40/70 Benchmark

I know this isn't a SWFE, but the NAM is usually pretty good at resolving mid level thermals within 48 hours.

NAM has had that band locked since 12z while the GFS is ticking se and EURO is waffling. I am inclined to go NAM on that...especially since they often end up NW of where we think they will.

18z EURO was Jan 2022.

06z GFS had the death band about where I have it...from KASH to ORH..00Z has it from Taunton to KPYM. NAM has it a shade west of where I do...

GEM shaved QPF a bit around here, but low is dead-on last run...IDK, I'm just not that spooked and call BS on the rug-pull.

I've also learned that the best banding is usually NW of the best modeled QPF.

I'm not seeing any of the mesos do that....and other than 00z, it was basically noise, yet it was still shaving QPF...I don't buy that because I think there will be a deformation zone west of me...makes zero sense.

I'm not too worried about the GFS.

Exactly what I was thinking...

Why is the NBM so bonkers when nothing else is that high? GFS and EURO are such lower...

I don't anticipate many changes if any.... First Call:

This is 00z NAM

Can you run that for KLWM?