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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    92 here in the armpit of the MRV.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Was he really warm last winter? Any seasonal forecaster will bust badly from time to time if they are being honest. I've honed my El Niño intensity composites today and will give the EMI ones a quick check before my next update later this month.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance has intimated that it's shifting, as well...must be at least getting close. I do agree that the PDO will take a few, perhaps several, years longer.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, there was a modicum of truth to it in that we had a historic blizzard, and then a few weeks later a record cold snap...issue is he sensationalized the shift and implied that it would be sustained. There was definitely a shift, though. The problem was the first half of the season we had the marine forcing competing with the +ENSO regime, so the result was a horrid pattern with ridging displaced eastward into the NE, which was different from December 1982 and 1997. December 2006 was kind of like December 2015 and I fear the coming December may be similar. I think it was Chuck that said it fits the billing for +QBO, but getting ahead of myself there...I'm won't touch the polar domain until like August.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    See, I would term that "what other hemispheric influences are competing to alter it and how".....ie, while some are accentuated, other features are blunted. That is the essence of a lagging RONI value...whereas MEI/ONI are more likely to just be universally weaker and thus more prone to polar influences.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's too reductive and narrow in scope...it's fine to use it for historical ranking as long you understand exactly what it is conveying and why...otherwise, this is akin to ranking each winter by NAO or PNA....sometimes it works, but often times it doesn't.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Largely a weenie fallacy that the collapse of ENSO will "save us"...DT likes to clinging to that crap and always ends up backtracking at the last moment.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the traditional sense per ONI, but we have had some pretty robust cool ENSO seasonal signatures.......these RONI lags are a signature of the warming west Pacific, which constructively interferes with cool ENSO and negatively interferes with warm ENSO expression around the hemisphere...more specifically, while the ridge over North America is accentuated, the GOA low is blunted. It's this inconsistency that tends to mask the warm ENSO expression, while the traditional ONI fails to adequately capture the magnitude of the cool ENSO expression via the enhanced Aleutian ridge.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, RONI measures the associated mid latitude response relative to what is expected per ENSO climo....ie while one aspect of el Nino (Canadian ridge) may be well expressed, another be less so (Aleutian low), thus the RONI will still lag the ONI. Again, not to be redundant, but it is our innate proclivity as humans to be too binary with these concepts in our thought process.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have come to learn that RONI really isn't a great indicator of strength, but rather a measure of the degree to which other hemispheric forces (usually CC induced during the modern era) are competing with ENSO. Ultimately, the answer as to whether the ONI or RONI is of greater utility is more nuanced than the majority of those among weather circles perceive it as being, which is often the case. In reality they both seem to have some value.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's how I feel. I don't see it showing up in the seasonal mean like the CANSIPS implies, but probably periods of it, especially in the 2nd half.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we could see some patterns set up that resemble the CANSIPS output..maybe even the entire month of January or February, but not the seasonal mean.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's going to be warm in the mean. The question is will we have some respites from the jet...my early hunch is that we will.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't even think it's worth sweating those details....usually when it gets this powerful, it's safe to just concede warmth on par with an east-based event. But there are other factors that could foster the development of a favorable stretch(es), especially later in the season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    My El Niño intensity composites are pretty similar to his...few differences....notably, I consider 1972 as merely strong and 2009 as moderate.
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