Midwest Thanksgiving Storm...

[Powerball]

[The_Global_Warmer]

Storm Thread guys: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/798-midwest-thanksgiving-storm/

[JoMo]

Great, you just jinxed it.

[Chicago Storm]

No love for the lakes?

[LizardMafia]

Great, you just jinxed it.

We're screwed now..

Storm cancel.. (j/k)

[JoMo]

Experimental FIM has a storm that deepens rapidly even, just has it faster.

[Powerball]

Great, you just jinxed it.

It's only November, I'll take my chances.

[buckeye]

hard to tell....but it would seem the UKie agrees with a storm, but probably further west

[buckeye]

well it will be interesting when the 12z euro updates on accuwx. It has parameters such as snowfall, 2m temps, etc...all the way through 240.

[snowstormcanuck]

well it will be interesting when the 12z euro updates on accuwx. It has parameters such as snowfall, 2m temps, etc...all the way through 240.

You have access to the ensembles?

[buckeye]

You have access to the ensembles?

not for awhile....quite honestly i'm not sure what time it updates.

[buckeye]

hard to tell....but it would seem the UKie agrees with a storm, but probably further west

one major diff between the ukie and the euro at 144, the euro has a 1038 high pressing down thru wyoming while the ukie has virtually no HP in the rockies at all.

[JoMo]

The Euro ensemble mean can be found here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/

But the maps are of course terrible.

[csnavywx]

one major diff between the ukie and the euro at 144, the euro has a 1038 high pressing down thru wyoming while the ukie has virtually no HP in the rockies at all.

With an arctic airmass back there, this is almost a no brainer.

[snowstormcanuck]

not for awhile....quite honestly i'm not sure what time it updates.

Harry usually comes out with them around 330 or 4. So I'd guess around then. If it shows anything good, do tell. If it's further west than the OP EURO, I don't want to hear about it.

[BowMeHunter]

well it will be interesting when the 12z euro updates on accuwx. It has parameters such as snowfall, 2m temps, etc...all the way through 240.

Coldest 850's in the country at hr 186 are right in Ohio only @ -16/20

How much does the accuwx cost? Does it come with anything else cool? Hows the radars?

[buckeye]

Harry usually comes out with them around 330 or 4. So I'd guess around then. If it shows anything good, do tell. If it's further west than the OP EURO, I don't want to hear about it.

i just checked....no ensembles for me on accuwx. But i can still get all the other stuff.

when you look at the ukie, euro, and ggem at 144.... I think the smart horse to bet on is a further west solution, a track thru the far western great lakes.....just a hunch.

[snowstormcanuck]

i just checked....no ensembles for me on accuwx. But i can still get all the other stuff.

when you look at the ukie, euro, and ggem at 144.... I think the smart horse to bet on is a further west solution, a track thru the far western great lakes.....just a hunch.

No problem. JoMo posted that link that we can use.

I agree about the further west solution being the smart bet. I take solace in two things though. 1) EURO has been jumping around run to run, so nothing's set in stone right now and 2) last time the EURO and GGEM tried to blow up a monster storm without the GFS being on board (Nov 5-6 phantom storm), GFS schooled both of them. I'd like that trend to continue.

[buckeye]

Coldest 850's in the country at hr 186 are right in Ohio only @ -16/20

How much does the accuwx cost? Does it come with anything else cool? Hows the radars?

back when i was 90% weenie and 10% hobbiest, all i cared about was the columns...some of the models. Now that im 75% weenie and 15% hobbiest....i actually skip days reading jb and instead use it more for the models. Very detailed. The only models that are not represented very well on accuwx are the ukie and canadian....for some strange reason. The gfs, and nam have a 'rapid update' site that seems to update a few minutes faster than ncep. Radars and surface obs are really good as well. And of cours, the euro is killer now. cost is about $25 per month. of course it's a business expense....

[wxdudemike]

Coldest 850's in the country at hr 186 are right in Ohio only @ -16/20

How much does the accuwx cost? Does it come with anything else cool? Hows the radars?

It's 25/mo unless you do annual payment then it works out just to just under 21/mo. I've had it since late Sept and absolutely love it. Great to have all those variable for the Euro and it even has some other nice odd ball ones for models like the GFS. I get hooked on JBs videos every now and then, but try not to Radar maps and stuff are pretty similar to the free site I think, but I could be wrong. I pretty much just use it for the Euro. You can also get Euro meteograms and SKEW-T charts along with text data.

