40/70 Benchmark

No, the risk is not properly conveying an adequate sense of urgency concerning a landfalling hurricane. No one but we weather dorks cares if max sustained winds occur a mile off of the beaches, but the much larger deal is if significantly higher winds and surge than anticipated were to occur.

Catskills should do well.

Strong forecast. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/hurricane-isaias-landfall-accurately-forecast/ Hurricane Isaias Landfall Accurately Forecast Timing Slightly too Slow The center of the rapidly degrading eye of Hurricane Isaias crossed the coast near Destin, FL with 105MPH maximum sustained winds at about 930PM EDT. This was precisely as forecast in the Final Call issued this afternoon in terms of landfall locale and intensity, but the timing was about 1.5 hours faster than 11PM EDT forecast. Although the landfall intensity needed to be adjusted upwards slightly in the Final Call issued earlier today, the Destin, FL locale was consistent since First Call on Wednesday. Final Grade: A

I wonder if I hit my max surge mark of 10'? Killed it on LF locale and intensity. ...should be a quick post-mortem.

Post less, sleep more

I think it will become more evenly distributed...I do agree that the EURO is overdoing the westward shift, as all guidance has been.

I was not, nor do I deny CC.

I'm talking 3 months from now.

Heh...DT jumping on the "Second half Modoki" train....that is an exaggeration, but as I have ben saying, it will erode from the east, which will allow for more conducive mid seasonal flip.

Matt is a helluva writer...does baseball and weather.

Final Call for Major Hurricane Isaias...no changes in track, but slightly stronger. Landfall near Destin, FL at 11PM tonight with maximum sustained winds of 105MPH and maximum storm surge of around 10' in the vicinity of Choctawhatchee Bay, FL. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/final-call-for-dangerous-major-hurricane-isaias-approach-to-fl-panhandle/ Isaias Final Call:

This won't weaken as much as Lilly...that went from 145mph to 100mph at LF.

I still like Choctawhatchee Bay for max surge of 10'.

Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.