40/70 Benchmark

First 10 days or so I'm balls-deep in the outlook, anyway...then the last 20 days or so I'm just happy to be done and coasting to the holiday season.

Yea, weaker just allows for other influences to have more impact...which aren't necessarily cold influences. Weaker events are just colder on average because they aren't overwhelmingly strong east-based events, and thus have greater variability.

You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONi lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder".

Take out that west warm pool and I think 2023-2024 would have been in line with the ONI, which was bordered on super-designation. The expression was partially stifled throughout the hemisphere.

I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern.

If El Nino doesn't become exceedingly strong, I wonder if we don't see this same type of warm west/cold east pattern stagnate into next season...a la a 2002-2003 type of warm ENSO.

I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season.

Time to the subscriptions before the monthly violation.

Bit a coating starting when I left a couple of hours ago.

It began as snow around 6am when I left home.

Time for Kev to check out of S Wey

Looks like maybe up to an inch in a few spots Monday AM....back to check-out.

I hope it trends worse....last thing I want is to end up blogging for another marginal situation that doesn't produce. I'm content to be done.

That's how it looked here before the Monday cutter.