A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Discuss here. My thoughts, OH Valley bowling ball. Rain concern level at 4/10. Amended title to reflect nebulus threat in mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Discuss here. My thoughts, OH Valley bowling ball. Rain concern level at 4/10. Wow..AKing starts a thread! Suspect this maybe the cutter that finally pulls down the Vodka cold lobe before pattern relaxes at end of January and then on to a mild February. Congrats Minny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow..AKing starts a thread! Suspect this maybe the cutter that finally pulls down the Vodka cold lobe before pattern relaxes at end of January and then on to a mild February. Congrats Minny! It was mostly an attempt to sever med-range discussion from the clipper thread. FWIW this does not smell like a cutter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It was mostly an attempt to sever med-range discussion from the clipper thread. FWIW this does not smell like a cutter to me. I know you mentioned Bowling Ball...we shall see....i think blocking relaxes to allow something to cut.....on a more SW/NE basis...should wash all Ohioans snow out ala New Years weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 I know you mentioned Bowling Ball...we shall see....i think blocking relaxes to allow something to cut.....on a more SW/NE basis...should wash all Ohioans snow out ala New Years weekend That washed all my snow out too The more i look at things, it looks like we'll have a couple waves eject pretty close to each other which should prevent monster storms and limit amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I know you mentioned Bowling Ball...we shall see....i think blocking relaxes to allow something to cut.....on a more SW/NE basis...should wash all Ohioans snow out ala New Years weekend I'll take it. Walked around Columbus in a t-shirt on NYE... Bring on the blowtorch and rain so I can wash some of the salt off my Mini Cooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12z GFS advertises a more potent clipperish type system around the 18th. The coverage is relatively narrow though, so this thing is gonna be tricky. Still a long ways out though, so lets hope this thing still exists as we go on in time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I know you mentioned Bowling Ball...we shall see....i think blocking relaxes to allow something to cut.....on a more SW/NE basis...should wash all Ohioans snow out ala New Years weekend As a staunch defender of those who say an anti-ohio bias doesn't exist here, ( I base it on the notion that no one could be that obtuse). Why do you have to make comments like this and make me (and our region) look bad? Back to next week...gfs from 120 to 168 looks like a clusterama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 No cutter, lets hope we can get even one piece of energy to come out of the NW and amplify, models continue to get weaker with each disturbance as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 <<<< Waits for somebody to post JB's thoughts on the storm >>>> ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As a staunch defender of those who say an anti-ohio bias doesn't exist here, ( I base it on the notion that no one could be that obtuse). Why do you have to make comments like this and make me (and our region) look bad? Back to next week...gfs from 120 to 168 looks like a clusterama. oh come on Buckeye no harm was meant by this statement...you are one of my favorite posters and have been for years. Meant no disresepct...but agree I do have a anti Ohio bias..but mainly south of I-70 posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 oh come on Buckeye no harm was meant by this statement...you are one of my favorite posters and have been for years. Meant no disresepct...but agree I do have a anti Ohio bias..but mainly south of I-70 posters fair enough, then i take back what i said....you're only 50% obtuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 <<<< Waits for somebody to post JB's thoughts on the storm >>>> ugh Don't forget Henry M. He made one of the dumbest sounding forecast calls last night when he said the Ohio Valley low would essentially "dominate the coastal" low and would shaft Long Island and Philly. Seriously, Henry M needs a refresher course in dynamic meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 <<<< Waits for somebody to post JB's thoughts on the storm >>>> ugh He was very acurate with this current storm. Called a track NW to around buffalo with a transfer about a week ago. Sure he is off sometimes but I feel better when he says a storm will track west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 He was very acurate with this current storm. Called a track NW to around buffalo with a transfer about a week ago. Sure he is off sometimes but I feel better when he says a storm will track west of the apps. Yeah, I don't know anything about him so I don't know if he is any good at what he does or not. I have heard from people on this board that he is a pretty good long term (seasonal) forecaster but is just as good (or bad) as any other forecaster when it comes to medium range forecasting. He does work for AccuWeather which means that he has to dramatize everything which I would find annoying as a client. As for the Henry M comment for Baro...I have seen a video of his and it was awful. Truly awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 JB is good, he over sells things, but he clearly has a knack of intuition for weather that helps him see things down the road more often then not. East Coast weenies are stupid by nature and do not realize things like JB will say East Coast bomb 5 days out have a wide precip map where potential heavy snow falls. then the event comes and the mid atlantic gets left out because of late development and all hell breaks loose and JB is then called stupid and wrong. no matter what event he gets thrashed by someone. of course sometimes models throw everyone off or he puts an idea out there doesn't work. But remember there are technical forecasters and there are