40/70 Benchmark

-EPO/+NAO with a PV near James Bay. January 2014, 2022, 2015

His thoughts..not mine, but I guess I could see it as a phase change to my +TNH

Truth.

Shocking it would favor that corridor.

Guy I talk shop with online is whispering about a big coastal between Jan 8-12.

Lightning accompanying downpour in Tewksbury

I'm largely ignoring AI guidance this season...they are in AAA in my view. Maybe ready for the big leagues next season...maybe consider as an ensemble at times.

Yea, this is probable a "one and done" forecast, like the last one.

I have to look at this over the weekend....I just briefly paid it homage on a wider, synoptic scale on Tuesday, but haven't yet done a deep dive.

It's probably right because it always is when it sucks....but of course fell flat on it's face 12/2.

This time of year, 40 hardly dents it...March and even latter February is a different story.

I'm sure everyone remembers how brutally awful I handled the El Nino a couple of years ago....was completely undressed by @bluewaveon how it would interact with the west Pacific. It was the best thing that ever happened to me in terms of my ability to forecast on a seasonal level

Ha...I remember that. Wow, that is weak.....lost some respect. Acknowledgement of errors is the primary catalyst for growth.

:crap: