40/70 Benchmark

2016 sucked around here...basically for areas that whiffed on the blizzard.

2.21" rainfall on the month.

Deeply negative, no....but I think it will get more favorable in that domain during the stretch.

Yes, toss the Modiki crap...all guidance has been erroneously doing that.....but Cansips and JMA have been worst.

Nice.

I'm not forecasting above normal snowfall or below average temps for the season...just to be clear.

Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.

Wonder if anbody stopped and wondered what will happen if they issue a stop-payment on their subscription?

We have talked about this and it's the recent why I am employing the "reversal" terminology moving forward, rather than SSW to avoid these scientific inconsistencies.

On a national level, of course given the background warming in conjunction with how much OHC has built up to trigger this unprecedented El Niño, but I'm not concerned with that....no one in their right mind is disputing the notion of a very mild season in the DJFM seasonal mean. I don't think the folks like bviking, who laugh at each one of my insights, have really wrapped their minds around what I am saying. What I am focused on is that the prospects for a large east coast winter storm should be heightened relative to 2023 and probably even 2015 given the absence of MC convective forcing. Yes, this season is more east-based than 2015....but it's also less MC-based, as well. You can't obsess over the background warming and neglect the implications of having absolutely no convection in the MC because it means that source of destructive interference for major east coast cyclogenesis is removed during those fleeting colder intervals. I feel as though you are playing with fire if you disregard the prospects for any major winter weather along the east coast with a STJ that potent in conjunction with all CP and EP forcing....the reality is that ALL THREE of this seasons produced snowfalls of well over a foot on the CP of SNE, and 2/3 had substantial MC contribution, so I think folks need to cool it with the group think philosophy and pry open their minds a bit.

I assume this is a typo.....

Here is my track record for the 15 cities that I do seasonal snowfall forecasts for....mid Atlantic killed me in a couple of seasons....13th will be next week.

I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.

The system that dropped a 40_spot on PVD was just outside....