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Friday 3/4 "Last Gasp?" - Model Disco and Obs


DDweatherman

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Time to test and see if my old days of topic starting success still exist. Have had a few go my way over the years. Here's to the good times.

Euro vs CMC? Ian is celebrating that's for sure if he's rooting not for no snow and is hugging dear euro.

#itshappening?

To be fair, I really don't care what happens other than the fact that Fri morning is my on call so it'll suck to get up at 5a for something that is lame. By March the last thing I really want is snow.

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Comparing the 0z euro run to today's 12z it was actually a decent shift NW (and a bit quicker). The 0z para was a bit (and I mean a little bit) NW of the op. I guess it was a good run and there's plenty of time to not assume a northern edge fringe job is highly likely. 

 

Not a very exciting storm either way. I'll be happy with whatever and hope for the best. Then I'll be full on rooting for 60's and sunshine for the rest of the month. 

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Comparing the 0z euro run to today's 12z it was actually a decent shift NW (and a bit quicker). The 0z para was a bit (and I mean a little bit) NW of the op. I guess it was a good run and there's plenty of time to not assume a northern edge fringe job is highly likely. 

 

Not a very exciting storm either way. I'll be happy with whatever and hope for the best. Then I'll be full on rooting for 60's and sunshine for the rest of the month. 

 

Think we could will this into a semi exciting 4-6? 

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Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha

 

I wonder how much of an effect sea surface temperatures have on this storm.  The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic have both cooled considerably since just before the blizzard, and large areas now have negative SST anomalies.

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I wonder how much of an effect sea surface temperatures have on this storm.  The Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic have both cooled considerably since just before the blizzard, and large areas now have negative SST anomalies.

 

I wouldn't think SST's matter much. Maybe if it was a coastal climber or something like that. This is a progressive vort that never really turns. Precip will mostly be tied to dynamics with the vort pass. 

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I know very little about verification scores so take this with a grain of salt....The latest scores I see floating around are for N Hem h5.  The Euro kills it.  Euro can nail things at h5 in the Northern Hemisphere but we are asking it to be just as accurate with surface temps and location of a vort pass over a geographical area the size of a gnat when compared to the N Hem. 

 

Im just a weenie weather/model watcher but I have not been impressed this winter with the euro... 

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Does this mean your IN?

Just a statement in general. The euro was the first model to show a northern track with this giving us nearly warning level snow and now it's south. It was also one of the models that gave us 6-10" during the bust event back in early February. It was also one guidance member that backed off on snow totals leading up to the Jan 22/23 event...only to be too dry. It's a good model but it certainly has its weaknesses.

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Someone will get snow in the Mid-Atlantic! That makes it Legit! May be south of you and me, but it could snow! Legit threat.. How much.. I dunno! I tell ya what though, I would not even be here if it were not for the Euro showing snow! So let's stop the debate on whether there should be a thread and how much the Euro vs others suck and let's focus on what they do say and wishcast the Euro of a few days back on top of us as the real event! Nino needs to do it ninoing and pump up teh low a bit on moisture!

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Too much reliance on the euro. The euro has not done well with several events this year. It's one of many pieces of forecast guidance available. It has it's pros and cons like all other guidance.

No offense but you've said the CMC was worth considering before. LOL.

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