40/70 Benchmark

I don't think the fast flow will be a large issue this year.

Much more moisture available today, along with the warmer climate.

I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.

I don't see why it would be displaced southward...agree on northward.

Sorry for OT...honestly forgot which thread I was in.

Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad. I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

Given the pace of the tropical season, there isn't much to catch up on. Three blogs, though the last two are very deep.

My feeling is that more often than not, we are going to struggle with precip type, but the region still may very well score climo snowfall from the couple of events in which we do not have that issue.

Get out of my head.

That is exactly what I am grappling with. If your thinking is fixed firmly within the box with respect to seasonal forecasting, then your final forecast product is likely to suffer a large degree of error.

I will say that @Typhoon Tipwere musing just yesterday about a theoretical "unicorn-scenario" in which the residual cool ENSO residue retards the development of said GOA low in such a manner as to allow for that. Said impact would need to be both more subtle than 2023 and more apparent than 2015.

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one. Def. take my exact numbers with a grain of salt this year.

I am usually lethal with ENSO forecasting, but I will say that the unparalleled magnitude of this El Nino is really posing a challenge for me with respect to any forecast precision beyond the blanket "super-El Nino designation. I am someone who exhaustively parses data to come up with analogs to inform future intensity forecasts and it makes it difficult given that this one is in a class of one.

True, that is how I feel.