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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
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Post less, sleep more
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think it will become more evenly distributed...I do agree that the EURO is overdoing the westward shift, as all guidance has been. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I was not, nor do I deny CC. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'm talking 3 months from now. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip. -
Matt is a helluva writer...does baseball and weather.
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Final Call for Major Hurricane Isaias...no changes in track, but slightly stronger. Landfall near Destin, FL at 11PM tonight with maximum sustained winds of 105MPH and maximum storm surge of around 10' in the vicinity of Choctawhatchee Bay, FL. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/final-call-for-dangerous-major-hurricane-isaias-approach-to-fl-panhandle/ Isaias Final Call:
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This won't weaken as much as Lilly...that went from 145mph to 100mph at LF.
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I still like Choctawhatchee Bay for max surge of 10'.
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Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.
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Yea, once it moves perpendicular to the shear, disruption to the circulation increases.
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Sat image reminds me of Opal.
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Yes, I though this window was going to close about 12 hrs early than it is. Nice from a met standpoint, not so nice for the Gulf coast.
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@WxWatcher007It was such a tough call on whether to pull the trigger on major peak or not when I issued the first stab on Wednesday...I'm happy with the forecast overall, but looks like I may have underestimated my 110mph peak a bit. I thought conditions would be hostile by dawn today, so that is the difference. Also happy with the Thursday night hedge for best deepening window.