[BowMeHunter]

back when i was 90% weenie and 10% hobbiest, all i cared about was the columns...some of the models. Now that im 75% weenie and 15% hobbiest....i actually skip days reading jb and instead use it more for the models. Very detailed. The only models that are not represented very well on accuwx are the ukie and canadian....for some strange reason. The gfs, and nam have a 'rapid update' site that seems to update a few minutes faster than ncep. Radars and surface obs are really good as well. And of cours, the euro is killer now. cost is about $25 per month. of course it's a business expense....

Thanks much man! Tempted to check it out but it would kill me to give up SV'S instant precip/ect with the Euro.. Sucks as the only thing I use (which is my own fault) on SV is pretty much the Euro but I think for 30 bucks it's worth its price in gold alone.. Guess what I really want is a good radar but 25 bucks is a lil steep just for that... I dunno.

[buckeye]

Thanks much man! Tempted to check it out but it would kill me to give up SV'S instant precip/ect with the Euro.. Sucks as the only thing I use (which is my own fault) on SV is pretty much the Euro but I think for 30 bucks it's worth its price in gold alone.. Guess what I really want is a good radar but 25 bucks is a lil steep just for that... I dunno.

no prob.

anyways it updated and seems much less impressive for some reason. For instance the low centers over N. MI at 174 and is 996mb. Coldest temps over the OV and lower/mid lakes are low to mid 20's....but by 240 moderation already begins creeping in from the sw and we head to the mid 30s. Granted, we are talking 20 degrees or so below normal, but only briefly. Snowfall totals hadn't updated....although thats usually a joke anyways that far out.

[wxdudemike]

no prob.

anyways it updated and seems much less impressive for some reason. For instance the low centers over N. MI at 174 and is 996mb. Coldest temps over the OV and lower/mid lakes are low to mid 20's....but by 240 moderation already begins creeping in from the sw and we head to the mid 30s. Granted, we are talking 20 degrees or so below normal, but only briefly. Snowfall totals hadn't updated....although thats usually a joke anyways that far out.

See those 10M wind gusts at 50kts for a good chunk of the OV behind the storm?

[BowMeHunter]

You have access to the ensembles?

This is from the SNE board.. Love them.

The euro ensembles have a lot of spread it seems, but do resemble the op run. It has, what looks like the main low near the Lakes, and then you can envision some sort of a triple point over sne. It is a little colder than the op, but it's also starting to latch onto the storm idea. Previous runs practically had a fropa, and there still might be members indicating this. If the secondary indeed popped into sne, I doubt the 540 line would also end up over sne.

[BowMeHunter]

no prob.

anyways it updated and seems much less impressive for some reason. For instance the low centers over N. MI at 174 and is 996mb. Coldest temps over the OV and lower/mid lakes are low to mid 20's....but by 240 moderation already begins creeping in from the sw and we head to the mid 30s. Granted, we are talking 20 degrees or so below normal, but only briefly. Snowfall totals hadn't updated....although thats usually a joke anyways that far out.

You get the ensembles also? I don't think I do on SV or else I'm just missing it. I don't think there is snowfall totals either on SV.. Hmm.. And you wait about an hr after the run to get the precip maps and such?

[JoMo]

The Euro ensemble mean can be found here:

http://www.ecmwf.int...rts/medium/eps/

But the maps are of course terrible.

This has updated, only thing 'useful' is the 850 MB temps.

[prinsburg_wx]

since someone posted the FIM...here is JMA

[BowMeHunter]

Wonder if raleighwx has the euro ensem's? Guess I could go poke around..

[LizardMafia]

IND hinting at colder weather for around turkey day..

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY

GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE USED A BLEND...BUT TRENDED THE PROGRESSION

SLIGHTLY SLOWER DUE TO THE RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE

EASTERN PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS SET UP

OFTEN SLOWS THE ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTS.

WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY

MONDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE. LOOKING FOR

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP ACROSS

THE STATE...BRINGING BIG CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH

VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN HIGH

TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING ONLY NEAR FREEZING. NORTHWEST WINDS

EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF

INDIANA. GIVEN THIS...CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES WILL BE

POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

[JoMo]

Wonder if raleighwx has the euro ensem's? Guess I could go poke around..

Just the mean

ECMWF Ensemble Images (updates around 4:30am (0z), 4:30pm (12z)