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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Primshineweather.com?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like the trend on seasonal guidance is at least as, if not more important than the absolute data and CANSIPS keeps trending warmer and further south with that ridge...this is why February is now no longer above average precip for us, but if you look back at the 9/1 and especially 8/1 run, precip was way above average.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Trend of the CANSIPS is as I expected...its strengthening that ridge and edging it further southward. For instance, it's trying to do this for December. But I think we end up with something like this:
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't love the look of the CANSIPS in February....that looks rather suppressed at peak climo.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    4.65" on the month.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks best in December and gets progressively worse.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see the PDO ascend to near neutral between now and the end of November.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I saw that post concerning October and viewed it as good news. I still remember when you schooled me on that as a weenie back in the fall of 2006....we had this big block in October and I got all excited, and you went on about how it meant +NAO later and how it would be an epically warm winter.....rest is history.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    There was a historic storm during both months....obvioously March was the larger scope, but that 92 nor' easter was easy for the NE...historic CF and up to 4' of snow in the Berkshires and 3' in the Worcester hills.
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