eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 20hr nam has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 10" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Lots of furniture floating down the Potomac tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRRR has the heavier stuff southwest of me. not expecting much IMBY. Enjoy your flood southerners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Radar looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA...VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THEFOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY...EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY...FREDERICK MD...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...NORTHWEST HOWARD...NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE ANDWASHINGTON. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...CLARKE...CULPEPER...EASTERN LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX... FREDERICK VA ( ) ...MADISON...NORTHERNFAUQUIER...NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...PAGE...PRINCEWILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...RAPPAHANNOCK...ROCKINGHAM...SHENANDOAH...SOUTHERN FAUQUIER...WARREN AND WESTERN LOUDOUN.IN WEST VIRGINIA...BERKELEY...EASTERN GRANT...EASTERNMINERAL...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON...MORGAN...WESTERNGRANT AND WESTERN MINERAL.* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT* THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ( ) ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY ANDTONIGHT. REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS ( ) WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 could you imagine the suicides if this was a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 If we can manage some sun this afternoon, even an hour's worth we're golden. I like me some nocturnal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unusual weather situation for mid-June unfolding at present. A closed 500 mb low with very strong dynamics is currently centered over Lake Michigan. This system is progged to move southeastward and cross West Virginia and Virginia late tonight into Friday...accompanied by a surface low and cold front. Meanwhile...a stationary front has set up shop over our region and will not move a great deal until the surface low passes. South of the warm front...air temperatures will likely warm quite a bit today with low 90s expected in central Virginia...a stark contrast to the mid 70s expected over northeastern Maryland. Between these two areas a great deal of uncertainty exists about the actual high...as the front is expected to shift northeast a bit more this morning...and then shift back southwest later this afternoon and this evening. Thus...while we are forecasting near 80 in Baltimore and mid 80s in DC...its not impossible this forecast will bust by several degrees either side of that. While some scattered showers and isolated thunder continues at this time...we expect some clearing to occur in much of the area for a time later this morning between the current weak shortwave passing across the area and the main system. Southerly flow will continue to bring very moist air north into locations south of the front...while winds aloft will be increasing as the low approaches...resulting in better wind threat as well as more organizational possibilities due to better shear.End result...we have a really good shot at some pretty strong thunderstorms later today and this evening...mainly in areas near and south of the warm front. The SPC has increased the threat to enhanced risk across southwestern portions of the CWA while theslight risk has been expanded across DC metro towards Baltimore. That having been said...this again depends on the position thefront takes later today...with a more southwestward shift likely to reduce the severe threat in DC and Baltimore. Main severe threat is damaging winds given strong winds aloft and warmatmosphere limiting hail potential...but near the stationaryfront an isolated tornado couldn`t be ruled out. Besides the severe threat...we also have potential heavy rain to deal with. Some guidance has been hitting the heavy rain threat hard...the NAM and ECMWF being notable among them. PW`s being expected to reach near 2" this afternoon...with potential for training along the frontal boundary already in place...suggests we will have a threat for flash flooding despite the recent dry weather. Therefore...will raise flash flood threat shortly. Flash flooding threat is highest this evening...but kept watch going thru the night given expectation of continued rain as the system pushes across the area. The system will slide southeast of us through the day Friday with rain diminishing and some clearing likely later on. Highs will be notably cooler across the board with the Canadian air mass pushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH...WV...VA...SW PA AND WRN MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SRN TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS. ...UPPER OH VALLEY/SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO FIRST INITIATE AROUND LAKE ERIE AROUND MIDDAY WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ORGANIZING AND MOVING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION MAY REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...EXTENDING FROM NRN VA NWWD INTO SW PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITH LOWER 70S F POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE DCAPE. THE WIND PROFILE IS FORECAST TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN ORGANIZE AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE WRF-NSSL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL. HAVE INTRODUCED AN ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM ERN OH SEWD INTO CNTRL VA WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF WIND DAMAGE REPORTS APPEARS TO THE GREATEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 9z HRRRx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRRx looks dry, only 2-3" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 HRRRx looks dry, only 2-3" maybe? it doesn't run through the pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 nice lightning strikes with the cell just to my north about to hit my backyard. our larger area of rain/storms looks healthy this morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 it doesn't run through the pivot. The 4km NAM is nuts. If this was winter we'd be talking about a souped-up Alberta Clipper that is taking a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 DC split working its magic, Eastern Shore is popping, Northern MD is performing like usual, and S/W of DC will get its turn tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 got my transportation ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Nice looking storms on radar to the west fizzling to showers by the time they get here. Par for the course this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Having trouble finding the line that is in OH/WPA on the models (HRRR/4kNAM)... They all had activitiy going up closer to noon in that area... Could this have any impact downstream'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Having trouble finding the line that is in OH/WPA on the models (HRRR/4kNAM)... They all had activitiy going up closer to noon in that area... Could this have any impact downstream'? Yeah, the models didn't catch that well. HRRR has some semblance of it but the real game fires up closer to Toledo later on, as you say. Here's the 11z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 sun is out to my west now that the batch of showers has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Sun peeking out in Frederick County and WV Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 WOW new SPC update.... DC in ENH? wow disco is pretty noooiceee: CONSENSUS OF OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING BOWING COMPLEX TRAVERSING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...POSING THE RISK OF RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Enhanced risk now along the Potomac River. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Pretty important differences in the HRRR and 4km NAM and how tonight plays out. The HRRR brings the MCS in earlier, as you can see in a few posts before, to IAD by 9pm. Here is the dewpoints and LIs at that time. Still pretty juicy/unstable. Despite what the NAM does with the crazy pivot, it brings the line in later and has really eroded the low-levels with a strong easterly fetch off the ocean. DCA (or thereabouts) is 64/61 at midnight as the line is near IAD. (showing a bit earlier here at 10pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 New HRRR sees the activity out west a bit better, will be interesting to see if that affects things downstream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 congrats southerners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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