Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Screw the Friday event. The storm for this time frame looks way better and has full model support...Gfs...euro...ggem...jma... And...it's backed by Psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Which means it us GUARANTEED to be over 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Punting a storm = bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Punting a storm = bad. There's still a thread for the Friday-whatever-it-is-inch-or-so-if-we're-lucky, but I actually agree with Ji, the timeframe early next week looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Kind of surprised that some people are downplaying the possibilities for Friday. Think this has good potential to be a good 4-8 or 6-12 inch storm for a good portion of the area. It's also within 3 to 31/2 days on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Kind of surprised that some people are downplaying the possibilities for Friday. Think this has good potential to be a good 4-8 or 6-12 inch storm for a good portion of the area. It's also within 3 to 31/2 days on the models. That discussion should probably be for the other thread on that storm, but if I am "some people", I am hating the way that upper levels are starting to look for that event, and the track looks awful for our area. Three days out etc., but, not feeling great about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That discussion should probably be for the other thread on that storm, but if I am "some people", I am hating the way that upper levels are starting to look for that event, and the track looks awful for our area. Three days out etc., but, not feeling great about it. I guess we can include you in "Some People". I was referring more to Ji who is already punting the potential of Fridays storm. Anyway, I'll keep the Friday storm discussion in the other thread just so "Some People" don't get their panties in a wad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm on the record as saying we'll have a decent storm before the end of January. Don't know when, and don't know how, but I've put my substantial reputation in the weather community on the line with that bold prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ji always focuses on the next fantasy and misses the storm right in front of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ji always focuses on the next fantasy and misses the storm right in front of him. Eh, I will hope for the best on the next one, obviously, but I really do like the set-up right behind it. And that is now in the 7 day frame, so not as fantasy as some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This thread is funny... I am on record saying it will snow Friday but I think its 1-3" for DC, maybe 2-4" for my area and Phin. Some would be very happy with that. I am looking for the big ticket event and I do feel the setup is more favorable for the storm in the day 7-8 time period. The H5 vort is digging much further south and there is more southern stream energy involved. There is also a -NAO breaking down as it approaches. This is a good setup for our area. Now the H5 has to track correctly but it at least has a chance, this storm Friday it looks like the H5 is not really digging far enough. The NAM and GFS took steps towards something more significant for our area the last run so hopefully I will go down in flames on that prediction. I still like the storm next week though, at least as much as possible for 7 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 God help you if this storm does not pan out. I named the storm after you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 God help you if this storm does not pan out. I named the storm after you Well last winter I went all in 4 times from 7 days out. 3 turned out a HECS, the 4th was OTS so I guess I am batting .750 right now. I do not like the setup next week as much as those last year, not even close, but I do think it has nice potential and if anyone else is waiting for a 6" plus event that has way more chance then the Friday storm for that if you are south of the PA border area. Its 7 days away so probabilities are low overall, but higher then I thought they were for the last few events. We have to get the H5 track south of DC if we want a chance at a significant storm. All winter the H5 track has been to our north, the models have tried to show big snow regardless but then pull it out from under us once inside day 4 when they see that the upper levels are just not supportive. I am done playing that game. This storm Friday has the same problem. What I like about the day 7 threat is that the northern branch is digging more and thus the H5 has a chance to track south of us if it can get far enough east before phasing. The thing to watch with that is if in future runs the trough starts to dig less or the H5 starts to cut up west of us. If that starts to happen do not believe what the surface says we are screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Overall the pattern has shifted some, and I like the changes after the storm Friday. It seems the models are hinting that the troughs will be a little sharper with more digging the next couple weeks. This is why I like the day 7 threat, look where the H5 track is Now look at the h5 track for the Friday storm... Obviously the h5 track is more favorable next week. Models have been screwing up the surface this winter but have actually been doing ok with the H5 patterns, they just seem to want to find ways at the surface to make it snow where the H5 says it shouldn't. The next 2 troughs after this one seem to want to dig significantly further south and that is why I am more "positive" about the setup next week. This is the fantasy land storm on the GFS, and again forget what the surface says (rain), look at the h5 track. I promise you if this is correct that will not be a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 in 8 days this could be a drizzle fest the way this yr has been with modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Overall the pattern has shifted some, and I like the changes after the storm Friday. It seems the models are hinting that the troughs will be a little sharper with more digging the next couple weeks. This is why I like the day 7 threat, look where the H5 track is Nice ridging out west, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Nice ridging out west, as well. the storm we just went thru looked kinda like that for a bit. i dont think i saved the images tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the storm we just went thru looked kinda like that for a bit. i dont think i saved the images tho. Good thing. I've already had my cereal this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the storm we just went thru looked kinda like that for a bit. i dont think i saved the images tho. The biggest threat I see to the day 7 storm is if the energy does hang back too much things would start to moderate before the storm gets there and its left behind with no northern branch to phase with. I like the setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The biggest threat I see to the day 7 storm is if the energy does hang back too much things would start to moderate before the storm gets there and its left behind with no northern branch to phase with. I like the setup though. You HAVE to be positive on this threat...it's named after you. If you go negative on it, a black hole will open up and suck the Earth in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 we gotta stop naming storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 we gotta stop naming storms I think we should just give them complicated ID numbers instead. - Storm 1-3746-AB-001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think we should just give them complicated ID numbers instead. - Storm 1-3746-AB-001 But then that requires coming up with definitions on how a storm is named - whether it's date, day of the week, snow/ice/rain, if it was a punted storm, or if Ian was actually optimistic. That's too much work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You HAVE to be positive on this threat...it's named after you. If you go negative on it, a black hole will open up and suck the Earth in. I am still on board its 7 days away it will go through some changes run to run, just stating that having that southern energy eject faster then the GFS did this run would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 ggem hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FINALLY a storm where the h5 energy is south of us and we need everything to trend north. I like these much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 FINALLY a storm where the h5 energy is south of us and we need everything to trend north. I like these much better. i think truncation and GFS stupidity killed our storm. Things are looking good. JMA had a near HECS yesterday and EURO showed about an inch of liquid. Im getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The one thing I really like is the strong high pressure showing up on the models over Southeast Canada and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12Z Euro says yes to Mr. Hoffman but brings the blowtorch along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12Z Euro says yes to Mr. Hoffman but brings the blowtorch along. Feb 5th last year looked like it would have temperature problems at this range also. I remember saying give me that H5 setup and I will take my chances with temperatures. I feel the same way this time. GGEM brings the low right up into Eastern VA btw, but its a good 3-6 of snow before it changes to rain. Either way expecting models to nail temps this far out is crazy, but this time we have a chance because the H5 setup is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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