40/70 Benchmark

Eh....to a point...there are disparate HC configurations for weaker vs stronger events and modiki vs east-base events...

Exactly as I explain it....weaker events are more prone to extra tropical (and arctic) influences.

Under an inch......AIT

@ineedsnowany accumulation?

I was trying to explain that to some degreed met in a Facebook group....the guy is like Tip, as he is so articulate and clearly knows his stuff. He was citing all of this support for his position that the higher terrain of ORH county would get at least an inch...and I was just like "Lets see what actually happens". Sometimes you need to put the computer down, toss the calculus 8 theorems and just look out your fuck1ing window to observe what has been happening the past 4-5 months.

Yup. Asstacular weekend and start of the week...I'm sure the balance of the week will be just peachy until we hit Saturday.

Any accumulation?

I knew he wouldn't...just weenied me out of retalitation like my toddlers would do, but crickets on the bet-

Its so early that its just an educated guess, so we'll see.

I actually think we could avoid it again.

Moregarbgage....all of the idiots....yup. I didn't see anyone worthy of actual consdieration do it.

At least its warm....maybe avoid shrivel?

I don't agree with that, but we shall see. Just an early hedge...my position could alwways change once I dig in.

Yea, I don't do summer forecasts...not the interest level and I would end up divorced, but consensus seems to be for a hot summer.

Looks like I was a hair too robust with the RONI peak...I had -1.2 to -1.4 vs the actual peak of -1.12. MEI peak forecast range was -1 to -1.2 and the actual peak was on the high end of the range at -1. I had the La Nina ONI peak between -0.6 and -0.8. Peak was -0.6. I was pretty accurate in terms of the peak, albeit at the weaker end of my range. Pretty impressive consiering the headfake by guidance late last fall and even into the early winter in cancelling La Nina. The comparison to the 2008-2009 event in terms of the late come back and shift west into more of a weaker Modoki worked out well.