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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you can hedge in the narrative....not these asinine AI-generated graphics...agree, there.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    East-based composite versus Euro forecast:
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide forcing, despite east-based Ssts.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO hits that even harder. It's due to two things IMO....Stratosphere, but not what you think...wave one reflection, as opposed to SSW.....we aren't seeing a reversal IMHO. El Niño is also going to fade westward post-peak, so likely some periods that are more redolent of Modoki in the back half of the season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use it more for poleward Aleutian ridging in La Niña.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lines up well:
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.
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