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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
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    Male
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    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope, literal- question mark was confusing, I guess. My bad-
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree...what I said. lol
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I love Chuck's formula, but I am skeptical of it this year with that signal.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guessing Feb 2015 was the one top-ten coldest. I wish we would focus a bit more on temp maxes instead of mean because I feel like the nocturnal element does inflate the degree of impact somewhat. I don't really care if its 21 on RAD nights instead of 18....I care how warm it is during the day and when it's precipitating. Don't get me wrong....I know it's warming, I'm not trying to steal anyone's climate change, but it's warming the most on clear nights and the days/stormy nights are most relevant to us.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's important to be mindful of both if you are genuinely interested in the weather and especially if you forecast. It's important to take CC into account in forecasts, so it helps to be in tune with the rate at which it continues to progress, regardless of whether the NE CONUS was in a pocket of colder air last season. It important to keep everything in context...that said, it was refreshing to confirm that CC is not prohibitive to good NE winters.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems that NAO is far more malleable and influenced by the solar cycle and ENSO than the AO, so I feel strongly that the AO will be lower than the NAO this season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I do see an opportunity for some of that, but I'm speaking of the seasonal mean. It clearly will not be the predominate DJFM pattern.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1, I think I know why the connection between intense El Niño and +NAO seems overstated....the causation for the +NAO during intense El Niño is likely more due to higher-end El Niño being favored during descending solar/peak geomagnetic energy, rather then the intense El Nino itself. Descending solar/high geomagnetic is the actual "smoking-gun" behind the +NAO causation, however, intense El Niño with all of that warmth leaking east does inhibit -NAO, I'm sure. The combo together is lethal if you're hoping for big blocking. https://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that persists through winter.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just brutal; the world stopped with the discontinuation of NCAR.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I know about that...but it doesn't have the monthly tabulations like this site (50mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data And this one (30mb): https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data They stopped updating in February.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    And of course we would have a season like that right after they stop calculating it monthly.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This isn't going to be cold in the mean like 2002.....too much warmth too far east for that. I think we can get some brutal cold, but it will be fleeting, like 2016 and 1983.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I was about to mention that....1997-1998 had that on display during -NAO, too. -NAO buys the coast a shot with marginal airmass and favorable storm track. Pacific def. won't be as favorable as 2009, albeit better than 2023.
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