NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 5

[RowanBrandon]

Can someone post the clown map when it becomes available?

[LocoAko]

im kinda laughing rite now because you look at ensembles and it fully supports the op and i find it hard to believe that there wrong also i think hpc is covering there arse by throwing models out til the euro comes out if you ask me

Yeah, the HPC totally has an agenda and is lying about there being errors.

Do you people believe what you write sometimes?

[tombo82685]

Can someone post the clown map when it becomes available?

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

[Kingwill]

So the HPC just wanted to throw a buzz kill in to ruin everyones mood that was lifted by the GFS..talk about scrooge..

[RowanBrandon]

10"-12". Oh. My. God.

[Snow_Miser]

So the HPC just wanted to throw a buzz kill in to ruin everyones mood that was lifted by the GFS..talk about scrooge..

They heavily rely only on the Euro. When the Euro showed it it was great, when the GFS shows it, it's "garbage."

[Tom]

10"-12". Oh. My. God.

you do realize this run is being thrown out due to initialization errors

[Kingwill]

They heavily rely only on the Euro. When the Euro showed it it was great, when the GFS shows it, it's "garbage."

yeah, I hope Euro nails the area to see what there next excuse is..

[Analog96]

you do realize this run is being thrown out due to initialization errors

And what happens if the initialization is "better" and 18Z shows the same thing? Nobody can really be sure what the GFS would have done without these errors.

[SnowGoose69]

And what happens if the initialization is "better" and 18Z shows the same thing? Nobody can really be sure what the GFS would have done without these errors.

The Euro will shift like 50 miles west and leave everyone hanging...thats the worst thing it can do in reality is just come a tad west...if it goes well west or east at least we know..

[Radders]

who's to say the initialization error may have tamed the solution? We really don't know at the end of the day.

[bass28]

Yeah, the HPC totally has an agenda and is lying about there being errors.

Do you people believe what you write sometimes?

if you can read a model which i hope you can looks to match up pretty well to current H5 in the us to me,they have been burned so many times that they will applause anything to save it and say its wrong so nobody panics and tv mets start saying big storm coming blah blah its christmas eve it will be a mass rush today if they did that since everything is closed tomorrow.

[LVblizzard]

Funny thing is, P001 probably has the right idea.

[Tom]

And what happens if the initialization is "better" and 18Z shows the same thing? Nobody can really be sure what the GFS would have done without these errors.

I hope the errors are in our favor and arent showing enough snow I just wanted to point it out to him to make sure he doesn't take it at "face value"

[Collegestudent11]

Yeah, the HPC totally has an agenda and is lying about there being errors.

Do you people believe what you write sometimes?

I think it is the frustration with HPC in general. They have gotten some events perfectly, and some were simply head scratcher. It just goes to show you how tough forecasting is, and that it isnt a walk in the park.

[Vandy]

Nobody can really be sure what the GFS would have done without these errors.

If you know there's errors then the reasonable thing to do is to throw it out. It's not like this is the last model run before the storm hits.

[Sundog]

And what happens if the initialization is "better" and 18Z shows the same thing? Nobody can really be sure what the GFS would have done without these errors.

Do they say exactly what the errors were?

[Kingwill]

And what happens if the initialization is "better" and 18Z shows the same thing? Nobody can really be sure what the GFS would have done without these errors.

exactly 18 z and 0Z will be huge to see if those "errors" made a difference..

[Snow_Miser]

yeah, I hope Euro nails the area to see what there next excuse is..

LOL now wouldn't THAT be funny! "Every single model run had initialization problems. Discard all of them."

[Bluescat1]

I say we are where the systems can be tracked with WV and radar. The players are on the field and real time seems to resemble the models. It still comes down to timing and for those of us that love a good storm I would add a little luck.

[Isotherm]

We'll see about the intialization problems, I don't necessarily buy into it. 12Z Euro should be interesting.

[Sundog]

Well son of a b**ch. Ensemble individuals are literally lock step with OP. How is this possible if the OP was wrong?

[Collegestudent11]

Funny thing is, P001 probably has the right idea.

They are almost in sync.

[jm1220]

Funny thing is, P001 probably has the right idea.

This error must have been insane to make almost every ensemble member lurch west like that. I think it has to be more than just an error.

[Analog96]

If you know there's errors then the reasonable thing to do is to throw it out. It's not like this is the last model run before the storm hits.

All I'm saying is that it's really impossible to know what the GFS would have done without the errors, so to just say that it's "definitely too fatr West" is not necessarily correct.

[SnowGoose69]

who's to say the initialization error may have tamed the solution? We really don't know at the end of the day.

I posted that in the main thread, for all we know maybe the GFS would have come 50 miles more west WITHOUT the error

[Snow_Miser]

This error must have been insane to make almost every ensemble member lurch west like that. I think it has to be more than just an error.

Interesting error...

[Zelocita Weather]

Funny thing is, P001 probably has the right idea.

So your telling me that 11/12 members now have a significant hit???

[green tube]

would the 18z be impacted by the 12 z issues?

[bass28]

wait for the JMA from algreek you guys will like it.