FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run? The holding back of closed lows on the Euro isn't the same as it normally is in this case. When we talk about the Euro holding it back its usually on a major 3 or 4 contour cutoff in which you have the jetstream riding over it in the Pac. Northwest, leaving a wobbling closed low in the Southwest days at a time. Thats the bias of the Euro holding energy back. This time, we don't have that. We have a totally progressive southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run? If so, I would think it would pick up on that in the next run having new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So, has the Euro's bias of holding energy back been an error? In other words, has the Euro mistakingly slowed the southern stream energy down and thus allowed a phase w/ each run? usually that bias is more associated with cut off southwest lows that drop in from the northern stream not so much these types of systems. Could the Euro flip, of course it is a model. I want to look at the full suite of 00z data not make any judgments off of a regional scale model heavily influenced by boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 guys (and gals)..........we really are in UNchartered territory already with this thing. Can anyone (including mets) recall as many consecutive runs of the Euro where NO other model shows a phased solution, this close to an event? I would think this has never happened, but I could be wrong. Very very interesting. Every model shows a phased solution, it's a question of when and where. The 0z nam shouldn't be totally discounted imo because one of the reasons it arrives at this solution is it's faster with the southwest shortwave from the start. This causes a different interaction with the northern stream and not the phase/bomb we want. It might be wrong but it's a little worrisome it's faster from the very start. Hopefully the rest of the guidance doesn't follow suite. Indeed, hpc just updated as I was finished writing this post MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1019 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010 VALID DEC 23/0000 UTC THRU DEC 26/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z/23 NAM EVALUATION ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION. ...SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THIS PERIOD... THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z/22 ECMWF WITH THIS IMPULSE...SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH ENERGY TO THE NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST EARLIER THAN THE EC. ...BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE WEST COAST... THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE 12Z/22 ECMWF WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS THE HANDLING OF THE WAVE OFF CALIFORNIA DAY 3. THE NAM IS FASTER AND MORE DEVELOPED THAN THE EC WITH THIS IMPULSE...DELAYING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ONSHORE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The holding back of closed lows on the Euro isn't the same as it normally is in this case. When we talk about the Euro holding it back its usually on a major 3 or 4 contour cutoff in which you have the jetstream riding over it in the Pac. Northwest, leaving a wobbling closed low in the Southwest days at a time. Thats the bias of the Euro holding energy back. This time, we don't have that. We have a totally progressive southern stream. Robert - Does the fact that the Euro has shown basicially an identical solution for the last 6 or 7 runs increase your confidence in it's solution? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The past runs of the GFS and Euro have been big, but tonights 00z runs are HUGE. We will either be cliffdiving or unable to sleep because of excitement. Needless to say, I'd take the euro over the NAM any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New Inaccuweather map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New Inaccuweather map Someone likes the Euro... Radio show is live btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 New Inaccuweather map I would take Frank Strait's maps with a grain less salt than those of HM and JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 00z GFS initializing s/w stronger than 12z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 0z GFS is initialized... Time to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 00z is pretty much hand in hand with 18z of the GFS out to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Re: Radio Show -- I guess it doesn't matter to any of the guests that the 0z NAM savaged QPF totals for most of the south ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 waiting on the color maps but the 0z rgem doesn't seem to have as much interaction as the nam does at hour 48 with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The holding back of closed lows on the Euro isn't the same as it normally is in this case. When we talk about the Euro holding it back its usually on a major 3 or 4 contour cutoff in which you have the jetstream riding over it in the Pac. Northwest, leaving a wobbling closed low in the Southwest days at a time. Thats the bias of the Euro holding energy back. This time, we don't have that. We have a totally progressive southern stream. If so, I would think it would pick up on that in the next run having new data. usually that bias is more associated with cut off southwest lows that drop in from the northern stream not so much these types of systems. Could the Euro flip, of course it is a model. I want to look at the full suite of 00z data not make any judgments off of a regional scale model heavily influenced by boundary conditions. Thanks for the responses. I had always remembered that on cut-off lows as well. I didn't realize that progressive SLPs didn't have that error. And I highly doubt the Euro will flip FWIW. I always find it interesting when a model hiccups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I would take Frank Strait's maps with a grain less salt than those of HM and JB. He's actually a solid met...not a hypecaster like JB or Henry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 He's actually a solid met...not a hypecaster like JB or Henry. and he actually focuses on the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Re: Radio Show -- I guess it doesn't matter to any of the guests that the 0z NAM savaged QPF totals for most of the south ...... No SE mets this time so the focus is VA north. Let's keep them on their toes and get some SE peeps calling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Robert - Does the fact that the Euro has shown basicially an identical solution for the last 6 or 7 runs increase your confidence in it's solution? Just curious. yes. I thnk looking at the NAm and comparing it to euro I see how in 42 hours the NAM is already starting to interact with the southern stream and pretty far north, which begins to shear the southern stream My main point all along is the strength of the southern stream and its resilience, On the Euro the southern stream heads toward southern La, but not on tonights NAM. Its a different interaction between those 2 models with the streams. Also on the nam its northern stream has probably 2 different shortwaves, and it allows the first wave to pick up and start the phasing then later you see more shortwaves come in toward the Midwest. Guess we have to wait to see the Euro and what it has in store tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Out to 24 it looks a little stronger with the energy our west then it's18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Oh boy -- at 18, it's a bit faster and a bit farther north...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @30 it looks pretty much identical to 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @39 looks similar to the 18z of the GFS more moisture associated with the low in Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @42 our low is further north it's sitting east of Wichita Falls...and @45 it's heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Taking a strong turn south @48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The gfs out to 42 looks great. About the same as the Euro at that time. The northern stream is really digging and the southern stream looks healthy. We'll see if it digs pretty far south like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Listening to the radio show, I hear the drum banging for a pattern shift. I see a pattern relaxation, but the CPC ensemble data for the NAO appears to head down again after trying to go neutral. The GFS runs all day seem to be trying to reform the block in early January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What I see thus far is that the pacific ridge is more amplified, but the shortwave is a little bit further north than the 18z gfs run. I think we will get a slightly earlier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Heard that Eric Thomas with WBTV is calling for 1 inch to 2 inch accumulation down in Charlotte. Is that even worth discussing? A virtual non-event if his forecast verifies. A 1-2 inch snow in Charlotte on Christmas night is actually a pretty big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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