not we get that "La Nino" half-assed Aleutian low like 2023 again.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think keying in on major signals when developing an analog composite does have some value.
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