entertainment ones and he is in showbiz of weather. Midwest folks 5 days out see model spread, JB says main snow between I-70 and I-80, storm ends up north we get nothing..I realize 5 days out it's impossible to know, so why blame JB. HM is a joke. I thought JB was the joke and HM was all good 2 years ago when I first saw the two of them, but I was wrong, JB is much smarter...just is a bit off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 <<<< Waits for somebody to post JB's thoughts on the storm >>>> ugh I'm assuming you are a meteoroligist given the red tag. Any thoughts on the storm potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12z Euro has a weaker system, 1008-ish centered over IL on the 18th. Decent hit for IA and northern IL and then parts of MI. Verbatim, a rain maker for places like LAF, FWA, DTW, etc...well a rain to snow situation for FWA and DTW anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12z Euro has a weaker system, 1008-ish centered over IL on the 18th. Decent hit for IA and northern IL and then parts of MI. Verbatim, a rain maker for places like LAF, FWA, DTW, etc...well a rain to snow situation for FWA and DTW anyway. Are there two lows that could possibly phase or does the midwest one lead to a coastal? I didn't see a southern low come out in front of the midwest low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Are there two lows that could possibly phase or does the midwest one lead to a coastal? I didn't see a southern low come out in front of the midwest low. Looks like a northern front-runner, which skims the U.S.-Canadian border, that pops a "southern" low that pops up through IL. And then of course, a coastal pops and destroys inland areas of New England (i.e. BOS sees rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Looks like a northern front-runner, which skims the U.S.-Canadian border, that pops a "southern" low that pops up through IL. And then of course, a coastal pops and destroys inland areas of New England (i.e. BOS sees rain). It seems we cant get a primary low to maintain its strength and not lose its energy to a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A rain maker? I must have read the maps wrong, from day 4-7 on the euro the 850s were below zero even south of STL the entire time. How does LAF get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A rain maker? I must have read the maps wrong, from day 4-7 on the euro the 850s were below zero even south of STL the entire time. How does LAF get rain 850 mb temps do stay below zero for LAF. Low level warmth might be an issue but probably not worth getting too worked up about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A rain maker? I must have read the maps wrong, from day 4-7 on the euro the 850s were below zero even south of STL the entire time. How does LAF get rain It's warming up pretty rapidly by Day 7 in the 850 layer as far as I can tell with a deep southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's warming up pretty rapidly by Day 7 in the 850 layer as far as I can tell with a deep southerly flow. I think we are talking about the day 5-6 storm. but maybe the day 8 one..but that would be the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The Euro has me below freezing for the 850 on Tuesday but shows above freezing from 00z thru18z. before crashing hard by 00z Wednesday. I am not much over though. Just a degree or two Celsius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The Euro has me below freezing for the 850 on Tuesday but shows above freezing from 00z thru18z. before crashing hard by 00z Wednesday. I am not much over though. Just a degree or two Celsius. It's kinda pointless this far out but can you tell what the freezing level/wet bulb height is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 looks like several of the gfs ensemble members are also relatively north and warm for next week's 'storm'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Don't forget Henry M. He made one of the dumbest sounding forecast calls last night when he said the Ohio Valley low would essentially "dominate the coastal" low and would shaft Long Island and Philly. Seriously, Henry M needs a refresher course in dynamic meteorology. As bad as JB can be, at least he's still respected for his knowledge in the field, doesn't ride models, and often interjects his own met-based theories. That's also why he's quoted, and scrutinized so much. Henry on the other hand, is such a joke he's not even worth the effort to scrutinize. Henry is a professional model commentator. He rarely offers anything off script of what the models are showing, and when he does attempt to improvise you end up with the kind of commentary he gave last night. I've said before, 90% of the weenies on this board could do what henry does...and about half of those could do it better. In fairness, I understand his wheelhouse is severe wx. That may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As bad as JB can be, at least he's still respected for his knowledge in the field, doesn't ride models, and often interjects his own met-based theories. That's also why he's quoted, and scrutinized so much. Henry on the other hand, is such a joke he's not even worth the effort to scrutinize. Henry is a professional model commentator. He rarely offers anything off script of what the models are showing, and when he does attempt to improvise you end up with the kind of commentary he gave last night. I've said before, 90% of the weenies on this board could do what henry does...and about half of those could do it better. In fairness, I understand his wheelhouse is severe wx. That may be. Speaking of Henry M... Anyone with the time should give this a quick read--positive or negative comments are welcome. I hope everyone thinks about this. We all bust, but we all can be better weather enthusiasts and meteorologists. And the model bashing needs to stop unless you know how they work to begin with--or have a reason to bash them. http://www.americanw...models-so-good/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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