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About 40/70 Benchmark

- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific. It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields. -
Yes, generating clicks....which is often the antithesis of sound meteorology. Same crap-maps every year...without fail. I know to ignore him, but the masses don't know any better.
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God, I can't stand him...biggest hack there is.
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He was okay on a seasonal level, but I remember he initially rushed the flip back to cold in January. He kept to trying to go cold again first week and I knew it would take until mid month. At least he owned it.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, those are the brief shots of possibly historic cold. Probably January, then wave 1 reflection triggers a flip of the ride to Greenland and the -NAO will be more protracted. See Jan-Feb 1983. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, okay....agreed. I thought you were implying that it may literally be negative...no way in hell. I agree that it could be boot leg. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes we can; it's gong to be positive. I'll bet you $500 right now- There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind. The PDO is another story, as that is much more nebulous. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I was referring to JB, not you. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Actually viewing the data that you're using is overrated. -
I think that tells you all you need to know in terms of seasonal temp anomaly, which really only has about a 1/10 chance of being cold in this modern era, anyway...so it really doesn't tell you much.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@raindancewxMakes perfect sense to me....1997 obviously for ENSO given intensity, but the rest are great polar analogs...only one I don't have is 2018, but that will probably be there when I do the extra tropical Pacific next month. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You missed my point. I agree it favors the mid atl for above average snowfall, that isn't my point. The "equal chances" stance is crap. Make a call. I'm not directing this specifically at you. -
I thought that was just December...
