40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I have been saying that I don't see this is an uber-El Nino that will fry the east. Generally agree, though haven't delved deeply into analogs at this early juncture. 2002 is one I speculated on.....just conjecture right now.

I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter.

Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard.

All joking aside, small sample size or not, the data that we have implies that an El Niño stronger than 2.0 is going to slide east...it's why the strongest events are usually east-based.

You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something.

Sure.....I've been at that point for about an hour.

Give a replica season of 1977-1978 and 1995-1996...I'll bet against a Feb 1978 redux and 127.5" of snowfall IMBY.

Right.

It would't be.

If you have ever taken the time to read through my stuff, you wouldn't be asking that question. The shear anomaly of an occurrence of that magnitude renders it unlikely, regardless.

See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process.

I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility.

I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome.

If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes.