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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ultimately deemed 1997 worthy of inclusion in the final QBO composite, but agree it's not one of the stronger ones.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    AGREE.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The season. may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only rEAL weak spot is solar.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, models have also be underestimating that warm pool east of Japan, which is the primary driver of the residual -PDO...so that goes both ways...can be said for both competing forces.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we'll just have to see. I understand that....this is why it wouldn't be wise to hedge towards an outcome as severe as 1965, in addition to CC, of course.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Total agreement.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    You would think that would be reflected in the precip output, but perhaps the models are just in error in that regard. We shall find out. BTW, I think the break did you well....your approach to disagreement is noticeably different and great for discussion.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but you are neglecting the western portion of that "birdge", which actually has the heaviest precipitation anomaly...this is why I argue for increased variability relative to the super composite.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was arguing that the forcing would be little to the west of the super-El Nino composite due to that, and you disagreed....it was like a couple of weeks ago.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...like I said in my original point, which you disagreed with....PDO is not the driver, but it is reflective of the drivers, so it shouldn't be ignored.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not crazy about the JMA this season....it has continued to try to turn this event into a Modoki, which never made much sense to me, and makes even less since now that it's getting the warm pool that far east.
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