40/70 Benchmark

We've been on the same medium range-page of late, but unfortunately, mother nature has been on a different one.

Yea, winter is not over...don't mean to give that vibe. Obviously I would have liked a blizzard, but I needed a break mentally and physically.

Yea, I had some people giving me the business about how there was strong support for a continuation of -PNA on guidance, blah, blah....well, any forecaster worth a damn doesn't blindly follow guidance. You get paid to discern when guidance is in error, so put the work in and figure it out. Well, I may not get paid for it (financially, but feeds my soul), but I did it.

Nah, I'm fine...I never dug into too deeply on this. Not like I had a map out or anything. I'm just gassed from January recap/February preview I did yesterday, all the while enduring a busy day at work. I wanted to go into vivid detail because it was an absolute clinic in seasonal forecasting.

Gonna check the F out over the weekend....need a break after yesterday's thesis and the ongoing butt-plug on guidance.

I love the "It's not going to snow, but I was still fascinated by all of the moving ennui particles on modeling...still interested in seeing just how it ultimately doesn't snow" I couldn't give two shits once I know it won't snow.

Yea, that's fair.

That had already happened by this point last week...running out of time.

Yea, if rest of 12z blows, I'm out.

Jesus, this is like the Philip Rivers of storms...every run there is a new spawn.

Yea, safe to say it's not merely an artifact of modeling at this point, we just need to mitigate it's influence somehow. Admittedly tall task at day 3 but not impossible.

Funny, Nova Scotia isn't lamenting the gradient. I understand the concept of it, but it's an oversimplification IMHO.....I think the struggle to phase near the east coast is probably related to CC, but more so due to the impact that it's having on the tropical convection patterns as the west Pac has warmed disproportionately fast. The gradient saturation idea doesn't really work for me because storms are phasing, just not where we want them to.

The middle of the month was pretty mild....while there were no exotically warm days, large positive departures were fueled by some mild days and balmy nights.

Haven't you gotten croaked by some big storms the past few years?

I'm probably a hair above average to date, but if we go 0-for the first week of February, then I'll fall behind again.